Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

浅水障碍绕流的数值模拟

浅水流绕过岸边和固壁时常出现分离生涡、脱涡和周期流现象.文中提出参数化局部涡模型和新生涡在背景流场中输移演化及其相互作用的算法,成功地对三峡水库坝区水流横向摆动进行了数值模拟.     

地震波阻抗约束下的储层地质建模方法与实践

以地质统计学为基础的三维地质建模技术已成为当今储层精细描述中的一项关键技术,但该项技术存在着一个最大的限制就是对硬数据的密度要求十分苛刻,因而多用于井网密度大的已开发区的储层精细描述。而在勘探区块,多采用地震属性资料作为软约束,来弥补资料不足的缺陷。本文以我国海上某油田为例,探讨了应用地震反演资料约束三维储层建模的几种方法,并提出"多条件、多级约束"的建模策略。研究表明,有效地应用包括地震信息在内的多学科信息进行岩相随机建模,能有效地弥补井间信息不足的缺陷,降低地质模型的不确定性,所建立的模型能很好地综合井资料的纵向高精度和地震资料的横向高精度信息,可以成功地应用三维随机建模技术解决勘探开发阶段的储层精细描述问题。     

碳同位素动力学模拟及其在天然气评价中的应用

天然气碳同位素动力学模拟是国际油气地球化学界的前沿性研究方向。它和盆地沉积埋藏史、受热史结合起来,对于评价天然气的成因和成藏历史是一种新而且有效的手段,正逐渐为人们所接受。介绍了天然气形成的碳同位素动力学模拟,以及其在评价天然气的成熟度、气源、运移-聚集史和油气比研究等方面应用的新进展,充分展示了其具有良好的应用价值。天然气碳同位素特征不仅受母源、成熟度的影响,而且与运聚条件、沉积盆地增温速率有关。瞬时聚集气与累积聚集气在碳同位素特征存在明显差别。碳同位素分馏动力学模型在不同含油气盆地会存在差异,不仅取决于气源条件,还与运移-聚集史、沉积-构造史有关。中国叠合型盆地天然气藏成因复杂,具有多期、多源的特点,本研究对这类天然气的研究与评价提供了新思路。     

Consistency Problem with Tracer Advection in the Atmospheric Model GAMIL

The radon transport test, which is a widely used test case for atmospheric transport models, is carried out to evaluate the tracer advection schemes in the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP-LASG （GAMIL）. Two of the three available schemes in the model are found to be associated with significant biases in the polar regions and in the upper part of the atmosphere, which implies potentially large errors in the simulation of ozone-like tracers. Theoretical analyses show that inconsistency exists between the advection schemes and the discrete continuity equation in the dynamical core of GAMIL and consequently leads to spurious sources and sinks in the tracer transport equation. The impact of this type of inconsistency is demonstrated by idealized tests and identified as the cause of the aforementioned biases. Other potential effects of this inconsistency are also discussed. Results of this study provide some hints for choosing suitable advection schemes in the GAMIL model. At least for the polax-region-concentrated atmospheric components and the closely correlated chemical species, the Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian advection scheme produces more reasonable simulations of the large-scale transport processes without significantly increasing the computational expense.     

Numerical simulations of anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature in china in the summer of 1997

1.IntroductionStatisticalstudiesdemonstratedthatinEINinoyearstheprecipitationinsummerintheChangjiangRiverandHuaiheRiverBasinsisprobablyabovethenormalwhileitispossiblybelowthenormalinthenorthernChinaandtheHetao(theGreatBendoftheHuangheRiver)region.ThetemperatureinsummerisusuallylowerthannormalinEastAsia,especiallyinNortheastChina.Therewere6yearswithseverelowtemperaturesince1951,andtheyare1954,1957,1964,1972,1976and1983,whichareallrelatedtotheEINinoyears(seeHuangetal.,1989,1992;Xiangand…     

Multi-Source Emission Determination Using an Inverse-Dispersion Technique

Inverse-dispersion calculations can be used to infer atmospheric emission rates through a combination of downwind gas concentrations and dispersion model predictions. With multiple concentration sensors downwind of a compound source (whose component positions are known) it is possible to calculate the component emissions. With this in mind, a field experiment was conducted to examine the feasibility of such multi-source inferences, using four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors arranged in different configurations. Multi-source problems tend to be mathematically ill-conditioned, as expressed by the condition number κ. In our most successful configuration (average κ = 4.2) the total emissions from all sources were deduced to within 10% on average, while component emissions were deduced to within 50%. In our least successful configuration (average κ = 91) the total emissions were calculated to within only 50%, and component calculations were highly inaccurate. Our study indicates that the most accurate multi-source inferences will occur if each sensor is influenced by only a single source. A “progressive” layout is the next best: one sensor is positioned to “see” only one source, the next sensor is placed to see the first source and another, a third sensor is placed to see the previous two plus a third, and so on. When it is not possible to isolate any sources κ is large and the accuracy of a multi-source inference is doubtful.     

江淮流域一次特大暴雨的数值模拟及动力分析

以周晓平研制的有限区域细网格数值模式为基础，编制成一个套网格模式，并对１９９１年７月２～３日发生在江淮流域的特大暴雨过程，进行了数值模拟和动力分析。结果表明：低空急流加强，输送了大量暖湿空气并激发强烈的上升运动是造成该区暴雨的主要原因；在该过程中，热成风平衡遭到破坏，其非热成风平衡部分伴随相应的二级环流，也有利于垂直运动的产生。     

新疆阿尔泰花岗岩类源区物质的定量模拟

对产出于阿尔泰、额尔齐斯、乌化古三条构造-岩浆带上的六个典型岩体进行了源区岩石化学组成和初始熔体部分熔融程度的定量模拟。模拟结果表明:六个岩体的ε_(Sr)~t值多介于0-120之间,源区岩石多为地幔物质与陆壳物质的混合源,地壳柱中成熟陆壳所占比例较少,反映了中亚型地洼区在地壳化学结构上的一个重要特征.从北往南,ε_(Sr)~t值与壳源锶所占百分率逐渐减小,反映了从地槽造山带核心部位往边缘部位往边缘部位,地壳柱中成熟陆壳所占比例逐渐减小。初始熔浆部分熔融程度温度、压力呈正消长关系。     

Paleoclimate Modelling at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Paleoclimate modelling is one of the core topics in the Past Global Changes project under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and has received much attention worldwide in recent decades. Here we summarize the research on the Paleoclimate modeling, including the Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum, and pre-Quaternary climate intervals or events performed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) for over one decade. As an attempt to review these academic activities, we emphasize that vegetation and ocean feedbacks can amplify East Asian climate response to the Earth’s orbital parameters and atmospheric CO2 concentration at the mid-Holocene. At the Last Glacial Maximum, additional cooling in interior China is caused by the feedback effects of East Asian vegetation and the ice sheet over the Tibetan Plateau, and the regional climate model RegCM2 generally reduces data-model discrepancies in East Asia. The simulated mid-Pliocene climate is characterized by warmer and drier conditions as well as significantly weakened summer and winter monsoon systems in interior China. On a tectonic timescale, both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat play important roles in the formation of East Asian monsoon-dominant environmental pattern during the Cenozoic.