基于贝叶斯网络的南水北调工程运行综合风险分析

南水北调工程是目前我国最大的调水工程。随着工程的建设和运行,由不确定性问题引起的风险问题越来越受到关注,工程运行的风险分析也摆在管理者的面前,如何识别、评估、降低和控制风险的发生成为南水北调工程运行中的一个重要问题。本文首次将贝叶斯网络理论引入到南水北调综合风险分析中,选取东线工程宝应抽水泵站为研究对象,利用贝叶斯网络推理功能得出宝应站运行综合风险发生的概率为0.025%,风险发生的等级为"较低"。利用情景分析的方法,得出在影响综合风险的因素中,泵站的管理维护状况条件改变时,综合风险变化最大,因此需要予以重点关注。     

我国能源活动CO2排放在2020—2022年之间达到峰值情景和可行性研究

全球到2100年实现将温度上升控制在和工业化前相比2℃以内,已经成为一个政策目标。本文结合中国能源环境政策综合评估（IPAC）模型的近期研究结果,分析了实现全球2℃温升目标下我国能源活动的CO₂排放情景,并对其关键因素进行研究,得到实现这些情景的可行性。研究表明,考虑到我国经济转型、能源效率提升、可再生能源和核电的发展、碳捕获和碳封存技术,以及低碳生活方式的转变,我国能源活动的CO₂排放是可以在2025年之前,甚至更早（如在2020—2022年）实现排放峰值,峰值总量在90亿t左右,之后开始下降,这和我国在全球2℃温升目标情景中给予的碳空间相一致,支持我国未来在全球温室气体减排中的国际合作路径,以及国内低碳发展政策的制定。实现这样的减排路径,需要在既有的环境和能源政策之外制定针对气候变化减缓的明确和长期的政策,如碳定价。     

吉林省西部湿地土地利用格局变化的多情景模拟

吉林省西部属于生态脆弱区,湿地作为重要的生态单元,其发展变化对区域生态环境产生重要影响。近年来,由于受到较多的人为干扰,该区域湿地变化极为显著。为了充分发挥湿地生态环境功能,促进区域生态环境改善,以吉林省西部2000-2010年湿地变化数据为基础,基于情景分析法设置了自然变化（情景1）、规划优先（情景2）和生态优先（情景3）三种情景,利用CLUE-S模型对2020年湿地空间格局进行模拟,并从湿地空间分布变化特征和景观抗干扰能力两个方面对不同情景下的湿地格局进行分析评价,旨在了解不同情景下湿地格局的差异性,寻求合理的湿地空间分布格局。结果表明：CLUE-S模型的土地利用预测正确率为84.54%,κ指数为0.83,能够较好地模拟2020年湿地格局变化,特别是对沼泽湿地、水域和建设用地模拟效果较好;不同情景下湿地空间格局特征具有明显的差异性,三种情景下的沼泽湿地的质心均偏向西南,水域的质心均偏向东南,而水田的质心在情景1中偏向东北,在情景2和情景3中偏南,沼泽湿地和水田在情景3比情景1中具有更强的聚集性,而水域恰相反,情景1比情景3中具有更强的聚集性;不同情景下的湿地景观抗干扰能力不同,2010-2020年,情景1中的所有湿地类型的景观干扰指数都逐渐增加,而情景2和情景3中沼泽湿地和水域的景观干扰指数逐渐降低,尤以生态优先情景的下降幅度最大。表明在实施科学的生态建设时,湿地景观具有较强的抗干扰能力。     

沿海城市社区暴雨洪水风险评价——以温州龙湾区为例

从风险角度探讨了基于GIS空间网格的沿海城市社区空间尺度暴雨洪水淹没情景模拟方法。通过对温州龙湾区暴雨降水量的频率计算,得到不同频率下的降水量及其对应的径流深度。根据"雨量体积法"原理,利用编制的程序得到不同重现期暴雨洪水水面高程和不同淹没水深区间对应的淹没面积,并进行暴雨洪水淹没情景模拟和洪水风险评价。最后,根据2005年龙湾区"海棠"台风暴雨实测资料进行典型历史台风暴雨洪水事件实证研究。     

Environmental impacts of Baltim and Ras El Bar shore-parallel breakwater systems on the Nile delta littoral zone,Egypt

This study evaluates the impacts resulting from the construction of two large-scale detached breakwater systems on the Nile delta coast of Egypt at Baltim and Ras El Bar beaches (~18.3 km shoreline length). The two protective systems were installed in a water depth of between 3 and 4 m and consist of 17 units in total (each ~250 m long). A comprehensive monitoring program spanning the years 1990 to 2002 was implemented and included beach-nearshore profiles, grain size distribution of seabed sand and information related to the background coastal processes. Evaluation of these systems concentrates on the physical impacts on coastal morphodynamics, mitigation and their design implications. The beach and nearshore sedimentation (erosion/accretion patterns) and grain texture of seabed sediment in the study areas have been substantially disrupted due to the interruption of longshore transport by the shore-parallel detached breakwaters. Rate of shoreline and seabed changes as well as alongshore sediment volume have been substantially affected, resulting in accretion in the breakwater landward sides (tombolo or salient) followed by downdrift erosion. The preconstruction beach erosion at Baltim (–5 m/year) and at Ras El Bar (–6 m/year) has been replaced, respectively, by the formation of sand tombolo (35 m/year) and salient (9 m/year). On the other hand, beach erosion has been substantially increased in the downdrift sides of these protective systems, being –20 m/year at Baltim and –9 m/year at Ras El Bar. Further seaward, the two protective systems at Baltim and Ras El Bar have accumulated seabed sand at maximum rates of 30 and 20 cm/year and associated with downdrift erosion of –45 and –20 cm/year, respectively. Strong gyres and eddies formed in the breakwater gabs have drastically affected swimmers and subsequently caused a significant number of drownings each summer, averaging 35 and 67 victims/year at Baltim and Ras El Bar beaches, respectively. This study provides baseline information needed to help implement mitigation measures for these breakwater systems.     

山西太原郝庄ML5.0地震应急工作的思考

随着城市化进程的加快，城市的致灾形态愈发复杂多样，城市的承灾能力亦显脆弱。回顾了2002年9月3日发生在山西太原郝庄ML5．0地震的应急工作，剖析了这次震感十分强烈的城市直下型地震发生后政府及社会的应急措施及经验教训，分析了太原市这座地震重点防御城市的承灾能力。认为，这次地震的应急工作是高效、有序的，但亦存在潜在的危险因素。     

山西洪洞县ML5.0地震波及区的应急反应

2003年11月25日山西省临汾市洪洞县甘亭镇发生ML5.0地震，此次地震波及面广，对这次地震波及区——运城市地震局的地震应急工作进行了回顾，认为在平时工作中扎实地做好应急预案的演练工作是十分重要的。     

The long-term simulation of surface SO2 and evaluation of contributions from the different emission sources to Beijing city

With a high-resolution SO2 emission inventory categorized by industries and seasons for Beijing city and gridded meteorological data fields from NCEP, the pollution dispersion model, HYSPLIT4 (Hybrid Single Particulate Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory, version 4), is used to determine the day-to-day variation of surface SO2 in Beijing for 2000 and 2001. Furthermore,the contributions of different emission sources in and around Beijing to the surface SO2 are studied. As shown in comparison with observations, the model does well in simulating the daily variation and seasonal distribution. The model computation of the annual source contributions to Beijing surface SO2 indicates that local emissions from the city give the largest contribution and the sources from the surrounding regions contribute only about 20%. During SO2 polluted or unpolluted days, the contribution from the latter can exceed 30%, and depending upon weather conditions, the contribution may exceed 40%. If the emissions from the surrounding sources during the winter heating season are assumed to be doubled in intensity, their contribution to surface SO2 in Beijing increased from 21% to 35% and 25% to 40% in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Evaluation of 7 types of emission sources identified for Beijing for their relative contribution to the concentration of surface SO2 has shown that area emissions by industrial production and furnaces, though discharging relatively small amounts (less than 1/3 of the total), have the largest contribution to the urban surface SO2, which is the key to the mitigation of the pollutant in the city.     

The housing loss assessment of rural villages caused by earthquake disaster in Yunnan Province

Introduction In accordance with the systematical theory of natural disaster, the intensity of disaster-causing factor and the frangibility of the disaster-bearing body decide the disaster degree (SHI, 1991, 2002). The building facilities is the uppermost disaster-bearing body in the earthquake disaster system, as the population and fortune in the city are concentrated, the density of the housings is large, the antiseismic and disaster reduction of the city have always been an important aspect…     

建设地震应急救援志愿者队伍提高城市综合防御能力

介绍了2003年4月山西省永济市被中国地震局确定为社区地震应急救援试点城市后,在社区组建应急救援志愿者队伍的一系列举措及经验,认为社区作为防震减灾工作的基础单元,建立一支训练有素的应急救援志愿者队伍是非常必要的.