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991.
The quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the western North Pacific(WNP) during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis(TCG) by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found.More TCG events occur during the QBWO's convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index(GPI), we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO's active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO's inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms.Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity.The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns—the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains(SSWs) over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO's active phase. This implies a possible enhanced(weakened) relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active(inactive) phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG by the QBWO and thus helps with efforts to improve the intraseasonal prediction of WNP TCG. 相似文献
992.
On 21 July 2012, an extreme rainfall event that recorded a maximum rainfall amount over 24 hours of 460 mm, occurred in Beijing, China. Most operational models failed to predict such an extreme amount. In this study, a convective-permitting ensemble forecast system (CEFS), at 4-km grid spacing, covering the entire mainland of China, is applied to this extreme rainfall case. CEFS consists of 22 members and uses multiple physics parameterizations. For the event, the predicted maximum is 415 mm d-1 in the probability-matched ensemble mean. The predicted high-probability heavy rain region is located in southwest Beijing, as was observed. Ensemble-based verification scores are then investigated. For a small verification domain covering Beijing and its surrounding areas, the precipitation rank histogram of CEFS is much flatter than that of a reference global ensemble. CEFS has a lower (higher) Brier score and a higher resolution than the global ensemble for precipitation, indicating more reliable probabilistic forecasting by CEFS. Additionally, forecasts of different ensemble members are compared and discussed. Most of the extreme rainfall comes from convection in the warm sector east of an approaching cold front. A few members of CEFS successfully reproduce such precipitation, and orographic lift of highly moist low-level flows with a significantly southeasterly component is suggested to have played important roles in producing the initial convection. Comparisons between good and bad forecast members indicate a strong sensitivity of the extreme rainfall to the mesoscale environmental conditions, and, to less of an extent, the model physics. 相似文献
993.
The radiative forcing (RF) of Asian desert dust and its regional feedbacks to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system are investigated with a coupled regional climate-desert dust model. The statistical significance of desert dust effects are analyzed through 20 summer seasons (1990-2009). In order to estimate the dust effects reasonably, some improvement has been achieved for the coupled model, including the updates of optical properties and desert source area distribution. We find that the desert dust can result in a roughly weakened monsoon in eastern China, Korean Peninsula, Japan and Indian Peninsula and a strengthened monsoon in Indochina Peninsula in the lower troposphere. Moreover, the precipitation comparisons between observational data and simulated patterns are also suggestive of the desert dust effect on the EASM. In the upper troposphere, the southward shift of the westerly jet (WJ) by the dust effect can be seen as an indicator of the weakened monsoon in great part of the monsoon areas. The change of the moist static energy (MSE) contrast between land and ocean is the main reason for the EASM variations. 相似文献
994.
三宫岩体是近几年新发现的铜镍矿化镁铁-超镁铁岩体,位于哈尔里克山东段。岩石类型主要为辉长岩、斜长辉石岩和含长橄榄辉石岩,局部有零星铜镍矿化。锆石U-Pb谐和年龄为(281.7±2.6)Ma,表明岩体形成于早二叠世。样品MgO与FeO~T呈正相关关系,与CaO、SiO_2和Al_2O_3之间呈负相关关系,岩体主量元素成分主要受橄榄石和单斜辉石含量的控制;样品明显富集轻稀土元素(La/Yb)N=5.02~7.04,重稀土元素之间具有明显的分馏(Gd/Yb)N=2.36~2.87,δEu为0.98~1.09多具弱的正铕异常,富集大离子亲石元素(Cs、Sr、Ba),相对亏损高场强元素,具明显的Nb、Ta、Ti负异常。Sr-Nd同位素模拟计算表明母岩浆上升过程中遭受了约10%的下地壳物质混染。岩浆源区遭受了明显的熔体交代作用,部分熔融主要发生在石榴子石稳定域。综合区域构造演化历史认为三宫岩体形成于后碰撞伸展环境,该岩体的发现初步表明哈尔里克地区也具有寻找早二叠世铜镍矿的潜力。 相似文献
995.
通过对滇西户撒盆地煤田资料二次开发利用,文章首次提出"潜在储铀层"的概念,即煤田等勘探钻孔测井资料中自然伽马值显示高于50γ(或3.5PA/kg或150API或12.6纳库(n·C)/Kg·小时)时所对应的砂岩、砾岩层,并筛查出主要赋存在新近系芒棒组一至三段的潜在储铀层40层。自然伽马异常等厚图与等值线图指示盆地北东部姐来-小寨地区、中部曼统-曼燕地区、南西部帕董-老汪寨地区可作为首选钻探验证靶区,验证孔当优先部署在以上区域。芒棒组一、二段因赋存的潜在储铀层数量多、伽马异常厚度较大、伽马异常值高,赋矿潜力大,可作为重点验证层位。 相似文献
996.
2005-2013年中国新增造林植被生物量碳库固碳潜力分析 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
本文利用2005-2013年林业统计年鉴中每个省市新造林面积和遥感分类提取得到的2010年土地覆被类型,结合公开发表的各类森林生长方程和各个时期的森林存活率,估算了中国新造林在2005-2100年生物量碳库变化及其固碳潜力。结果表明:2005-2013年中国新造林面积达到4394×104 hm2,在自然生长状况下,到2020年新造林蓄积量增加16.8亿m3,生物量增加1.6 Pg,生物量碳库0.76 Pg C;新造林生物量碳库在2005-2100年中将增加2.11 Pg C,相当于目前现有森林生物量碳库的25%,约是过去20年森林总碳汇的1.5倍;新造林生物量碳密度逐年增加,最高达到48.1 Mg/hm2。整合林业统计年鉴以及遥感解译的森林类型对新造林生物量固碳潜力分析,研究表明新造林具有较大的碳汇潜力,对中国现有森林碳汇平衡有重要贡献。 相似文献
997.
旅游社区多群体态度差异和冲突倾向的空间特征——以西安汤峪镇为例 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
随着乡村旅游的快速发展,乡村旅游社区逐步成为多群体竞争与冲突的场所,其内部多群体的态度差异成为指示社区冲突的重要指标。本文以西安汤峪镇为例,采用参与式制图(Participatory Mapping)和半结构访谈方法对当地居民、度假购房业主和游客3类群体的旅游开发态度和景观价值感知进行调查,最终获得315套访谈表与填图,共提取空间信息点5518个。基于对Brown等土地利用冲突倾向指标模型的修订,并结合地理空间分析方法探讨旅游社区态度差异和冲突倾向的空间特征。结论显示:① 旅游开发态度及其差异具有明显的地点指向性,并与景观价值的空间感知相关联。旅游开发冲突倾向空间上并非均匀分布,而是呈斑状格局,高值集中于社区旅游开发核心区域,且强度由开发的核心区域向外围区域减弱;② 潜在冲突地点的形成既有传统冲突因素的影响,又有特殊空间因素的作用,旅游开发要素的空间结构、多人群景观价值的空间感知、社区旅游发展阶段和相关人群的涉入程度都会影响冲突空间的形成;③ 参与式制图与深度访谈结合的方法能够帮助获得多人群主观数据,为认识态度和旅游开发冲突的空间特征提供了新的技术支撑。 相似文献
998.
Integrating cellular automata and Markov techniques to generate urban development potential surface: a study on Kolkata agglomeration 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Uncontrolled, yet fragmented peripheral urban expansion has emerged as a menace to urban development. To cope with this rapid urban expansion process, identification of the forces responsible for this rapid urban expansion is a pre-requisite, especially when its threats to habitability are taken into consideration. This study tries to evaluate fragmented uncontrolled urban expansion faced by Kolkata using cellular automata-Markov chain. Urban growth patterns, land use/land cover transformations and spatial allocation correspondence with planning strategy is the main theme of this study. Depending upon the driving forces, the study result indicates a bi-directional urban development potential surface, which might be a result of the biased planning initiative along with middle-class residential demand. This simulation result provides evidence for the planning authority to evaluate the effectiveness of spatial allocation and urban expansion trends and provide flexibility to modify the current allocation scenario. 相似文献
999.
1000.
利用常规气象观测资料,对2005—2014年湖南省湘西州2—3月高架雷暴类冰雹的时空分布特征、天气系统配置及环境场要素特征等进行统计分析,探讨高架雷暴类冰雹发生发展的物理机制。结果表明,湘西早春时期的高架雷暴类冰雹南部地区多于中北部地区,具有一定的日变化。影响高架雷暴类冰雹的主要天气系统为高空槽、700hPa急流以及冷空气等。潜势预报指标包括:850hPa相对湿度大于等于92%,700hPa相对湿度大于等于60%,500hPa相对湿度小于等于48.5%;850hPa存在强的温度锋区,温差大于等于13℃/5个纬度;700hPa与500hPa的温差大于等于15℃;700hPa有风速大于等于16m·s~(-1)的西南急流,且850hPa与700hPa的垂直风切变大于等于19m·s~(-1);0℃层高度为3~4km,-20℃层高度为6~7km。 相似文献