International and national climate policies for aviation: a review

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions and in addition there are non-CO₂ effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by ?0.8% per year (however if non-CO₂ emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2°C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Key policy insights

• Existing international climate policies for aviation will not deliver any major emission reductions.

• Policymakers who want to significantly push the aviation sector to contribute to meeting the 2°C target need to work towards putting in place tougher international policy instruments in the long term, and simultaneously implement temporary national policy instruments in the near-term.

• Distance-based air passenger taxes, carbon taxes on jet fuel and quota obligations for biofuels are available national policy options; if they are gradually increased, and harmonized with other countries, they can help to significantly reduce emissions.

     

Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

     

温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据

基于2001-2015年黑龙江省温室气体排放统计核算数据,对地区GDP与温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系检验呈现倒U型,预期2019年达到理论拐点;通过偏最小二乘回归模型得到4个减排路径的年平均减排效果顺序依次为单位GDP化石能源消费量减少、经济结构调整、人均GDP增长、贸易结构变化;减排路径对应脉冲响应函数的动态冲击效果分别为波动性增排、收敛性减排、发散性减排、转变的排放作用;推动黑龙江省温室气体减排的路径顺序为控制化石能源消费量、优化经济结构、发展低碳经济、调整贸易结构。     

中国居民食物消费碳排放时空演变趋势及其驱动机制分析

食物生产是影响温室效应气体排放的重要方面,由于食物类型不同其碳排强度存在较大的差异,因此当前中国居民食物消费快速演替必然会对生态碳环境产生重要影响。论文利用洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数,研究1997—2016年中国城乡居民食物消费在生产过程中碳排放时空演变及其主要驱动因子。主要结论如下：① 在数量上,中国居民食物消费碳排放总量和人均量整体都呈现逐渐的增长刚性,但仍属于低碳消费模式;② 在结构上,各类型食物碳排放演变呈现显著的分异态势,整体上动物性食物碳排放增长速度快于植物性食物碳排放减少速度;③ 在城乡差异上,城镇和乡村居民食物消费碳排放在数量、结构和趋势上表现出显著的城乡二元属性,但近年城乡差异表现出减缓趋势;④ 在空间上,各地食物消费碳排放呈现较显著的民族性、地域性、集聚性和中心“塌陷”的特征,碳排放密度高值主要分布在直辖市和沿海经济相对发达地区;⑤ 在驱动力上,结构演替是全国居民食物消费碳排放总量整体变化的主要驱动因素,而人口数量是各地地域空间差异分布的主要驱动因子。     

Major contribution to carbon neutrality by China’s geosciences and geological technologies

In the context of global climate change, geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality. This paper discusses the main problems, opportunities, and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality, as well as China’s response to them. The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories: (1) Carbon emission reduction technology (natural gas hydrate, geothermal, hot dry rock, nuclear energy, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, hydrogen energy); (2) carbon sequestration technology (carbon capture and storage, underground space utilization); (3) key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization (raw materials for energy transformation, carbon reduction technology). Therefore, geosciences and geological technologies are needed: First, actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas, geothermal energy, hydropower, hot dry rock, and key energy minerals, and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas; the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection, carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures, and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters; the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences, organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources, carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory, and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines. The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research. In the future, it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects, enhance the ability of climate adaptation, and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.     

Seasonal Study of Methane and Nitrous Oxide in the Coastal Waters of the Southern Baltic Sea

Atmospheric and dissolved methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) were measured in the unique coastal ecosystem of theBoddenwaters, including the western Oder estuary, (southern Baltic Sea) during five campaigns between 1994 and 1997. The CH₄saturations, ranging from 105–15 500%, showed great spatial and temporal variability with maximum values in September and minimum values in December. The N₂O saturations were in the range of 91–312% with a maximum in March. Enhanced concentrations of both gases were observed only in the western Oder estuary near the mouth of the Peene River. Thus, we conclude that the distributions of CH₄and N₂O in the investigatedBoddenwaters are, directly or indirectly, linked to the Peene River runoff and not to the Oder River. Our estimate of the annual CH₄emissions from theBoddenwaters to the atmosphere indicates a significant contribution (c. 17%) to the overall CH₄emissions from the Baltic Sea. In contrast, theBoddenwaters represent only a small source for atmospheric N₂O.CH₄production rates estimated from sediment slurry experiments revealed a significant spatial variability and indicated that methanogenic activity was related to acetate consumption in the surface sediment layer. Sedimentary CH₄production might depend on different amounts of accumulation of organic material.     

Estimates of monoterpene and isoprene emissions from the forests in Switzerland

Emission rates of biogenic volatile organic compounds emitted by the forests were estimated for five geographical regions as well as for all Switzerland. Monoterpene and isoprene emissions rates were calculated for each main tree species separately using the relevant parameters such as temperature, light intensity and leaf biomass density. Biogenic emissions from the forests were found to be about 23% of the total annual VOC emissions (anthropogenic and biogenic) in Switzerland. The highest emissions are in July and lowest in January. Calculations showed that the coniferous trees are the main sources of the biogenic emissions. The major contribution comes from the Norway spruce (picea abies) forests due to their abundance and high leaf biomass density. Although broad-leaved forests cover 27% of all the forests in Switzerland, their contribution to the biogenic emissions is only 3%. Monoterpenes are the main species emitted, whereas only 3% is released as isoprene. The highest emission rates of biogenic VOC are estimated to be in the region of the Alps which has the largest forest coverage in Switzerland and the major part of these forests consists of Norway spruce. The total annual biogenic VOC emission rate of 87 ktonnes y^–1 coming from the forests is significantly higher than those from other studies where calculations were carried out by classifying the forests as deciduous and coniferous. The difference is attributed to the high leaf biomass densities of Norway spruce and fir (abies alba) trees which have a strong effect on the results when speciation of trees is taken into account. Besides the annual rate, emission rates were calculated for a specific period during July 4–6, 1991 when a photochemical smog episode was investigated in the Swiss field experiment POLLUMET. Emission rates estimated for that period agree well with those calculated for July using the average temperatures over the last 10 years.     

日侧极隙纬度低频波及其与地磁扰动的关系

利用挪威斯瓦尔巴德地区的ＥＬＦ／ＶＬＦ观测资料和世界数据中心公布的Ｋｐ指数，分析了日侧极隙纬度低频波不同季节里的周日变化和１９８４年５月－１９８６年４月的年度变化及这些波与地磁扰动的某些关系．主要结果有：１．夏季ＥＬＦ波出现率极大值最大，而冬季的最小，前者约为后者的３倍，而且此极大值无论哪个季节都出现在磁正午时段．２．ＶＬＦ波出现率在夏季较小冬季较大；其极大值出现在磁午后至磁子夜前的２－４ｈ时段里．３．夏季ＥＬＦ波指数∑Ａ与地磁指数∑ＫＰ日变化较相吻合，在太阳自转周内两者相关系数约为０．６．４．冬季ＶＬＦ波指数∑Ａ与∑Ｋｐ日变化相吻合，在太阳自转周内两者相关系数可达０．８．这些结果表明日侧极隙纬度ＥＬＦ波和ＶＬＦ波各有不同的产生机制和源区．     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM RICE PADDY FIELDS IN THE YANGTZE DELTA OF CHINA*

A numerical simulation model is presented in this paper,which comprises the processes of crop growth,soil organic carbon decomposition,and methane emissions in agroecosystems.Simulation results show that the model can simulate the main process of methane emissions well,and the correlation coefficient between the simulated values and observed data is 0.79 with 239 samples,which passed a significance test of 0.01.The average error of methane emission simulation in whole growth period is about 15%.Numerical analysis of the model indicates that the average temperature during rice growth period has much impacts on methane emissions,and the basic trend of interannual methane emissions is similar to that of average temperature.The amount of methane emissions reduces about 34.93%,when the fertilizer is used instead of manure in single rice paddy.     

Magmatic gas scrubbing: implications for volcano monitoring

Despite the abundance of SO_2(g) in magmatic gases, precursory increases in magmatic SO_2(g) are not always observed prior to volcanic eruption, probably because many terrestrial volcanoes contain abundant groundwater or surface water that scrubs magmatic gases until a dry pathway to the atmosphere is established. To better understand scrubbing and its implications for volcano monitoring, we model thermochemically the reaction of magmatic gases with water. First, we inject a 915°C magmatic gas from Merapi volcano into 25°C air-saturated water (ASW) over a wide range of gas/water mass ratios from 0.0002 to 100 and at a total pressure of 0.1 MPa. Then we model closed-system cooling of the magmatic gas, magmatic gas-ASW mixing at 5.0 MPa, runs with varied temperature and composition of the ASW, a case with a wide range of magmatic–gas compositions, and a reaction of a magmatic gas–ASW mixture with rock. The modeling predicts gas and water compositions, and, in one case, alteration assemblages for a wide range of scrubbing conditions; these results can be compared directly with samples from degassing volcanoes. The modeling suggests that CO_2(g) is the main species to monitor when scrubbing exists; another candidate is H₂S_(g), but it can be affected by reactions with aqueous ferrous iron. In contrast, scrubbing by water will prevent significant SO_2(g) and most HCl_(g) emissions until dry pathways are established, except for moderate HCl_(g) degassing from pH<0.5 hydrothermal waters. Furthermore, it appears that scrubbing will prevent much, if any, SO_2(g) degassing from long-resident boiling hydrothermal systems. Several processes can also decrease or increase H_2(g) emissions during scrubbing making H_2(g) a poor choice to detect changes in magma degassing.We applied the model results to interpret field observations and emission rate data from four eruptions: (1) Crater Peak on Mount Spurr (1992) where, except for a short post-eruptive period, scrubbing appears to have drastically diminished pre-, inter-, and post-eruptive SO_2(g) emissions, but had much less impact on CO_2(g) emissions. (2) Mount St. Helens where scrubbing of SO_2(g) was important prior to and three weeks after the 18 May 1980 eruption. Scrubbing was also active during a period of unrest in the summer of 1998. (3) Mount Pinatubo where early drying out prevented SO_2(g) scrubbing before the climactic 15 June 1991 eruption. (4) The ongoing eruption at Popocatépetl in an arid region of Mexico where there is little evidence of scrubbing.In most eruptive cycles, the impact of scrubbing will be greater during pre- and post-eruptive periods than during the main eruptive and intense passive degassing stages. Therefore, we recommend monitoring the following gases: CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) in precursory stages; CO_2(g), H₂S_(g), SO_2(g), HCl_(g), and HF_(g) in eruptive and intense passive degassing stages; and CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) again in the declining stages. CO_2(g) is clearly the main candidate for early emission rate monitoring, although significant early increases in the intensity and geographic distribution of H₂S_(g) emissions should be taken as an important sign of volcanic unrest and a potential precursor. Owing to the difficulty of extracting SO_2(g) from hydrothermal waters, the emergence of >100 t/d (tons per day) of SO_2(g) in addition to CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) should be taken as a criterion of magma intrusion. Finally, the modeling suggests that the interpretation of gas-ratio data requires a case-by-case evaluation since ratio changes can often be produced by several mechanisms; nevertheless, several gas ratios may provide useful indices for monitoring the drying out of gas pathways.