南方低山丘陵地区汛期短时强降水特征分析

研究汛期短时强降水特征,对于南方低山丘陵地区山洪灾害的预报具有重要指导意义。以怀化市为研究区域,基于该区域11个国家站和403个区域自动气象站的2012-2017年4-9月期间逐小时降水量以及相对应的NCEP资料,分析了怀化市短时强降水的时空分布特征,得出了产生短时强降水天气系统模型,结果显示：①汛期短时强降水发生频率较高,时间集中,分布不均。主要出现在5～7月,占4～9月的72.9%,其次在8～9月;北部频数多,中南部少,西部最少,辰溪、麻阳和怀化三县交界处及沅陵县的大合坪附近是频发区域。②短时强降水日变化呈单峰型,4～10时最容易发生,峰值在8时,谷值在23时。③强度越强出现的频次越少;北部的强度和次数大于其它区域;50～79.9 mm/h,占总站数的68.4%;各月国家站的极值乘以2约等于区域站极值。④低涡型短时强降水出现概率最高,低涡位置和移动路径是短时强降水预报的关键点。     

宁夏六盘山区多年降水的时空变化分析

选用宁夏六盘山区4个代表测站自建站以来至2007年的各月降水资料,用回归、周期和突变分析等统计方法进行分析,揭示了其多年时空变化规律.通过分析,得出了其季、年线性变化趋势和年变化周期及突变点,发现各区域降水存在着不同的变化规律,年降水均呈减少趋势,存在准14 a、11 a等变化周期,并发生了多次突变.     

中全新世以来呼伦湖沉积物碳埋藏及其影响因素分析

通过对内蒙古高原呼伦湖沉积物样品总有机碳含量(TOC)及其稳定同位素(δ13Corg)、总氮含量(TN)和TOC/TN(C/N)值的测定,结合沉积岩芯AMS14C年代标尺,分析了中全新世以来呼伦湖沉积物有机碳埋藏速率随时间变化的趋势及有机质的来源,并探讨了影响呼伦湖有机碳埋藏的主要因素.结果表明,中全新世以来呼伦湖有机碳埋藏速率平均值约为2.06 g/(m~2·a),碳储量约为35.25 Tg C,且总体上呈现增加趋势.呼伦湖沉积物中有机质主要来源于外源输入,但近1000 a以来内源输入逐渐增加并占据优势.呼伦湖有机碳埋藏速率与温度和降水均呈负相关,表明在长时间尺度上,升温及降水量的增加可能对呼伦湖的碳埋藏起到一定的抑制作用.     

波粒相互作用导致环电流质子沉降的卫星共轭观测

波粒相互作用是环电流损失的重要机制之一,但波粒相互作用导致的环电流离子沉降而损失迄今为止缺乏直接的观测证据.基于磁层及电离层卫星的协同观测,本文报道了发生在2015年9月7日,由电磁离子回旋波(EMIC波)导致环电流质子沉降的共轭观测事件.在等离子体层的内边界,Van Allen Probe B卫星观测到,存在EMIC波的区域和不存在EMIC波的区域相比,离子通量的投掷角分布的各向异性变弱.我们将Van Allen Probe B卫星沿着磁力线投影到电离层高度,同时在该投影区域内DMSP 16卫星在亚极光区域观测到环电流质子沉降.而且,通过从理论上计算质子弹跳平均扩散系数,我们进一步证实观测的EMIC波确实能将环电流质子散射到损失锥中.本文的研究工作为EMIC波导致环电流质子沉降提供了直接的观测证据,揭示了环电流衰减的重要物理机制:EMIC波将环电流质子散射到损失锥中,从而沉降到低高度大气层中而损失.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON THE PROCESS OF INTERGRANULAR PRESSURE SOLUTION OF PLAGIOCLASE GOUGE UNDER HIGH TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE: METHOD AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS

To understand the mechanism of lower-crust earthquake and slow slips, it is necessary to study the frictional properties of mafic rocks and their major rock-forming minerals. Previous studies have performed a series of experimental researches on gabbro, basalt and their major constituents. According to the results of previous experiments, frictional sliding of plagioclase under hydrothermal conditions(100~600℃)shows a property of velocity weakening, and the experimental results show that both the direct rate effect parameter(a)and the healing effect parameter(b)increase with temperature, a typical feature for thermally-activated processes. Velocity weakening means property of a shear band that has a stronger friction healing effect than the direct rate effect in the rate and state friction constitutive framework, and the healing effect(b value)in constitutive relation mainly reflects the increase in contact area with time under hydrothermal conditions, with some minor effect of structural changes. Since the microphysical mechanism of feldspar minerals at the contacts is mainly brittle cataclasis for temperatures below 600℃, the significant frictional healing effect in this case can only be explained by the mechanism of pressure solution. In order to determine if the dissolution process of plagioclase actually occurs on the laboratory time scale, we conducted hydrostatic experiments on plagioclase powder samples under hydrothermal conditions whereby frequent contact switch between particles seen in frictional sliding experiments can be avoided, making the observation on the dissolution sites possible. Experimental temperatures were 400℃ and 500℃, with confining pressure of 90~150MPa, pore pressure of 30MPa, with 2mm initial thickness of fault gouge. The mechanical data show that a creep process occurred in the plagioclase fault gouge in the experimental temperature and pressure range; and the microstructures of the experiment show that precipitation of new grains is prevalent as the product of pressure solution process between plagioclase particles. At the same time, it is observed that the contact points have an appearance similar to fused, fuzzy structure as signatures of dissolution. The results of our experiments provide a definite experimental evidence for the healing mechanism in friction of plagioclase and for the theoretical relation between unstable slip and the pressure solution process. The results of the experiments are summarized as follows: (1)Drainage rate of pore water in plagioclase gouge was high in the first few hours of experiment, but gradually decreases over time for both temperature and pressure series of experiments slowing down to a steady state. This feature indicates that there is a creep process that evolves inside the plagioclase gouge. In the temperature-series experiments, the drainage rate of the pore water in the plagioclase gouge at 400℃ is relatively low than the cases for higher temperatures. Thus, the applied temperature is positively correlated with the creep of plagioclase gouge. (2)Scanning electron microscopy(SEM)observations of the experimentally deformed samples were performed on thin sections cut along the sample axis. Firstly, from the images of microstructure, it was found that the degree of particle fracture became more significant at a higher effective pressure, with smaller pore volume between particles. In the temperature-series experiments it was found that the degree of compaction of plagioclase gouge increased with increasing temperature. Precipitation of plagioclase grains in layered structures was generally observed in high-magnification images, indicating the presence of pressure solution processes. Contact points were also found to be in a state of ambiguity that seems to be a fused morphology, but the details of the structure remain to be determined by further observations. The above results indicate that the pressure solution process of plagioclase particles can occur on a typical laboratory time scale, and the results of this study provide robust experimental evidences for the theory that links between pressure solution and the mechanism of frictional healing and unstable slips for plagioclase.     

长江中游网湖百年花粉序列及其沉积动力和环境特征

本文研究长江中游网湖钻孔百年来的花粉沉积序列,分析花粉沉积近、现代过程以及其与沉积粒度、过去百年湖泊由开放水系到封闭湖泊的气候、水文动力变化的关系.研究表明,花粉浓度、类型与沉积粒度的变化特征以及聚类分析反映出网湖经历了湖泊水系通江与封闭两个重大阶段变化,其花粉序列变化与沉积粒度、区域降水以及长江流量在时间序列上也具有显著的相关性.主要孢粉类型,包括陆生松属、常绿栎/落叶栎、乔灌木花粉、湿生莎草科、水生和陆生草本花粉、以及蕨类孢子,与沉积物粒度和降水具有同步相关的年份占过去130年的27%-40%,与1960年湖泊封闭以前长江流量的同步相关达到47%-57%,反映出花粉沉积量的变化受到了沉积粒径和流域降水量的影响.花粉类型对沉积和气候具有不同的响应关系,表现出具有大于降水70百分点年份以粘土沉积为主、乔灌木花粉占优的多水年模式,和小于降水30百分点的年份以粉砂沉积为主、水生、湿生、陆生草类花粉增加的少水年模式.花粉沉积与水动力这个关系为认识湖泊碎屑和利用花粉沉积记录反演过去环境变迁、生物湖泊沉积机制提供科学依据.     

呼伦湖水位、盐度变化(1961-2002年)

为重建水文资料缺乏的呼伦湖流域的水文、水质序列,本研究基于长期的气象观测记录,采用彭曼公式估计了湖泊的水面蒸发,并建立一个两参数月水量平衡模型模拟湖周的入流,通过水量平衡计算．建立了42年(1961-2002)的呼伦湖区水量变化序列,并模拟了湖泊月水量、水位、含盐度的变化．模拟的水位、含盐度变化趋势与实际比较接近,模拟精度较好,其误差在可以接受范围内.所重建的42年呼伦湖区水文、含盐度序列,可为该区域的水资源评价管理、开发利用提供科学依据.     

Channel precipitation dynamics in a forested Pennsylvania headwater catchment (USA)

Seasonal and event variations in stream channel area and the contributions of channel precipitation to stream flow were studied on a 106‐ha forested headwater catchment in central Pennsylvania. Variations in stream velocity, flowing stream surface width and widths of near‐stream saturated areas were periodically monitored at 61 channel transects over a two‐year period. The area of flowing stream surface and near‐stream saturated zones combined, ranged from 0·07% of basin area during summer low flows to 0·60% of total basin area during peak storm flows. Near‐stream saturated zones generally represented about half of the total channel area available to intercept throughfall and generate channel precipitation. Contributions of routed channel precipitation from the flowing stream surface and near‐stream zones, calculated using the Penn State Runoff Model (PSRM, v. 95), represented from 1·1 to 6·4% of total stream flow and 2·5–29% of total storm flow (stream flow–antecedent baseflow) during the six events. Areas of near‐stream saturated zones contributed 35–52% of the computed channel precipitation during the six events. Channel precipitation contributed a higher percentage of stream flow for events with low antecedent baseflow when storm flow generated by subsurface sources was relatively low. Expansion of channel area and consequent increases in volumes of channel precipitation with flow increases during events was non‐linear, with greater rates of change occurring at lower than at higher discharge rates. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

局地温度变化中各项因子的定量估算

基于安徽沿江地区高温、降水两类天气过程,利用逐时实测气温、NCAR/NCEP再分析资料提供的风、气温、垂直速度等资料,从天气学基本原理出发,由天气学原理和ω与w的换算关系式等估算局地气温的平流项、垂直项大小,并由实测气温经过计算获得非绝热项的估算值。结果表明,各项对于局地温度的升温作用为：平流项的变化相对比较复杂,就高温天气而言平流项的作用往往使得局地温度降低,但是两类天气平流项的作用非常弱;两类天气过程中的垂直项都导致局地温度升高,比例占1％～5％;可以说,安徽沿江地区局地温度的增温主要来自于非绝热项,增温比例常常超过95％,它对局地温度的升高具有举足轻重的作用。     

用极轨气象卫星资料分析飞机增雨云层条件

综合应用NOAA卫星AVHRR／3和FY-1极轨气象卫星高分辨0．58～0．68μm可见光、1．58～1．64μm近红外和10．3～11．3μm红外多通道资料,充分考虑了云的厚度、云中粒子尺度和云顶亮温的信息,给出了适宜飞机增雨作业云层的卫星遥感判据,建立了云层作业条件分析模型。实际应用表明,卫星遥感分析图可以有效地监测、判识和分析云层的增雨作业条件,应用效果好,可作为飞机增雨航线设计、作业决策的重要依据。通过增雨个例的微波图像特征分析,初步分析了AMSU—B微波图像在人工增雨作业中的作用和应用前景。