预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Large eddy simulation of hydrocyclone—prediction of air-core diameter and shape

Hydrocyclones are widely used in the mining and chemical industries. An attempt has been made in this study, to develop a CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model, which is capable of predicting the flow patterns inside the hydrocyclone, including accurate prediction of flow split as well as the size of the air-core. The flow velocities and air-core diameters are predicted by DRSM (differential Reynolds stress model) and LES (large eddy simulations) models were compared to experimental results. The predicted water splits and air-core diameter with LES and RSM turbulence models along with VOF (volume of fluid) model for the air phase, through the outlets for various inlet pressures were also analyzed. The LES turbulence model led to an improved turbulence field prediction and thereby to more accurate prediction of pressure and velocity fields. This improvement was distinctive for the axial profile of pressure, indicating that air-core development is principally a transport effect rather than a pressure effect.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Continuous air rate measurement in flotation cells: Some fundamental considerations

A robust and reliable sensor to measure gas (air) superficial velocity (J_g) continuously in flotation systems is introduced. It is based on the sampling of bubbles by buoyancy with the accumulating air allowed to exit through an orifice. At steady state, pressure drop is measured and related to the J_g by prior calibration. The continuous device is readily automated and extended to a multi-unit set-up. The sensor and data collections are described. The governing gas flow equation and models of the dynamic response to air flow rate set point change and fluctuations in froth depth are derived. Model predictions are confirmed against plant data. By taking a moving average, the J_g remains valid in the face of typical plant disturbances.     

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

High resolution profiles of trace metals in pore waters of marine and riverine sediments assessed by DET and DGT

In polluted aquatic systems, toxic metals are often accumulated in bottom sediments. They are, however, not necessarily stored definitively because diagenetic processs can modify redox, pH and even the amount of complexing ligands, releasing the trace metals back into the pore waters and the water column. Especially the labile metal fraction in the pore waters is important since this is the bioavailable fraction determining the bio-toxicity of the sediments. The goal of our study was therefore to assess, with novel sampling techniques, this bioavailable metal fraction in the pore waters as well as the flux towards the overlying water column. High-resolution profiles of trace metals in pore waters of marine and riverine sediments were assessed by DET （diffusive equilibrium in thin films） and DGT （diffusive gradients in thin films） gel techniques. The DET technique uses a diffusive gel layer that equilibrates with the aquatic system and with this technique the concentrations of total dissolved trace metals are obtained directly. The DGT technique uses an acrylamide diffusive gel backed by a resin gel （Chelex） which binds trace metals. With the DGT technique only labile species of selected metals can be captured. According to the redox potential measurements, the marine sediments were suboxic （200 mV to -220 mV versus Ag/AgCl electrode）, while the riverine sediments were completely anoxic （-160 mV to -220 mV versus Ag/AgCl electrode）. This redox potential was apparently controlling the trace metals species in the pore waters： for example a strong correlation between Mn and Co was found in the riverine sediments （for DET and DGT sampling）, while in the marine sediments trace metals presented various behaviors.     

Preparation of a geotechnical microzonation model using Geographical Information Systems based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

The purpose of this study is to develop a geotechnical microzonation model using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). As study area, the Eskişehir downtown area has been chosen. Eskişehir is one of the most rapidly growing cities in central Turkey. The model inputs include slope, flood susceptibility, soil, depth to groundwater table, swelling potential, and liquefaction potential. The weight and rank values are assigned to the layers and to the classes of each layer respectively. The assignment of the weight/rank values and the analysis are realized by the application of two different decision models, namely Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods. The geotechnical microzonation maps prepared as outputs of these methods are found to be consistent with each other and confirmed by the experts within the study area. The geotechnical microzonation map prepared using the AHP method is recommended as the final map of the study.     

Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project

Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.     

Mineralogical and chemical transformation of Oldoinyo Lengai natrocarbonatites, Tanzania

The minerals of Oldoinyo Lengai natrocarbonatite lavas are unstable under atmospheric conditions. Subsolidus mineral assemblages in natrocarbonatites were studied in 105 samples from contemporary eruptions ranging from present day to about 100 years old. The subsolidus minerals in natrocarbonatites were formed (i) along cracks on the lava surface from hot gases escaping during cooling, (ii) as atmospheric alteration by solution of water-soluble minerals, in particular halides and gregoryite, and by hydration of nyerereite under the influence of meteoric water and (iii) by reaction with fumarole gases. After solidification, the lavas were cut by a network of thin cracks, the edges of which are covered by polymineralic encrustations. Samples collected 2–24 h after eruption contain nahcolite, trona, sylvite, and halite with accessory kalicinite and villiaumite. Atmospheric humidity results immediately (≥ 2 h after eruption) in alteration of black lavas that is marked by the appearance of white powdery thermonatrite with nahcolite on the lava surface. Subsequent reaction (weeks, months, years) of natrocarbonatite with meteoric water and the atmosphere results in the formation of pirssonite, gaylussite, shortite, trona, thermonatrite, nahcolite and calcite. Generally, the first important step is the formation of pirssonite and the end-members are calcite carbonate rocks or loose aggregates. Fumarolic activity is common for the active northern crater of the volcano. Reaction of hot (54–141 °C) fumarolic gases with natrocarbonatite leads to the formation of sulphur, gypsum, calcite, anhydrite, monohydrocalcite, barite and celestine. Changes in mineralogy of the natrocarbonatite lead to substantial chemical transformation. The most obvious chemical changes in this process are the loss of Na, K, Cl and S, combined with an increase in H₂O, Ca, Sr, Ba, F and Mn. The oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of altered natrocarbonatites shows a significant shift from the primary “Lengai Box” to high values of δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C. Calcite exhibits δ¹³C values between − 2‰ and − 4‰ PDB and δ¹⁸O values of + 23‰ to + 26‰ SMOW. The observed assemblages of secondary minerals formed by reaction with atmosphere and meteoric water, the changes in chemical composition of the natrocarbonatite and field observations suggest that alteration of natrocarbonatite is an open-system low-temperature process. It takes place at temperatures between 8 and 43 °C with the addition of H₂O to the system and the removal of Na, K, Cl and S from the carbonatites. Low-temperature thermodynamic models developed for alkali carbonate systems can be used for the interpretation of Oldoinyo Lengai subsolidus mineralization.     

Groundwater study using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the central highlands of Eritrea

Remote sensing, evaluation of digital elevation models (DEM), geographic information systems (GIS) and fieldwork techniques were combined to study the groundwater conditions in Eritrea. Remote sensing data were interpreted to produce lithological and lineament maps. DEM was used for lineament and geomorphologic mapping. Field studies permitted the study of structures and correlated them with lineament interpretations. Hydrogeological setting of springs and wells were investigated in the field, from well logs and pumping test data. All thematic layers were integrated and analysed in a GIS. Results show that groundwater occurrence is controlled by lithology, structures and landforms. Highest yields occur in basaltic rocks and are due to primary and secondary porosities. High yielding wells and springs are often related to large lineaments, lineament intersections and corresponding structural features. In metamorphic and igneous intrusive rocks with rugged landforms, groundwater occurs mainly in drainage channels with valley fill deposits. Zones of very good groundwater potential are characteristic for basaltic layers overlying lateritized crystalline rocks, flat topography with dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels with valley fill deposits. The overall results demonstrate that the use of remote sensing and GIS provide potentially powerful tools to study groundwater resources and design a suitable exploration plan.The online version of the original article can be found at