长江口斜压诊断模式三维流场数值模拟

建立了σ坐标系下长江口斜压诊断模式三维流场数学模型,采用k-kl二方程紊流闭合模型求解垂向涡粘系数,计算域内恒定、非均匀盐度场反映了计算域密度斜压效应。验证结果表明,斜压诊断模式的模拟成果较切合实际。模型成功复演了长江口水域由往复流向旋转流过渡的流场特性;潮波从四条汊道传入后在分汊口附近相遇形成多个会潮点,其位置随着径流的大小、潮汐的强弱、汊道的形态等因素而变化。     

瑞雷波勘探在地下洞穴探测中的应用

利用瑞雷波勘探方法进行地下洞穴探测，在实际处理过程中，对场地所测得的面波频散曲线进行分类、归纳，并利用动力触探曲线对各种特征曲线所反映的地下洞穴情况进行标定，从而确定整个测区洞穴的空间分布规律。     

利用面波频散反演场地参数的Occam法

将Constable等人1987在解释大地电磁测深资料时提出的Occam反演方法应用到面波频散反演之中，其思路是求满足一定的残差条件下的最光滑的模型。从文中反演的几组数据结果来看，该方法在面波反演中的应用效果是令人满意的。     

深厚覆盖层高压旋喷凝结体的宏观力学参数研究

基于现有工程试验资料,通过将高压旋喷凝结体分成成芯凝结体和不成芯凝结体两组材料组成,提出了深厚覆盖层高压旋喷凝结体的统计力学模型。该模型除能反映成芯凝结体的小尺度力学性质外,还可以反映不成芯凝结体的力学性质,也可考虑试验钻孔中不同芯样获得率的影响。应用随机模拟理论,给出了大体积高喷体内成芯凝结体与不成芯凝结体的空间位置及各小尺度力学参数的抽样方法。并通过结合弹塑性有限元和随机模拟两方法,建立了高喷体宏观力学性质的计算机模拟方法。应用所提三维弹塑性有限元随机模拟方法,分析研究了向家坝水电站深厚覆盖层高压旋喷凝结体的宏观力学参数。     

汶川8.0级地震前BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到的地形变异常现象

地倾斜连续观测是地壳形变观测研究中重要内容。汶川8.0级地震前,布设在四川德阳金河测点的新型BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到了明显的地形变异常现象。分析其观测结果可知,汶川8.0级地震前约半月时间内德阳金河测点的地倾斜运动速度较过去的平均运动水平提高了数十倍,且震前地表快速倾斜的方向在N25°W左右。除此之外,德阳金河BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪测点还观测到较为完整的,对应于可以反映地表应力集中、释放过程的震前地表破裂过程。上述现象为今后研究强震孕育机理提供了重要的信息。介绍与分析了布设在龙门山断裂带附近的其它类型地倾斜仪在震前的观测结果。事实证明,BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪在强震前的浅表过程监测中具有重要意义,值得在今后的地震前兆台网工作中进行推广。     

基于PS-DR-DP理论模型的区域资源环境承载力综合评价（英文）

The concepts of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity are important aspects of both academic inquiry and government policy. Although notable results have been achieved in terms of evaluating both these variables, most researchers have utilized a traditional analytical method that incorporates the "pressure-state-response" model. A new approach is proposed in this study for the comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity; applying a "pressure-support", "destructiveness-resilience", and "degradation-promotion"("PS-DR-DP") hexagon interaction theoretical model, we divided carrying capacity into these three pairs of interactive forces which correspond with resource supporting ability, environmental capacity, and risk-disaster resisting ability, respectively. Negative carrying capacity load in this context was defined to include pressure, destructiveness, and degradation, while support, resilience, and promotion comprised positive attributes. The status of regional carrying capacity was then determined via the ratio between positive and negative contribution values, expressed in terms of changes in both hexagonal shape and area that result from interactive forces. In order to test our "PS-DR-DP" theory-based model, we carried out a further empirical study on Beijing over the period between 2010 and 2015. Analytical results also revealed that the city is now close to attaining a perfect state for both resources and environmental carrying capacity; the latter state in Beijing increased from 1.0143 to 1.1411 between 2010 and 2015, an improved carrying capacity despite the fact that population increased by two million. The average contribution value also reached 0.7025 in 2015, indicating that the city approached an optimal loading threshold at this time but still had space for additional carrying capacity. The findings of our analysis provide theoretical support to enable the city of Beijing to control population levels below 23 million by 2020.     

锚固站对BDS自主导航精度的影响分析

介绍了自主导航的轨道确定及时间同步观测方程。以北斗仿真全星座为对象,通过采用仿真星间及卫星与地面锚固站间观测值,进行了60 d自主导航解算,分别探讨了锚固站数量及锚固站观测连续性对北斗卫星导航系统（BDS）3类卫星自主导航精度的影响。结果表明：锚固站数量及观测连续性对RERR及CERR无影响;加入1个锚固站即可显著改进URE结果精度,继续增加锚固站数量虽然可进一步提高URE精度但其改进效果有限;锚固站观测中断时间越长,其对应自主导航精度越低。因此,在BDS自主导航运行模式下应保持较高的锚固站观测频次以保证自主导航精度;另外,锚固站数量及观测连续性对北斗系统3类卫星自主导航精度的影响无显著差异。     

我国短期气候动力预测模式系统的研究及试验

气候和气候异常对我国的国民经济发展具有重大影响,为提高短期气候预测的准确率,研究动力气候模式短期气候预测新技术至关重要.通过近5年的努力,建立了一套出月动力延伸预报模式,海气耦合的全球气候模式(AGCM+OGCM+海冰+高分辨率印度洋-太平洋海盆模式),区域气候模式季和年际尺度的业务动力模式组成的系统.初步把我国的短期气候预测水平由经验统计方法提高到定量和客观分析的水平上.在此基础上,已建成了一个具有物理基础的统计方法与气候动力模式相结合的综合气候预报系统.     

VTI介质多波速度与各向异性系数求取及应用

针对具有垂直对称轴的横向各向同性(VTI)介质,研究了多波速度与地层各向异性系数之间的关系。采用适应大偏移距以及强各向异性介质的双平方根方程,进行速度和各向异性系数分析,并将批量计算与交互解释相结合,实现了高精度各向异性介质多波速度与各向异性系数提取,并形成了一套利用多波地震资料求取地震波纵、横波速度及各向异性系数的方法和软件。所求取的参数可用于多波地震资料处理,提高多波资料的成像质量,也可为地层地质解释提供参考。实际资料的应用效果证明了该方法和软件的正确性及有效性。     

Analysis and simulation of magma mixing processes in 3D

Magma mixing structures from the lava flow of Lesbos (Greece) are analyzed in three dimensions using a technique that, starting from the serial sections of rock cubes, allows the reconstruction of the spatial distribution of magmas inside rocks. Two main kinds of coexisting structures are observed: (i) “active regions” (AR) in which magmas mix intimately generating wide contact surfaces and (ii) “coherent regions” (CR) of more mafic magma that have a globular shape and do not show large deformations. The intensity of mingling is quantified by calculating both the interfacial area (IA) between interacting magmas and the fractal dimension of the reconstructed structures. Results show that the fractal dimension is linearly correlated with the logarithm of interfacial area allowing discrimination among different intensities of mingling.

The process of mingling of magmas is simulated using a three-dimensional chaotic dynamical system consisting of stretching and folding processes. The intensity of mingling is measured by calculating the interfacial area between interacting magmas and the fractal dimension, as for natural magma mixing structures. Results suggest that, as in the natural case, the fractal dimension is linearly correlated with the logarithm of the interfacial area allowing to conclude that magma mixing can be regarded as a chaotic process.

Since chemical exchange and physical dispersion of one magma inside another by stretching and folding are closely related, we performed coupled numerical simulations of chaotic advection and chemical diffusion in three dimensions. Our analysis reveals the occurrence in the same system of “active mixing regions” and “coherent regions” analogous to those observed in nature. We will show that the dynamic processes are able to generate magmas with wide spatial heterogeneity related to the occurrence of magmatic enclaves inside host rocks in both plutonic and volcanic environments.