崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究

我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。     

CMIP5多模式资料中气温的BMA预测方法研究

利用CMIP5的8个全球气候系统模式对气温的回报结果进行贝叶斯模式平均(简称BMA)试验,并采用均方根误差、距平相关系数、连续等级概率评分等对多模式集合平均(简称EMN)和BMA的回报结果进行检验、评估。结果表明,EMN的回报效果优于8个单模式的回报效果,而BMA的回报效果最好,其区域平均的均方根误差比EMN小0.5℃左右。在此基础上,利用中等排放情景RCP4.5下CMIP5模式中的年际年代际预估资料对2011—2035年的气温进行预估。研究发现东亚地区在2011—2035年气温将普遍升高,海洋上的增暖幅度较小,陆地上的增暖幅度较大,且增暖幅度随纬度升高而增大。青藏高原及中国北方大部分地区气温将明显升高,升温幅度在1℃左右,而南方的升温幅度较小,约为0.3~0.6℃。     

山西陆面过程对A1B排放情景下全球变化趋势的响应

山西地处气候过渡带,气候敏感、生态脆弱,在全球气候变暖背景下其陆面物理过程受气候波动影响十分明显。本文利用NCAR CCSM IPCC AR4陆面分量模式(CLM)20世纪气候模拟(20C3M)和21世纪SRES A1B排放情景下的模拟结果,对山西省21世纪(2001~2099年)与20世纪(1901~1999年)陆面能量和水文变量进行了对比分析。结果显示:(1)模式模拟出山西地区未来地面温度的空间及时间分布特征。未来山西省地面温度呈明显上升趋势,上升速率冬季大于夏季。空间上,增温幅度冬季自北向南递减,夏季自西向东递减;(2)未来山西省陆面各分量空间上,净辐射通量西北增幅大于东南,降水率和径流率则与其相反,潜热通量与蒸发率一致,西南部增加幅度大,土壤含水率冬夏分布相反,感热通量呈下降趋势,西南下降幅度大;时间上,净辐射通量、潜热通量均表现出不同程度的上升趋势,土壤热通量冬季上升,夏季下降;地表水循环的各分量均呈增加趋势。     

Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm

This paper addresses the problem of interdependent failures of critical infrastructures in disasters. Disruptions to critical infrastructure systems such as electric power or transportation frequently cause major social and economic loss in disasters, both directly and through failures in one system leading to or compounding disruptions in another. Strategic approaches regarding infrastructure failures are needed to guide community mitigation and preparedness efforts. This paper defines and provides a conceptual framework for investigating infrastructure failure interdependencies (IFIs) from the standpoint of societal impacts. In order to identify empirical patterns, a unique database has been developed of IFIs observed in major electric power outage events. This paper presents analysis of this data for a major Canadian disaster, the 1998 Ice Storm that affected the northeastern region of the country. The analysis identifies IFIs due to power outage caused by the storm that are of greatest societal concern. These represent potential foci for effective, targeted pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness efforts. The framework and approach are broadly applicable across a range of natural and human-induced hazards.     

福建龙岩新罗区地质灾害形成条件及其机理探讨

新罗区是福建省地质条件复杂、地质灾害最严重的县区之一。地质灾害的主要类型有不稳定斜坡、滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、岩溶地面塌陷、采空区地面塌陷六种。其中滑坡、岩溶地面塌陷是区内地质灾害的最主要类型,灾害呈现点多、面广、规模小、稳定性差的特点。野外调查表明,新罗区地质灾害的形成是多种因素相互作用的结果。通过对新罗区地质灾害的形成机理分析研究表明,地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造以及水文地质等因素是地质灾害形成的基础因素;降雨及人类活动等因素是地质灾害形成的动态因素。     

Analysis of the gas hydrate accumulation condition in Quemocuo area of Qiangtang Basin

Based on the survey results of QK-8 gas hydrate drilling test well and the clue of high hydrocarbon gas in Quemocuo area, the authors systematically analyzed the influence of permafrost thickness on natural gas hydrate accumulation, hydrocarbon source rocks characteristics, reservoir space, mitigation system and other geological factors, considering the geological factors affecting gas hydrate accumulation in permafrost regions. The potential of gas hydrate accumulation was also clarified. The results show that the thickness of permafrost is large (100 m). Hydrocarbon source rocks of Triassic have a overall performance of high abundance of organic matter, with kerogen type Ⅱ₂ and higher maturity (R_o about 1.3%~1.5%). The reservoir space is mainly composed of cavity - fractured reservoirs, followed by fracture and pore types. It has an effective migration pathway and a good regional cap layer. At the same time, natural gas hydrate associated minerals such as calcite and pyrite were well developed in the multilayer sections. It is concluded that there is a certain potential for gas hydrate accumulation in Quemocuo area after comprehensive analysis, which is the main direction for the comprehensive energy resources investigation of the gas hydrate petroleum system.     

A conceptual framework and its application for addressing leakage: the case of avoided deforestation

Abstract

One of the most challenging technical issues associated with project-based mechanisms is that of leakage. A conceptual framework is proposed for the identification and analysis of leakage potentially generated by a project. The categorization of leakage based on the actors responsible for their manifestation is proposed, which divides sources of leakage into primary and secondary types. It is the actors or agents responsible for the baseline activities that cause primary leakage. Secondary leakage occurs when the project's outputs create incentives for third parties to increase emissions elsewhere. This distinction, based on the source of leakage, provides a basis for the analysis outlined in the paper. The extent and type of leakage will vary depending on the project typology and design. Using a decision tree approach, the process of identifying potential sources of leakage is demonstrated for the case study of avoided deforestation projects. If the main elements determining a baseline are properly identified and understood, in particular the ‘baseline agents’, a combination of the decision tree approach and apportioning responsibility, can assist in the quantification and monitoring of primary leakage. An analysis at the project design stage can also assist in minimizing the risk of future leakage. Econometric methods may prove more useful in analyzing secondary leakage.     

Carbon Sequestration and Turnover in Semiarid Savannas and Dry Forest

Data on carbon and biomass budgets under different land use in tropical savannas and some dry forests are reviewed. Global data show wide ranges of biomass carbon stocks (20-150 Mg C ha-1), net primary production (2-15 Mg C ha-1y-1) and litter production (2-10 Mg C ha-1y-1) for the semiarid tropics. Although ranges for soil carbon are also wide, an average figure for the top 20 cm is probably 10 g C kg-1, or about 25 Mg C ha-1. In order to arrive at a better understanding of C budgets and their controls, two regional reviews are presented for NE Brazil and W. Africa.In NE Brazil approximately 40% of the lands have "near-climax" native vegetation. Less than 10% of the area is planted annually, but about 3-4 times that area is affected by shifting cultivation which has an average cycle of 5 y arable use followed by 20 y or more recovery. Standing biomass of native caatinga shows nearly the full global range with 2-50 Mg C ha-1. Litter fall around 1-2 Mg C ha-1y-1 is partly decomposed and partly consumed by animals, resulting in low average soil C levels near 8 g kg-1, or 20 Mg C ha-1. Under cultivation, C sequestration is decreased, and soils lose approximately half their C stocks before being abandoned.In W. Africa between 50-70% of the land is under a management regime with minimal C returns to the soils. Overgrazing and over-exploitation for fuel wood has resulted in land degradation. Short fallow periods on cultivated lands have caused serious declines in soil C stocks. Both C sequestration and stocks are therefore lower in W. Africa than in NE Brazil.Improvements in the C sequestration in these semi arid regions depend on an increase in crop production under suitable rotations, improved fallow and animal husbandry, and a limitation on biomnass burning. Use of fertilizer is required for improved productivities but socioeconomic constraints largely prevent such improvements, resulting in a very limited scope for changes in soil C management.     

From burden-sharing to opportunity-sharing: unlocking the climate negotiations

In conventional thinking on climate negotiations, traditional fossil fuel-based economic growth is coupled with carbon emissions, thus mitigation has been regarded as a burden on economic growth. The scarcity within the global emission budget and the interpretation of climate change as ‘global public goods’ have led climate change negotiations into a burden-sharing deadlock. However, some recent economics studies suggest that mitigation could actually promote local economic growth opportunities; consequently increasing the incentives for unilateral mitigation actions. This article highlights the implications for the strategies of unlocking the climate negotiations deadlock. Following an explanation of how climate change negotiations have led to a burden-sharing game and have become a deadlock, some new ways of thinking (based on the emerging literature) are used to suggest how mitigation could promote local economic growth.Policy relevanceOne policy implication is the need to change the current mindset in global climate change negotiations. The current framing of burden-sharing can be abandoned in favour of opportunity-sharing. This more positive approach will stimulate progress on climate action. Therefore, green growth should be situated at the heart of post-2020 climate change regime. A new two-track architecture is proposed for achieving the transformation as a combined top-down and bottom-up approach. A lower legally binding target based on equity principles of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) could form a more politically realistic and inclusive basis for participation. To complement this, a green growth club would promote a higher voluntary global ambition and accelerate mitigation.     

Institutional dimensions of the developing REDD+ process in Cameroon

The reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) initiative has emerged in recent years as a mechanism to simultaneously address climate change, biodiversity, and poverty reduction challenges at the margins of tropical forests. Congo Basin countries, including Cameroon, have embraced the opportunities that REDD+ provides, with great expectations. Yet, it needs to be investigated whether the enabling institutional environment, which is required for implementing REDD+, is present. Understanding is still limited on how to build adequate and strong institutional relations that could shape the reforms towards the establishment of efficient emissions reductions schemes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains on the operational mechanisms of REDD+, suggesting that, to catalyse effectiveness, there is a need to come up with a governance model nested in relevant policy frameworks. This study builds on a modified ‘4Is’ framework – Institutions, Interests, Ideas and Information – to analyse REDD+ and explore stakeholders' perceptions on the local forest governance potential. A structural implementation model to optimize the effectiveness of REDD+ is developed. Findings suggest that governments need to review existing policies to take into account participation, local people rights, and information access as a way to stimulate actors' willingness to contribute to emissions reductions and carbon stock increases under REDD+ regimes.