The role of the seismic trigger in the Calitri landslide (Italy): historical reconstruction and dynamic analysis

The study covered by this paper was focused on the historical case of the Calitri landslide, which was repeatedly reactivated by earthquakes, as reported since 1694. The town of Calitri (Southern Italy) is located on a ridge whose southern slope, from its top to the Ofanto river valley floor, has been historically affected by major landsliding. The last record of recurrence of the Calitri landslide leads back to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, which caused significant damage to the town and had pervasive and visible ground effects. Based on a detailed historical reconstruction of landsliding and seismicity at Calitri, the study analysed the current static and dynamic stability of the landsliding slope by means of a finite-difference numerical analysis, taking into account the various factors of landslide initiation and kinematics. The results of the numerical analysis: (i) were consistent with the roto-translational mechanism observed upon the latest reactivation of the landslide; (ii) demonstrated that excess pore pressure redistribution caused a lag between the seismic trigger and the initiation of landsliding; and (iii) showed the impact of seismic input frequency on propagation and depth of slope instability.     

The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crustal structure of the Lofoten–Vesterålen continental margin, off Norway

By compiling wide-angle seismic velocity profiles along the 400-km-long Lofoten–Vesterålen continental margin off Norway, and integrating them with an extensive seismic reflection data set and crustal-scale two-dimensional gravity modelling, we outline the crustal margin structure. The structure is illustrated by across-margin regional transects and by contour maps of depth to Moho, thickness of the crystalline crust, and thickness of the 7+ km/s lower crustal body. The data reveal a normal thickness oceanic crust seaward of anomaly 23 and an increase in thickness towards the continent–ocean boundary associated with breakup magmatism. The southern boundary of the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin, the Bivrost Fracture Zone and its landward prolongation, appears as a major across-margin magmatic and structural crustal feature that governed the evolution of the margin. In particular, a steeply dipping and relatively narrow, 10–40-km-wide, Moho-gradient zone exists within a continent–ocean transition, which decreases in width northward along the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin. To the south, the zone continues along the Vøring margin, however it is offset 70–80 km to the northwest along the Bivrost Fracture Zone/Lineament. Here, the Moho-gradient zone corresponds to a distinct, 25-km-wide, zone of rapid landward increase in crustal thickness that defines the transition between the Lofoten platform and the Vøring Basin. The continental crust on the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin reaches a thickness of 26 km and appears to have experienced only moderate extension, contrasting with the greatly extended crust in the Vøring Basin farther south. There are also distinct differences between the Lofoten and Vesterålen margin segments as revealed by changes in structural style and crustal thickness as well as in the extent of elongate potential-field anomalies. These changes may be related to transfer zones. Gravity modelling shows that the prominent belt of shelf-edge gravity anomalies results from a shallow basement structural relief, while the elongate Lofoten Islands belt requires increased lower crustal densities along the entire area of crustal thinning beneath the islands. Furthermore, gravity modelling offers a robust diagnostic tool for the existence of the lower crustal body. From modelling results and previous studies on- and off-shore mid-Norway, we postulate that the development of a core complex in the middle to lower crust in the Lofoten Islands region, which has been exhumed along detachments during large-scale extension, brought high-grade, lower crustal rocks, possibly including accreted decompressional melts, to shallower levels.     

Flexural and gravity modelling of the Mérida Andes and Barinas–Apure Basin, Western Venezuela

The kinematic evolution of the Barinas–Apure Basin and the southern Mérida Andes from Lower Miocene to the Present is numerically modelled using flexural isostatic theory and geophysical and geological data. Two published regional transects are used to build up a reference section, which is then used to constrain important parameters (e.g. shortenings and sedimentary thicknesses) for the flexural modelling. To control the location of the main fault system in the flexural model earthquake information is also used. The estimated flexural elastic thickness of the South American lithosphere beneath the Barinas–Apure Basin and the Mérida Andes Range is 25 km. The value for the final total shortening is 60 km. The flexural isostatic model shows that the Andean uplift has caused the South American lithosphere subsidence and the development of the Barinas–Apure Basin.In addition, gravity modelling was used to understand deep crustal features that could not be predicted by flexural theory. Consequently, the best-fit flexural model is used to build a gravity model across the Mérida Andes and the Barinas–Apure Basin preserving the best-controlled structural features from the flexural modelling (e.g. basin wavelength and depth) and slightly changing the main bodies density values and deep crustal structures. The final gravity model is intended to be representative of the major features affecting the gravity field in the study area. The predicted morphology in the lower crustal level of the final gravity model favours the hypothesis of a present delamination or megathrust of the Maracaibo crust over the South American Shield. This process would use the Conrad discontinuity as a main detachment surface within an incipient NW dipping continental subduction.     

Western Alpine back-thrusting as subsidence mechanism in the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (Western Po Plain, NW Italy)

Basin formation dynamics of the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (TPB) are here investigated by means of cross-section numerical modelling. Previous works hypothesised that basin subsidence occurred due first to extension (Oligocene) and then to subsequent loading due to back-thrusting (Miocene). However, structural evidence shows that the TPB was mainly under contraction from Oligocene until post Pliocene time while extension played a minor role. Furthermore, thermal indicators strongly call for a cold (flexure-induced) mechanism but are strictly inconsistent with a hot (thermally induced) mechanism. Our new modelling shows that the TPB stratigraphic features can be reproduced by flexure of a visco-elastic plate loaded by back-thrusts active in the Western Alps in Oligo-Miocene times. Far-field compression contributed to the TPB subsidence and controlled the basin infill geometry by enhancing basin tilting, forebulge uplift and erosion of the southern margin of the basin. These results suggest that the TPB subsidence is the result of a combination of mechanisms including thrust loading and far-field compressional stresses.     

Anomalous lithospheric structure of Northern Juan de Fuca plate — a consequence of oceanic rift propagation?

Anomalous crustal and upper mantle structure of northern Juan de Fuca plate is revealed from wide-angle seismic and gravity modelling. A 2-D velocity model is produced for refraction line II of the 1980 Vancouver Island Seismic Project (VISP80). The refraction data were recorded on three ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) deployed at the ends and middle of a 110 km line oriented parallel to the North American continental margin. The velocity model is constructed via ray tracing and conforms to first-arrival amplitude observations and travel time picks of direct, converted and reflected phases. Between sub-sediment depths of 3 to 11 km, depths normally associated with the lower crust and upper oceanic mantle, the final model shows that compressional-wave velocities decrease significantly from southeast to northwest along the profile. At sub-sediment depths of 11 km at the northwestern end of the profile, P-wave velocities are as low as 7.2 km/s. A complementary 2-D gravity model using the geometry of the velocity model and velocity–density relationships characteristic of oceanic crust is produced. The high densities required to match the gravity field indicate the presence of peridotites containing 25–30% serpentine by volume, rather than excess gabbroic crust, within the deep low velocity zone. Anomalous travel time delays and unusual reflection characteristics observed from proximal seismic refraction and reflection experiments suggest a broader zone of partially serpentinized peridotites coincident with the trace of a pseudofault. We propose that partial serpentinization of the upper mantle is a consequence of slow spreading at the tip of a propagating rift.