黑潮流域海温适应性观测敏感区诊断方法研究

敏感区诊断是适应性观测的关键问题,集合变换卡尔曼方法(EnsembleTransformKalmanFilter,ETKF)是目前主要的诊断方法之一。将集合变换卡尔曼方法应用于海洋环境适应性观测,根据ROMS海洋模式数据构建海表温度集合预报,以黑潮流域宫古海峡附近海域为验证区进行敏感区诊断计算,分析不同间隔时间条件下敏感区分布情况,结合模拟系统观测试验验证在敏感区进行适应性观测对预报质量的提升效果。结果表明,在诊断所得敏感区内添加观测能够提升预报质量;随时间间隔增大,敏感区向上游区域平移且预报质量提升效果减小;与在验证区整体添加观测相比,敏感区观测对预报质量提升效果基本相同并且观测成本明显减少。     

双船双方位角地震探测技术方法及应用效果

南海东沙海域的陆坡台地区, 浅表断裂及生物礁发育众多, 浅层新生界多为碳酸盐岩层, 中深层的中生界内部构造复杂, 断裂较多, 常规单船窄方位地震剖面显示中深层反射品质较差。利用双船可以设计灵活的观测系统, 形成双方位角地震探测方式, 对于地下同一反射点的照明, 可以获得比窄方位角探测更好的效果, 也可以改善高速屏蔽层下方、高陡倾角斜层等区域的成像质量。文章通过重点技术的攻关研发, 进行了单源激发、双缆接收的双方位角采集试验, 成功实现该方法在南海海域中深层地震勘探中的应用。     

大别山及其周边现今垂直形变研究

基于1980年、2005年和2015年3期区域精密水准网观测资料,利用线性动态平差模型计算获取大别山地区水准网长期垂直运动速度场图像。研究发现,淮河平原地表下沉较为严重,大别山呈现弱隆升趋势运动,长江谷地边缘地区较大别山区呈现明显的隆升运动。跨郯庐断裂带水准剖面结果显示,垂直运动与地形呈负相关和弱相关。     

一种基于OpenMP的高效GPS卫星钟差实时估计方法

提出基于单观测值的Kalman滤波快速计算方法,并引入共享存储并行编程（OpenMP）技术实现协方差快速更新,从而实现非差GPS卫星钟差的快速实时计算。均匀选取55个IGS参考站,计算2017-03-20~03-30采样率为60 s的卫星钟差。与IGS事后30 s钟差相比,两者具有很好的一致性,RMS互差优于0.5 ns。选取未参与钟差解算的10个IGS参考站进行精密单点定位,结果表明,实时静态PPP水平方向精度优于2 cm,高程方向精度为2~4 cm;实时动态PPP水平方向精度为2～4 cm,高程方向精度为4～6 cm,能够满足实时PPP的精度要求。该方法在主频1.2 GHz服务器上8线程并行模式下单历元耗时4 s,相比串行模式效率提升1/3。     

Diel and seasonal variability in the fish community structure of a mud‐bottom estuarine habitat in the Gulf of Mexico

We hypothesized that temporal variation in fish species composition and community structure in a low complexity habitat in the Pueblo Viejo Lagoon, Mexico, is influenced by diel light/dark cycles and tidal stage, and by seasonal changes in salinity and temperature. We collected a total of 17,661 individuals during 2‐h interval sampling over six bi‐monthly 24‐h sampling cycles representing 53 species, of which 11 (～20%) were previously unknown in the system. Diel variation indicated that significantly higher numbers of individuals and species were caught at night, whereas diversity and evenness were higher during the day. Species richness was significantly higher in July and January, whereas diversity and evenness peaked around May; both were correlated with temperature. Diel variation in species composition was influenced primarily by the light/dark cycle. Cluster analyses of each diel cycle separated fish assemblages from midday samples from those of nocturnal samples, separated by an extended wide transition period as fish moved at dawn and during the late afternoon/dusk. Significant shifts (as determined by MANOVA) in assemblage structure occurred between months. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that temperature and day/night effects were the most important environmental variables structuring the fish community. This constrained ordination also defined species with specific habitat preferences as follows: (i) diurnal, warm temperature species (mainly planktivores) (Brevoortia gunteri, Cetengraulis edentulus, Diapterus auratus, and Membras martinica); (ii) nocturnal, warm temperature species (mainly predators) (Citharichthys spilopterus, Cathorops melanopus, and Bairdiella spp.); and (iii) low temperature, diurnal species (Brevoortia patronus and Mugil curema) or those with twilight and nocturnal distributions (Anchoa mitchilli, the most numerically abundant species). Our results indicate that diel and seasonal changes in fish community structure were mainly related to day/night cycles and temperature regimes.     

内蒙古区域数值预报对探空和地面观测资料的敏感性试验研究

基于内蒙古睿图预报系统的低分辨率版本和WRFDA-FSO诊断工具,评估2021年7月现有探空和地面观测对内蒙古睿图预报系统预报的影响。该方法计算代价相对低廉,并允许根据观测变量、观测类型、气压层次、地理区域等观测的子集对观测影响进行划分。代价函数为以干总能量为度量的背景场和分析场的预报误差之间的差异。结果表明:观测影响的总体总和为负,观测对预报起正贡献作用。对12 h预报误差减小贡献最大的观测来自探空观测的动力变量(U、V风分量)。而单时次单位数量平均观测影响,探空观测的贡献约为地面观测的1/2。探空观测对12 h预报误差减小从近地面层至模式层顶均保持正贡献作用,并在对流层中低层和对流层高空急流层存在两个极大值区域;地面观测在850 hPa以下低层正贡献占比明显。探空观测在被同化系统同化时均总体具有有利的影响,也反映出探空观测数据稳定、质量较高的特征;地面观测对12 h预报误差减小起正贡献作用次数最多的区域在河套地区尤为显著。同时,探讨了需进一步提高地面观测资料同化率的问题。     

时间加密探空观测对分析和预报质量的敏感性研究

探空观测是气象资料同化中最基本的常规观测资料,对同化分析和预报的有效改善具有重要作用。由于现有探空观测站的空间分辨率较低,分布不均匀,且每日仅有两次观测,数量偏少,限制了其分析场对中小尺度大气状态的准确再现能力。自我国L波段雷达-数字探空仪更新换代以来,探空观测具备了获取每日4次、垂直分辨为秒级和分钟级的大气廓线资料。本文利用WRF中尺度数值模式,通过06时（世界时,下同）加密探空资料和12时常规探空资料的有效同化,研究分析了时间加密探空观测资料对同化分析和预报质量的敏感性影响。结果表明：同化06时的时间加密探空资料的午后暴雨预报质量优于12时常规探空观测。具体而言,同化06时的时间加密探空资料预报的大雨和暴雨的预报技巧高于12时常规探空资料;位势高度、温度和风场等预报场的均方根误差在高层的改进效果更加明显;06时的时间加密探空资料的同化对高层的高空急流和低层的水汽通量散度的预报质量贡献更大。批量试验进一步证实了有效同化时间加密探空资料对分析和数值预报效果改进的积极意义。     

2007年宁洱6.4级地震监测与研究

利用宁洱地震现场流动台网监测资料进行精确定位,结合云南区域测震台网地震波资料,给出了宁洱地震主、余震的震源参数,分析讨论了宁洱地震的震源过程。研究显示,宁洱6.4级地震发震构造为NW向断裂,主破裂走向约N50°W,倾向WS,倾角约80°,断层性质为走滑型。断层破裂长度约为30km,宽度约5km,破裂面深2～12km,断层走向与宏观等震线长轴方向基本一致。震源参数研究表明,宁洱震区地震矩范围为1012～1018N·m,震源破裂半径为300～3500m,应力降为0.0044～14MPa。高应力降地震事件主要发生在4～10km深度范围内,表明该深度区是宁洱地震的主要活动区域。地震应力降随时间逐渐衰减,表明宁洱地震序列类型为主震—余震型。     

隔震建筑结构的强震观测与初步分析

福建省防灾减灾隔震大楼自2005年8月架设强震观测结构台阵以来,已多次记录到大楼地震动力反应,这些宝贵的结构反应资料对于评价隔震效果、分析结构反应特性具有十分重要的价值。本文从中选取了震级在3.7~7.6、震中距在189~3 595km的24次地震的台阵资料,对大楼的振动特性和隔震效果进行了初步分析,得到的结论是:(1)大楼场地土层的特征周期在0.63~0.68 s;(2)中心大楼在小地震作用下表现的振动卓越频率分别为4.7Hz(垂直向)、1.31Hz(南北向)、1.40Hz(东西向),大楼水平向第一阶振型的频率分别为1.41Hz(南北向)、1.59Hz(东西向),即自振周期为0.70 s(南北向)、0.63 s(东西向);(3)大楼在小地震时隔震效果不明显,其南北向隔震效果比东西向好;随着地下室记录峰值的增大,顶层放大倍数有所降低,大楼卓越频率也有所降低;(4)初步分析表明大楼在小震时仍有扭转效应,其扭转周期为0.5 s,有待进一步分析。     

High time resolution monitoring of tropospheric temperature with a Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS)

We have observed the time-height variation of the temperature field in the upper troposphere using a Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS) which consists of the MU radar and a high-power acoustic transmitter. The fast beam steerability of the MU radar has made it possible to measure temperature profiles in a fairly wide height range in the upper troposphere (5–11 km), even under intense wind conditions. Observations were continued for about 32 hr on 24–26 December, 1986 with a time-height resolution of 30 min and 150 m. During the observation period, the tropospheric jet was so intense that the acoustic wavefronts were severely distorted. Using wind velocity profiles observed by the MU radar we have numerically estimated the propagation of acoustic wavefronts, and further determined favorable pointing directions for the MU radar to receive significant backscattering from refractive index fluctuations produced by the acoustic waves. Conventional radiosonde soundings were carried out every 6 hr, which showed a temperature decrease of 4 K/day in the upper troposphere during the observation period. Temperature profiles taken by RASS agree well with the radiosonde results.