减P路径下饱和软粘土应力应变性状的试验研究

对汉口某地的淤泥质粘土进行了一系列应力路径试验。试验表明,饱和软粘土的应力应变性状与应力路径密切相关,在各种减P应力路径下的应力比与轴应变之间均存在着良好的双曲线关系,据此,建立了一个和应力路径有关的归一化应力应变双曲线模型。分析了排水试验中的体变特性和不排水试验下的孔压变化特性。     

LP/HT metamorphism as a temporal marker of change of deformation style within the Late Palaeozoic accretionary wedge of central Chile

A Late Palaeozoic accretionary prism, formed at the southwestern margin of Gondwana from Early Carboniferous to Late Triassic, comprises the Coastal Accretionary Complex of central Chile (34–41°S). This fossil accretionary system is made up of two parallel contemporaneous metamorphic belts: a high‐pressure/low temperature belt (HP/LT – Western Series) and a low pressure/high temperature belt (LP/HT – Eastern Series). However, the timing of deformation events associated with the growth of the accretionary prism (successive frontal accretion and basal underplating) and the development of the LP/HT metamorphism in the shallower levels of the wedge are not continuously observed along this paired metamorphic belt, suggesting the former existence of local perturbations in the subduction regime. In the Pichilemu region, a well‐preserved segment of the paired metamorphic belt allows a first order correlation between the metamorphic and deformational evolution of the deep accreted slices of oceanic crust (blueschists and HP greenschists from the Western Series) and deformation at the shallower levels of the wedge (the Eastern Series). LP/HT mineral assemblages grew in response to arc‐related granitic intrusions, and porphyroblasts constitute time markers recording the evolution of deformation within shallow wedge material. Integrated P–T–t–d analysis reveals that the LP/HT belt is formed between the stages of frontal accretion (D₁) and basal underplating of basic rocks (D₂) forming blueschists at c. 300 Ma. A timeline evolution relating the formation of blueschists and the formation and deformation of LP/HT mineral assemblages at shallower levels, combined with published geochronological/thermobarometric/geochemistry data suggests a cause–effect relation between the basal accretion of basic rocks and the deformation of the shallower LP/HT belt. The S₂ foliation that formed during basal accretion initiated near the base of the accretionary wedge at ~30 km depth at c. 308 Ma. Later, the S₂ foliation developed at c. 300 Ma and ~15 km depth shortly after the emplacement of the granitoids and formation of the (LP/HT) peak metamorphic mineral assemblages. This shallow deformation may reflect a perturbation in the long‐term subduction dynamics (e.g. entrance of a seamount), which would in turn have contributed to the coeval exhumation of the nearby blueschists at c. 300 Ma. Finally, ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar cooling ages reveal that foliated LP/HT rocks were already at ~350 °C at c. 292 Ma, indicating a rapid cooling for this metamorphic system.     

Time‐scale of deformation and intertectonic phases revealed by P–T–D–t relationships in the orogenic middle crust of the Orlica‐Śnieżnik Dome,Polish/Czech Central Sudetes

A section of the orogenic middle crust (Orlica‐?nie?nik Dome, Polish/Czech Central Sudetes) was examined to constrain the duration and significance of deformation (D) and intertectonic (I) phases. In the studied metasedimentary synform, three deformation events produced an initial subhorizontal foliation S1 (D₁), a subsequent subvertical foliation S2 (D₂) and a late subhorizontal axial planar cleavage S3 (D₃). The synform was intruded by pre‐, syn‐ and post‐D₂ granitoid sheets. Crystallization–deformation relationships in mica schist samples document I_1–2 garnet–staurolite growth, syn‐D₂ staurolite breakdown to garnet–biotite–sillimanite/andalusite, I_2–3 cordierite blastesis and late‐D₃ chlorite growth. Garnet porphyroblasts show a linear Mn–Ca decrease from the core to the inner rim, a zone of alternating Ca–Y‐ and P‐rich annuli in the inner rim, and a Ca‐poor outer rim. The Ca–Y‐rich annuli probably reflect the occurrence of the allanite‐to‐monazite transition at conditions of the staurolite isograd, whereas the Ca‐poor outer rim is ascribed to staurolite demise. The reconstructed P–T path, obtained by modelling the stability of parageneses and garnet zoning, documents near‐isobaric heating from ~4 kbar/485 °C to ~4.75 kbar/575 °C during I_1–2. This was followed by a progression to 4–5 kbar/580–625 °C and a subsequent pressure decrease to 3–4 kbar during D₂. Pressure decrease below 3 kbar is ascribed to I_2–3, whereas cooling below ~500 °C occurred during D₃. In the dated mica schist sample, garnet rims show strong Lu enrichment, oscillatory Lu zoning and a slight Ca increase. These features are also related to allanite breakdown coeval with staurolite appearance. As Lu‐rich garnet rims dominate the Lu–Hf budget, the 344 ± 3 Ma isochron age is ascribed to garnet crystallization at staurolite grade, near the end of I_1–2. For the dated sample of amphibole–biotite granitoid sheet, a Pb–Pb single zircon evaporation age of 353 ± 1 Ma is related to the onset of plutonic activity. The results suggest a possible Devonian age for D₁, and a Carboniferous burial‐exhumation cycle in mid‐crustal rocks that is broadly coeval with the exhumation of neighbouring HP rocks during D₂. In the light of published ages, a succession of telescoping stages with time spans decreasing from c. 10 to 2–3 Ma is proposed. The initially long period of tectonic quiescence (I_1–2 phase, c. 10 Ma) inferred in the middle crust contrasts with contemporaneous deformation at deeper levels and points to decoupled P–T–D histories within the orogenic wedge. An elevated gradient of ~30 °C km^?1 and assumed high heating rates of c. 20 °C Ma^?1 are explained by the protracted intrusion of granitoid sheets, with or without deformation, whereas fast vertical movements (2–3 Ma, D₂ phase) in the crust require the activity of deformation phases.     

Prediction of hydrological drought durations based on Markov chains: case of the Canadian prairies

Abstract

Hydrological drought durations (lengths) in the Canadian prairies were modelled using the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequences derived from the streamflow series at annual, monthly and weekly time scales. The rivers chosen for the study present high levels of persistence (as indicated by values exceeding 0.95 for lag-1 autocorrelation in weekly SHI sequences), because they encompass large catchment areas (2210–119 000 km²) and traverse, or originate in, lakes. For such rivers, Markov chain models were found to be simple and efficient tools for predicting the drought duration (year, month, or week) based on annual, monthly and weekly SHI sequences. The prediction of drought durations was accomplished at threshold levels corresponding to median flow (Q50) (drought probability, q?=?0.5) to Q95 (drought probability, q?=?0.05) exceedence levels in the SHI sequences. The first-order Markov chain or the random model was found to be acceptable for the prediction of annual drought lengths, based on the Hazen plotting position formula for exceedence probability, because of the small sample size of annual streamflows. On monthly and weekly time scales, the second-order Markov chain model was found to be satisfactory using the Weibull plotting position formula for exceedence probability. The crucial element in modelling drought lengths is the reliable estimation of parameters (conditional probabilities) of the first- and second-order persistence, which were estimated using the notions implicit in the discrete autoregressive moving average class of models. The variance of drought durations is of particular significance, because it plays a crucial role in the accurate estimation of persistence parameters. Although, the counting method of the estimation of persistence parameters was found to be unsatisfactory, it proved useful in setting the initial values and also in subsequent adjustment of the variance-based estimates of persistence parameters. At low threshold levels corresponding to q < 0.20, even the first-order Markov chain can be construed as a satisfactory model for predicting drought durations based on monthly and weekly SHI sequences.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2012. Prediction of hydrological drought durations based on Markov chains in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 705–722.     

Modeling crack propagation path of anisotropic rocks using boundary element method

In a cracked material, the stress intensity factors (SIFs) at the crack tips, which govern the crack propagation and are associated with the strength of the material, are strongly affected by the crack inclination angle and the orientation with respect to the principal direction of anisotropy. In this paper, a formulation of the boundary element method (BEM), based on the relative displacements of the crack tip, is used to determine the mixed‐mode SIFs of isotropic and anisotropic rocks. Numerical examples of the application of the formulation for different crack inclination angles, crack lengths, and degree of material anisotropy are presented. Furthermore, the BEM formulation combined with the maximum circumferential stress criterion is adopted to predict the crack initiation angles and simulate the crack propagation paths. The propagation path in cracked straight through Brazilian disc specimen is numerically predicted and the results of numerical and experimental data compared with the actual laboratory observations. Good agreement is found between the two approaches. The proposed BEM formulation is therefore suitable to simulate the process of crack propagation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches

Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Constraining the conditions of Barrovian metamorphism in Sikkim,India: P–T–t paths of garnet crystallization in the Lesser Himalayan Belt

Garnet crystallization in metapelites from the Barrovian garnet and staurolite zones of the Lesser Himalayan Belt in Sikkim is modelled utilizing Gibbs free energy minimization, multi‐component diffusion theory and a simple nucleation and growth algorithm. The predicted mineral assemblages and garnet‐growth zoning match observations remarkably well for relatively tight, clockwise metamorphic P–T paths that are characterized by prograde gradients of ～30 °C kbar^?1 for garnet‐zone rocks and ～20 °C kbar^?1 for rocks from the staurolite zone. Estimates for peak metamorphic temperature increase up‐structure toward the Main Central Thrust. According to our calculations, garnet stopped growing at peak pressures, and protracted heating after peak pressure was absent or insignificant. Almost identical P–T paths for the samples studied and the metamorphic continuity of the Lesser Himalayan Belt support thermo‐mechanical models that favour tectonic inversion of a coherent package of Barrovian metamorphic rocks. Time‐scales associated with the metamorphism were too short for chemical diffusion to substantially modify garnet‐growth zoning in rocks from the garnet and staurolite zones. In general, the pressure of initial garnet growth decreases, and the temperature required for initial garnet growth was reached earlier, for rocks buried closer toward the MCT. Deviations from this overall trend can be explained by variations in bulk‐rock chemistry.     

High-pressure granulite facies metamorphism in the Pan-African belt of eastern Tanzania: P–T–t evidence against granulite formation by continent collision

To constrain the tectonic history of the Pan-African belt in Tanzania, we have studied the P–T evolution of granulites from northern and eastern Tanzania representative for a large part of the southern Pan-African belt of East Africa (e.g. Pare, Usambara, Ukaguru and Uluguru Mountains). Thermobarometry (conventional and multireaction equilibria) on enderbites and metapelites gives 9.5–11 kbar and 810±40 °C during peak metamorphism at 650–620 Ma. This is consistent with the occurrence of both sillimanite and kyanite in metapelites and of the high-P granulite facies assemblage garnet–clinopyroxene–quartz in mafic rocks. Peak metamorphic conditions are surprisingly similar over a very large area with N-S and E-W extents of about 700 and 200 km respectively. The prograde metamorphic evolution in the entire area started in the kyanite field but evolved mainly within the sillimanite stability field. The retrograde P–T evolution is characterized by late-stage kyanite in metapelites and garnet–clinopyroxene coronas around orthopyroxene in meta-igneous rocks. This is in agreement with thermobarometric results and isotopic dating, indicating a period of nearly isobaric and slow cooling prior to tectonic uplift. The anticlockwise P–T path could have resulted from magmatic underplating and loading of the lower continental crust which caused heating and thickening of the crust. Substantial postmetamorphic crustal thickening of yet unknown age (presumably after 550 Ma) led subsequently to the exhumation of high-P granulites over a large area. The results are consistent with formation of the Pan-African granulites at an active continental margin where tonalitic intrusions caused crustal growth and heating 70–100 Ma prior to continental collision. The P–T–t path contradicts recent geodynamic models which proposed tectonic crustal thickening due to continental collision between East and West Gondwana as the cause of granulite formation in the southern part of the Pan-African belt.     

Multi‐scale Decomposition of Co‐seismic Deformation from High Resolution DEMs: a Case Study of the 2004 Mid‐Niigata Earthquake

Decomposing co-seismic deformation is an immediate need for researchers who are interested in earthquake inversion analysis and geo-hazard mapping. However, conventional InSAR or digital elevation models (DEMs) imagery analyses only provide the displacement in the Line-of-Sight (LOS) direction or elevation changes. The 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake in Japan provides lessons on how to decompose co-seismic deformation from two sets of DEMs. If three adjacent points undergo a rigid-body-translation movement, their co-seismic deformation can be decomposed by solving simultaneous equations. Although this method has been successfully used to discuss tectonic deformations, the algorithm needed improvement and a more rigorous algorithm, including a new definition of nominal plane, DEMs comparability improvement and matrix condition check is provided. Even with these procedures, the obtained decomposed displacement often showed remarkable scatter prompting the use of the moving average method, which was used to determine both tectonic and localized displacement characteristics. A cut-off window and a pair of band-pass windows were selected according to the regional geology and construction activities to ease the tectonic and localized displacement calculations, respectively. The displacement field of the tectonic scale shows two major clusters of large lateral components, and coincidently major visible landslides were found mostly within them. The localized displacement helps to reveal hidden landslides in the target area. As far as the Kizawa hamlet is concerned, the obtained vectors show down-slope movements, which are consistent with the observed traces of dislocations that were found in the Kizawa tunnel and irrigation wells. The method proposed has great potential to be applied to understanding post-earthquake rehabilitation in other areas.     

Syn- to late-orogenic quartz veins marking a retrograde deformation path in a slate belt: Examples from the High-Ardenne slate belt (Belgium)

An integrated structural, petrographic and microthermometric methodology has been applied on syn- to late-orogenic quartz veins from the High-Ardenne slate belt (Belgium) to define their relative timing. The quartz precipitates, which do not show any mutual cross-cutting relationships, represent the meso-scale brittle accommodation during fold initiation, amplification and locking. Crystal-plastic deformation structures and P–T trapping conditions indicate that the different processes accommodating folding occurred in a progressive manner along a retrograde deformation path, associated with the gradual exhumation of the slate belt from ca. 7.5 to 6 km depth. Successive veining occurred from peak metamorphic conditions (ca. 300 °C and 190 MPa), measured in extrados veins, to subsequent lower P–T conditions in the periphery of a lenticular vein (ca. 275 °C and 180 MPa), late-orogenic saddle reef filling (ca. 245 °C and 160 MPa), and the core of a lenticular vein (ca. 220 °C and 150 MPa). Open-cavity growth and fluid-assisted brecciation indicate that veining occurred under overpressured fluid conditions. It is therefore fair to assume that the High-Ardenne slate belt acted – at least episodically – as a mid-crustal overpressured fluid reservoir, not only in the earliest and latest stages, but also during the main stage of orogeny.