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41.
A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters. 相似文献
42.
Lale BALAS 《中国海洋工程》2001,(4):565-578
The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study. 相似文献
43.
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45.
Evaluating fishery impacts using metrics of community structure 总被引:8,自引:14,他引:8
46.
贡湖及其相关水域风生流模拟研究 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
在太湖风生流的数值模拟研究的基础上,设计模拟贡湖及其相关水域风生流的套网格数值模式。应用该模式研究不同风情下,梅梁湖,太湖主体湖水对贡湖的影响。 相似文献
47.
Three-dimensional modelling from single images remains an interesting topic of investigation in the research community, even though range sensors are becoming a common alternative for the generation of 3D information. The interest in single-image-based modelling is motivated by a wide spectrum of applications such as cultural heritage, civil engineering, urban planning and even criminology. In this paper a complete new production flowline is presented for modelling based on a single image. The modelling process consists of a series of familiar steps in photogrammetry and computer vision: feature extraction, vanishing point computation, camera self-calibration, 3D reconstruction and dimensional analysis. In particular, the methodology developed for single-image-based modelling takes a scientific approach combining several proven techniques with robust estimators. Finally, in order to demonstrate its capabilities, the reported examples include several real situations applied in different contexts. 相似文献
48.
A data-driven approach to local gravity field modelling using spherical radial basis functions 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
We propose a methodology for local gravity field modelling from gravity data using spherical radial basis functions. The methodology
comprises two steps: in step 1, gravity data (gravity anomalies and/or gravity disturbances) are used to estimate the disturbing
potential using least-squares techniques. The latter is represented as a linear combination of spherical radial basis functions
(SRBFs). A data-adaptive strategy is used to select the optimal number, location, and depths of the SRBFs using generalized
cross validation. Variance component estimation is used to determine the optimal regularization parameter and to properly
weight the different data sets. In the second step, the gravimetric height anomalies are combined with observed differences
between global positioning system (GPS) ellipsoidal heights and normal heights. The data combination is written as the solution
of a Cauchy boundary-value problem for the Laplace equation. This allows removal of the non-uniqueness of the problem of local
gravity field modelling from terrestrial gravity data. At the same time, existing systematic distortions in the gravimetric
and geometric height anomalies are also absorbed into the combination. The approach is used to compute a height reference
surface for the Netherlands. The solution is compared with NLGEO2004, the official Dutch height reference surface, which has
been computed using the same data but a Stokes-based approach with kernel modification and a geometric six-parameter “corrector
surface” to fit the gravimetric solution to the GPS-levelling points. A direct comparison of both height reference surfaces
shows an RMS difference of 0.6 cm; the maximum difference is 2.1 cm. A test at independent GPS-levelling control points, confirms
that our solution is in no way inferior to NLGEO2004. 相似文献
49.
Combined subsidence and thermal 1D modelling was performed on six well-sections located in the north-western Mid-Polish Trough/Swell
in the eastern part of the Central European Basin system. The modelling allowed constraining quantitatively both the Mesozoic
subsidence and the magnitude of the Late Cretaceous–Paleocene inversion and erosion. The latter most probably reached 2,400 m
in the Mid-Polish Swell area. The modelled Upper Cretaceous thickness did not exceed 500 m, and probably corresponded to 200–300 m
in the swell area as compared with more than 2,000 m in the adjacent non-inverted part of the basin. Such Upper Cretaceous
thickness pattern implies early onset of inversion processes, probably in the Late Turonian or Coniacian. Our modelling, coupled
with previous results of stratigraphic and seismic studies, demonstrates that the relatively low sedimentation rates in the
inverted part of the basin during the Late Cretaceous were the net result of several discrete pulses of non-deposition and/or
erosion that were progressively more pronounced towards the trough axis. The last phase of inversion started in the Late Maastrichtian
and was responsible for the total amount of erosion, which removed also the reduced Upper Cretaceous deposits. According to
our modelling results, a Late Cretaceous heat-flow regime which is similar to the present-day conditions (about 50 mW/m2) was responsible for the observed organic maturity of the Permian-Mesozoic rocks. This conclusion does not affect the possibility
of Late Carboniferous–Permian and Late Permian–Early Triassic thermal events. 相似文献
50.
The Glueckstadt Graben of the North-German Basin: new insights into the structure from 3D and 2D gravity analyses 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Tamara Yegorova Yuriy Maystrenko Ulf Bayer Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2008,97(5):915-930
The structure of the Glueckstadt Graben has been investigated by use of 3D gravity backstripping technique and by 2D gravity
and magnetic modelling. Subtracting the gravity effects of the Meso-Cenozoic sediments together with Permian salt reveals
a positive residual anomaly within the Glueckstadt Graben. This anomaly includes two local maxima over the Westholstein and
Eastholstein Troughs. The 2D gravity models point to the presence of a high-density body within the lower crust of the Glueckstadt
Graben. In addition, the results of 2D magnetic modelling indicate that the central part of the high-density body is overlain
by an area with high susceptibility. Most probable, the formation of this high-density body is a result of complex poly-phase
tectonic history of the study area. Finally, the results of gravity modelling indicate that Permian salt is not homogeneous.
3D gravity analysis and, especially, 2D gravity modelling have distinguished the differences in degree of salt saturation
in salt-rich bodies, and elucidate the proportion of Rotliegend salt. 相似文献