低孔低渗储层渗透率测井解释模型研究

采用岩心分析数据与测井曲线相结合的方法,引入泥质含量参数配合声波时差进行多元线性回归分析。建立鄂尔多斯盆地研究区低孔低渗储层渗透率测井解释模型。根据泥质含量特征二次分类后进行多元线性回归,建立两个渗透率测井解释模型相关性良好,对应于研究区两种不同的沉积微相特征;测井解释渗透率与岩心实测渗透率匹配良好,解释模型满足研究区精度要求。在沉积微相背景约束条件下,对研究区储层选择合理参数多元线性回归建立渗透率测井解释模型,可以使低孔低渗储层渗透率解释达到良好应用效果。     

不同变质程度煤的发热量与水分和灰分的多元线性回归分析

发热量是煤质评价和热工计算的重要指标。通过收集内蒙、山西等矿区煤的水分、灰分、挥发分及发热量数据,根据挥发分高低对煤变质程度进行分级,并在此基础上,建立煤的发热量与水分、灰分的多元线性回归分析模型。研究结果表明,研究区煤的发热量与水分、灰分呈反比关系,且随着煤变质程度的降低,水分对发热量的影响逐渐增大,而灰分的影响逐渐降低。运用多元线性回归模型对其他矿区煤的发热量进行预测,并将预测值与实测值进行对比来验证模型的正确性,结果显示,该模型在不同矿区煤的发热量的预测中具有适用性。     

双误差回归模型在ICP-MS测定饮用水中锶的不确定度评定的简化应用

在计算电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定饮用水中锶的浓度(x)时,由于标准系列配制和仪器检测过程中信号(y)漂移产生的不确定度会传递给最终的计算结果。普通的一次或多次线性拟合结果不能真实地反映对于x、y值都含误差的数据拟合情况。文章对标准曲线进行了双误差回归计算,从双误差回归线性方程推导出校准曲线拟合过程产生不确定度的计算公式,建立了方法检出限与曲线拟合参数(x、y、曲线截距和斜率)及其相关不确定度之间的关系式,依据误差连续传递公式及不确定度分量计算公式简化了合成不确定度的表达式。从合成不确定度计算公式中可得出,水样中锶含量的浓度越低,其对应的不确定度越大;标准系列配制过程不细致、仪器灵敏度低,方法检出限越差,与实际测试情况符合。     

基于GIS的兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性分析

频繁发生的灾害愈来愈对人类社会造成巨大影响, 遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术日益在减灾行动中发挥重要的作用. 兰州区域地质岩性、构造断裂、地震活动带、地表侵蚀强烈和地形起伏破碎等因素造成了兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害的发育, 夏季暴雨、人类工程活动等诱发下灾害频繁, 风险加剧. 针对兰州地区滑坡与泥石流等山地灾害对区域社会经济的影响, 通过建立区域滑坡与泥石流灾害的空间数据库, 在GIS技术辅助下实现了专家经验模型和Logistic模型对滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性的预测, 其中滑坡Logistic模型准确性达到85.3%, 专家经验模型准确性达到74.2%; 泥石流Logistic危险性预模型准确性达到80.5%, 专家经验模型准确性达到90.5%. 随着研究的深入, 综合遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术的灾害研究与应用将在灾害防治中发挥重要的作用.     

Modelling real earthquake activity with reverse engineering based on evolutionary computation methods

Hazard assessment of dangerous natural phenomena is critical because of their evident results concerning loss of human life and property, especially in dense populated areas. Earthquakes are probably the most devastating phenomenon since their immediate and long-term consequences are severe. This study is focused on the earthquake data analysis in different regions of Greece, characterised by different seismicity levels. In specific, a novel model is proposed based on evolutionary computation methods, such as symbolic regression by genetic programming and genetic algorithms in order to elucidate preliminary hidden mathematical relations and patterns found in the seismological signals under study. Furthermore, the model is calibrated using reverse engineering and closes the loop from the data collection to initial hypothesis. In this way, the model formation is achieved. The presented simulation results qualitatively and quantitatively reveal some of the fundamental characteristics of each studied geographical region located in Greece that stem from its geodynamic properties.     

基于指数平滑法与回归分析相结合的滑坡预测

滑坡时间预报研究是滑坡研究中的一个热门课题。以实际监测数据为基础,把指数平滑法与非线性回归分析法结合起来;以滑坡的变形值和变形速率为判据,对滑坡进行时间失稳的动态跟踪预报。根据某滑坡的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行了建模和预测,预测结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度,可以应用于实际工程。     

矿体储量及其计算参数的误差公式和金属储量误差的回归模型

据个旧锡矿开发勘探资料,在计算机上实现不同网度稀空试验的结果、讨论了误差估计问题,提出了矿石品位、矿体厚度、矿体投影面积、矿体体积和金属储量等误差估值公式。以实例建立了不同穿透样锡品位变化系数值的金属储量误差与工程数量的回归模型,并将其应用于金属储量误差估计和工程效果的预测。     

Soulèvement et plissement tectoniques révélés par analyse mathématique empirique de profils longitudinaux de rivières : un cas à TaiwanEmpirical mathematical analysis of longitudinal river profiles reveals tectonic uplift and folding: a case in Taiwan

We analyse longitudinal river profiles in southwestern Taiwan. As all necessary data are not available, a physical modelling of river erosion would be subject to large uncertainties. We thus shortcut this modelling and adopt simple empirical exponential equations giving riverbed elevation as a function of downstream distance. We identify a positive altimetric anomaly, which reveals active uplift of an anticline at the front of the fold-and-thrust belt. To cite this article: J. Angelier, R.-F. Chen, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1103–1111.     

单桩沉降的半经验计算法

由单桩的沉降机理导出一种计算软土地基单桩沉降的半理论半经验方法,并根据实测资料的回归、拟合确定经验系数。通过与实测单桩沉降数据的比较,表明该方法的可行性。     

A spatial perspective for predicting enrollment in a regional pharmacy school

Having the ability to predict enrollment is an important task for any school’s recruiting team. The purpose of this study was to identify significant factors that can be used to predict the spatial distribution of enrollments. As a case study, we used East Tennessee State University (ETSU) pharmacy school, a regional pharmacy school located in the Appalachian Mountains. Through the application of a negative binomial regression model, we found that the most important indicators of enrollment volume for the ETSU pharmacy school were Euclidean distance, probability (based on competing pharmacy schools’ prestige, driving distance between schools and home and tuition costs), and the natural barrier of the Appalachian Mountains. Using these factors, together with other control variables, we successfully predicted the spatial distribution of enrollments for ETSU pharmacy school. Interestingly, gender also surfaced as a variable for predicting the pharmacy school’s enrollment. We found female students are more sensitive to the geographic proximity of home to school.