试论地质灾害与可持续发展

叙述了地质灾害的类型、成因,危害及对可持续发展影响的指标体系与评价结果,指出,人与自然环境的不协调发展导致了灾害的频繁发生,提出了防灾减灾的措施。     

山西煤炭资源开采诱发地面塌陷灾害的防治

叙述了山西省煤炭开采区地面塌陷的现状,确定出山西地面塌陷的系数为２３３５ｍ＾２,预测到２００２年山西全省的塌陷面积将达到２７００ｋｍ＾２,提出应对地面塌陷区进行综合防治和开发的建议。     

20世纪的十大灾难性地震(待续)

叙述了 2 0世纪全球 10次灾难性地震发生的时间、震级、地点、伤亡人数、建筑物遭破坏以及救灾的情况 ,记述了一些地震的前兆现象和经济损失。     

浅谈信息管理学在减灾对策中的应用

利用信息管理学的基本原理,按照中国现行的组织管理体制,总结分析现行的减灾工作的基本体制以及减灾信息资料建设、组织和传递方法。并通过对现今中国防灾减灾活动的分析归纳,探讨了市场经济条件下防灾减灾对策的信息管理模式。     

流域土地覆被变化水文效应的模拟——以长江上游源头区梭磨河为例

为分析地表覆被变化的水文效应,以半分布式的地形指数模型 (TOPOMODEL) 为基础,对梭磨河流域1960~1999年逐日流量过程进行了模拟。结果表明,对于流域面积2536km² 的梭磨河流域,该模型也能取得较好的模拟结果。模拟了流域40年来气候波动和地表覆被变化对流域水文的影响。最后在4种不同的流域土地覆被情景下模拟了1960~1999年逐日径流过程。对于实际蒸散发与潜在蒸发有300多mm差距的梭磨河流域,在其它条件不变的情况下,随着流域土地覆被和冠层最大截流量的增加,冠层截流蒸发和流域总蒸发增加,植被蒸腾和土壤表面蒸发减少,土壤水分增加而流域水分含量和饱和层含水量减少。地表径流、地表以下径流、总径流减小。重现期小于20年的洪峰流量减小,但对40年一遇的洪峰流量影响很小,甚至有增加洪峰流量的作用。     

气候变化减缓技术：国际现状与发展趋势

介绍了当前国际主要气候变化减缓技术,并以国际能源署（IEA）、世界自然基金会（WWF）、全球能源技术战略计划（GTSP）、世界资源研究所（WRI）和欧盟（EU）、美国等国际组织、机构与国家发布或拟议中的有关气候变化减缓技术的报告为框架,对全球的气候变化减缓技术部署进行了概述。在此基础上,分析了主要的气候变化减缓技术对减缓气候变化的预期贡献。最后,对减排技术的效果、安全性、对环境的影响以及公众的认可程度等进行了讨论。     

Integrated Debris Flow Disaster Mitigation - A Comprehensive Method for Debris Flow Disaster Mitigation

Integrated disaster mitigation needs interpreting torrent catchment areas as complex landscape systems. The history of valley-evolution shows the influence of climate and vegetation on the valley-evolution. The energy-concept (energy dissipation concept including the idea of the energy-line) is used for a simple explanation of debris flow. Examples of heavy debris flow disasters in controlled torrents in the Alps and Pyrenees give hints, which expanding the time scale can show that side-effects restrict or counteract the mitigation measures. A pallet of different mitigation measures to avoid or to reduce some of the side-effects is shown. The comprehensive method of disaster mitigation also includes the effect of vegetation. The pallet includes: avoiding hazards (hazard mapping, warning and alarming), appropriate land use and avoiding disaster-enhancing measures in the landscape and technical measures, which take into account their side-effects. The energy line is used as simple design theory. The Jiu-Jitsu Principle is explained too. With this comprehensive method a more sustainable reduction of disasters seems possible.     

Quick and Approximate Estimation of Earthquake Loss Based on Macroscopic Index of Exposure and Population Distribution

In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all exposed facilities are classified according to their structural type and/or occupancy. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated as the aggregate of all facility losses from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required for this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected catastrophic earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government with rescue and relief after the earthquake disaster.In this paper, we propose a quick and approximate estimation method of earthquake loss based on a macroscopic index of exposure and population distribution from GIS. This method was applied to analyze several earthquake scenarios with World Bank and CIESIN data. The preliminary analysis and comparison results show that our method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake risk.     

有机改性黏土对海水中营养盐及主要水质因子的影响

为了阐明黏土方法治理有害赤潮的生态环境效应，研究了有机改性黏土对海水中营养盐和溶解氧、化学耗氧量、pH等主要水质因子的影响。结果表明，有机改性黏土对营养盐，尤其是磷酸盐有一定的吸附作用，吸附量随水体中磷酸盐浓度的增加而增大，不同有机改性黏土对海水中磷酸盐的吸附能力为：有机改性黏土Ⅰ〉有机改性黏土Ⅱ〉有机改性黏土Ⅲ。通过有机改性黏土对磷酸盐的吸附再释放作用研究，进一步探讨了磷酸盐释放作用对赤潮异弯藻（Heterosigma akashiwo）、东海原甲藻（Prorocentrum donghaiense）等赤潮生物生长的影响。实验结果表明，经过有机改性的黏土有利于提高其对磷酸盐的吸附能力，降低对磷酸盐的解吸率，缓解海水富营养化程度，虽然少量被吸附的磷酸盐能缓慢释放，但仍不足以维持赤潮生物的正常生长。同时利用有机改性黏土治理赤潮能显著改善溶解氧、pH、化学耗氧量等水质指标，有利于治理赤潮后的环境修复。     

Identification of hydrodynamic coefficients in ship maneuvering equations of motion by Estimation-Before-Modeling technique

Estimation-Before-Modeling (EBM) technique (or the two-step method) is a system identification method that estimates parameters in a dynamic model. Given sea trial data, the extended Kalman filter and modified Bryson–Frazier smoother can be used to estimate motion variables, hydrodynamic force, and the speed and the direction of current. And using these estimated data, we can use the ridge regression method to estimate the hydrodynamic coefficients in a model. An identifiable state space model is constructed in case that current effect is included and the maneuvering characteristics of a ship are analyzed by correlation analysis. To better identify hydrodynamic coefficients, we suggest the sub-optimal input scenario that considers the D-optimal criterion. Finally, the algorithm is confirmed against real sea trial data of 113K tanker.