INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF WINTER-TO-SPRING CIRCULATION TRANSITION OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS AND MECHANISMS

The climatological features and interannual variation of winter-to-spring transition over southern China and its surrounding areas, and its possible mechanisms are examined in this study. The climatological mean winter-to-spring transition is approximately in mid-March over southern China and the northern South China Sea. During the transition stage, anomalous southwest winds prevail at low-level over southern China and its nearby regions with enhanced convergence center over southern China, bringing more moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) to southern China; meanwhile, the upper level is characterized by an obvious divergence wind pattern over southern China to the southwest part of Japan and enhanced upward motion. All the change of circulation is favorable to an increase of precipitation over southern China after seasonal transition. The winter-to-spring transition is predominantly on the interannual variation over southern China and the northern SCS. Early winter-to-spring transitions may induce more precipitation over southern China in spring, especially in March, while late cases will result in less precipitation. The interannual variability of the winter-to-spring transition and the related large-scale circulation are closely associated with the decaying phase of ENSO events. The warm ENSO events contribute to early winter-to-spring transitions and more precipitation over southern China.     

青藏高原东缘—扬子特提斯构造域深部结构与地壳形变研究

青藏高原东缘和扬子西缘的构造带是中国特提斯构造域的重要组成部分,该构造域受欧亚板块与印度板块陆—陆碰撞、高原隆升、块体裂解或拼接挤压等强烈构造活动的影响,记录和保存了多期次的特提斯构造演化历史痕迹。同时,该研究区域也是中国西部地区地壳形变最强烈的地区之一,其浅表形变特征与深部构造之间存在怎样的关联和制约机制是目前国际地球科学的一个研究热点。本研究依据作者十多年来持续在该区域开展的地质—地球物理研究,通过深部地球物理多参数结构成像、沉积盆地分析、地壳形变和强震孕育机制等综合对比分析,发现在青藏高原东缘的下地壳存在低速和高泊松比异常带,该异常体与来自青藏高原上涌的软流圈热物质汇聚,导致从扬子西缘到青藏高原的下地壳和上地幔的深部结构发生显著变化。沿着龙门山断裂带,中、下地壳存在交叠相间的低速(高泊松比)和高速(低泊松比)区域,这些深部结构分布特征与地表形变及前陆盆地隆坳格局具有较好的一致性。基于上述认识,提出了青藏高原东缘—扬子板块的深部接触模式及其相应的盆山耦合关系,阐明了板块碰撞—耦合的深部动力学过程对剧烈地壳形变、盆地隆坳格局和强震诱发的制约关系。本研究成果将为深入认识青藏高原东缘高原急剧隆升、盆地基底结构与隆拗格局,以及强烈地壳形变的深部动力学机制提供参考信息。     

微生物异常探索江汉盆地江陵凹陷万城断裂带北部油气富集规律及有利区

江汉盆地江陵凹陷万城断裂带北部研究区,地表条件复杂,地震和钻井施工困难,油气富集规律还不甚清楚。因此,试图通过微生物找油方法,最小成本最高效率,以探明本研究区的油气富集规律。研究区面积约230.0 km2,采集样品间距南北500 m × 东西250 m,共采集并分析了样品2354个。研究表明,微生物异常主要分布在万城断层的东侧,其中微生物气异常零星分布,异常较弱,无独立气藏。在综合地质等资料的基础上,微生物异常分布特征表明,万城断裂带显示了来自北西和北东向的双向物源,油气来源于梅槐桥洼陷,属近源成藏。万城断裂带东侧和坡折带低位扇砂体是油气有利富集区,前景较好,主要为古近系新沟咀组成藏。万城断裂带西侧有小面积油藏,可能系白垩系成藏。最后,对微生物异常区进行了分级评价,指明了重点攻关区、评价有利和较有利区,对大幅降低勘探风险和提高勘探成功率,具有重大的社会经济效益和深远的现实意义。     

半干旱草原浅覆盖区手持钻机化探取样技术的应用及探索

浅层钻探技术是覆盖区化探取样技术研究的新方向。手持钻机是轻便钻机的一种。为了探索手持钻机的化探取样效果,以内蒙古拜仁达坝银铅锌矿区为代表的大兴安岭南部半干旱草原浅覆盖区作为研究区,采用回转式和冲击式手持钻机开展浅钻化探取样试验,分析该方法相对于常规化探方法的优势。结果表明,浅钻化探取样具有方便快捷、效率较高、成本较低等优点。通过对比两类钻机的钻进、取样工艺及效果,分析总结两类钻机对于草原覆盖区不同覆盖物的适用性及存在问题,为覆盖区浅钻化探技术和取样钻机的发展和推广提供借鉴和参考。     

基于水力层析法的某煤矿承压含水层叠加放水试验分析

水文地质参数是衡量含水层富水性的重要指标,其空间分布特征的准确推算,对于矿井突水灾害预报与防治具有积极意义。传统放水试验分析方法得到的是等效水文地质参数,不能准确刻画含水层的空间异质性。基于随时间变化的水头数据与水文地质参数的互相关分析,将水力层析法应用在陕西榆林柠条塔煤矿井下承压含水层叠加放水试验数据分析中,获得了研究区水文地质参数的空间分布特征。结果表明,工作面南北富水性差异大,涌水区位于强导水带上;从涌水区往北,导水系数和储水系数整体上逐渐减小;南部导水系数和储水系数均较大,属于富水异常区。研究表明,水力层析法是一种有效的非均质含水层参数识别的新技术,将井下放水视为针对含水层的刺激源,结合水头与水文地质参数的互相关分析,联合多个观测孔的水头响应数据,反演刻画研究区域的主要地质结构特征。在矿井水文地质条件分析中,预先采用水力层析法识别富水异常区域,可以有效降低突水事故风险。     

Obtaining a social licence for MPAs – influences on social acceptability

The biological success of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) depends to a large extent on their social acceptability, sometimes referred to as a social licence. Local resistance has slowed international progress towards a global network of MPAs. The causes of local resistance and limited social acceptability are poorly known, which constrains the development of new planning paradigms that could address these issues. Two case studies in New South Wales, Australia determined the factors that influenced community attitudes towards MPAs. The Port Stephens-Great Lakes Marine Park (PSGLMP) and Batemans Marine Park (BMP) underwent virtually identical and concurrent planning processes, however resistance to the BMP was more intense and sustained. Differences in the demographics, history, local media coverage and social impacts of each marine park contributed to these different community responses. The BMP demonstrated the ‘perfect storm’ of opposition triggers – a community struggling in the transition away from a primary production economy, a highly politicised media dominated by powerful elites with ideological objections to the park, and social impacts sufficiently profound to motivate local citizens to support an active campaign against the park. These impacts included loss of access, identity and increased competition for resources. This research points to the importance of developing a deeper understanding of the social, cultural and political landscape of the communities in which MPAs are proposed and a rethink of planning processes to better incorporate community objectives and knowledge.     

‘It׳s part of me’; understanding the values,images and principles of coastal users and their influence on the social acceptability of MPAs

Improving the social acceptability or ‘social licence’ of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is a key challenge facing countries all around the world. As the world moves slowly towards the establishment of a global network of MPAs, it is increasingly apparent that a greater understanding of social responses to MPAs is required, given they are often met with resistance from local communities. A series of in-depth, semi structured interviews were conducted across coastal users in New South Wales, Australia, including surfers, recreational fishers, professional fishers, spearfishers, walkers, divers, snorkellers, kayakers and other community members. The research identified the values, images and principles at work amongst coastal users to determine the dominant ‘cultural models’ within the community and how these models influenced attitudes towards MPAs. This research indicates that traditional consultation models may not be sufficient to address the full spectrum of community needs, and in fact suggests the need to re-conceive the make -up of ‘the community’ itself. In the context of MPA planning ‘the community’ is not an amalgamation of a range of homogenous stakeholder groups but instead a diverse and complex mix of identities and value systems which are not confined to particular interest groups. Incorporating consideration of the diverse range of values, images and principles found within and across stakeholder groups will require new and innovative approaches to participation and management.     

基于MODIS的天山山区草地类型植被指数变化特征及其与气候因子的关系

本研究建立基于MODIS的天山山区草地类型植被指数并分析其与气候因子的关系,研究发现：天山山区NDVI分布北部大,南部小;西部大,东部小。降水是影响天山山区NDVI的主要因子。天山山区在温度上升0.1℃,面雨量增加10%的情况下,NDVI增加2.5%。2000~2009年天山山区NDVI年平均值为0.35,温度呈上升趋势,降水呈减少趋势,对植被的生长不利,NDVI呈现出减小趋势,但减小不明显。天山山区NDVI最大值的年份,降水并不是最多的,说明植被的长势需要水分和热量匹配。1961~2009年天山山区的气候变化有利于草地NDVI的增加     

ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区在热带太平洋海温的多模式集合预报中的应用

本文将ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区与多模式集合预报方法相结合, 提出了一种能够有效提高预报技巧且又具有较小计算成本的多模式集合预报方法。该方法在目标观测敏感区内采用模式不等权的多模式超级集合预报方法(SUP), 而在其他区域采用相对简单的等权的多模式消除偏差集合平均方法(BREM)。利用CMIP5中15个气候系统模式的工业革命前参照试验(pi-Control)数据, 针对热带太平洋海温的长期演变开展了理想预报试验。将新集合预报方法与现有的多模式集合预报方法进行了比较。结果表明, 在所考察的预报期内(即1～20年), 新集合预报方法与整个热带太平洋区域使用SUP方法具有相当的预报技巧, 但前者的计算成本明显小于后者, 计算时间仅为后者的1/4。可见, 新方法是一个具有较高预报技巧且计算成本较小的多模式集合预报方法。同时, 其较高的预报技巧强调了热带太平洋SST预测对ENSO目标观测敏感区内的模式误差也是极端敏感的, 也正因如此, 多模式集合预报方法才能够有效过滤模式误差的影响, 具有较高的预报技巧。     

山区土地评价的GIS空间分析建模研究

为了因地制宜地开发利用地形地貌复杂、土层较薄、基岩裸露率较高的山区土地,需要提前进行适宜性评价,目前主要采用Arc GIS空间分析方法进行分析处理,但是处理过程繁杂,易出错。本研究采用Arc GIS空间分析模型生成器对分析过程进行模型化处理,对每个评价因子数据处理过程进行处理流程建模,关联各个因子模型进行多因子综合评价,可得出山区土地资源建设适宜性评价模型。采用上述方法对研究区域进行相关分析处理,再结合大量地面调查,分析出的评估结果与实际土地开发利用适宜性有较高吻合度,验证了该GIS模型方法的科学性与可靠性,而且较常规的方法数据处理效率明显提高,数据处理模型也可以共享。