1970~2008年安徽省气温时空格局变化

采用协同克里格(Co-kriging)指数模型对安徽省1970~2008年平均气温、日极端最高、低气温进行空间插值。结果表明:全省平均日极端最高气温的分布与平均气温分布基本相反,平均日极端最低气温的分布与平均气温分布基本一致,前者反映日极端最高气温时空格局是不稳定的,后者反映日极端最低气温时空格局是稳定的。20世纪全省日极端最低气温具有1970年代低、80年代高、90年代低、21世纪头10年高的年代际变化周期;全省年平均气温和日极端最高气温是70年代升高、80年代下降、90年代和21世纪头10年继续升高,但值得注意的是21世纪头10年代年平均气温增长量比90年代小0.1℃。芜湖、安庆、马鞍山等沿江城市对气温升高贡献率突出,90年代年平均气温和日极端最高气温分别比80年代增加0.7℃和0.25℃,21世纪头10年年平均气温和日极端最高气温分别比90年代增加0.8℃和1.13℃,已超过大别山区相应的增长量一倍以上。     

钱塘江盾构越江隧道最小覆土厚度的确定

钱塘江洪水冲刷河床与大潮回淤交替出现,必将影响盾构越江隧道安全。如何合理地确定越江隧道的埋深,既确保隧道安全,又降低工程造价,是一个迫切需要解决的问题。已有的研究成果认为,300年一遇的罕见洪水冲刷河床的最大深度可达16 m,据此初步选择了河床冲刷后最小埋深分别为3.5 m和4.0 m两种隧道埋设方案,开展了隧道抗上浮研究。研究结果表明,考虑隧道周围土体和管片环间纵向螺栓的剪切抗浮效应时,两种方案均能够满足抗浮要求。但施工期刚脱出盾尾的管片环在未硬化注浆体的浮力作用下,大大增加隧道上浮的可能性,需要加强施工期的管理工作,减少对周围土体扰动。     

吉林前郭地区一维P波速度模型研究

基于2013年10月31日至2014年8月25日吉林前郭地区发生的290次地震事件的P波到时数据,利用Kissling提出的VELEST程序,获取了前郭地区最小一维P波速度模型。并将新模型应用到前郭地震重定位和PTD定震源深度中,二者综合显示获取的最小一维P波速度模型对于提高地震定位的精度有一定的现实意义。     

基桩低应变法三维干扰最小点位置的影响因素及确定方法

通过工程实测信号和数值模拟分析,证明了瞬态集中荷载敲击下,桩顶三维干扰速度信号的强度沿径向先递减后递增,存在干扰最小点,并对比了不同学者提出的干扰最小点位置处的信号。参数分析表明,三维干扰最小点的位置与桩径、桩长、荷载脉宽、桩身混凝土弹性模量、土层剪切波速及土层泊松比等桩、土参数几乎无关,但与桩身混凝土泊松比密切相关,且泊松比越大,干扰最小点的位置越靠近桩中心。给出了干扰最小点位置与桩身混凝土泊松比之间的函数表达式,可方便应用于实际工程。     

利用目标点最小生成树的路面裂缝检测

分析路面裂缝的成像特点,提出了一种基于目标点最小生成树的路面裂缝检测方法。最小生成树具有描述空间线性聚集特征的优点,有利于实现对裂缝的全局分析和提取。实验结果表明,对不连续裂缝的处理,本文方法优于传统方法。     

Regional Temperature Forecast for the Next Day in Hong Kong

For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of maximum (minimum) temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 (1.1 to 1.4) degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.     

新疆地区地震目录最小完整性震级和台网科学布局研究

地震目录的最小完整性震级M.是地震学中最基础、最重要的研究内容之一,也是地震观测台网效能评估的关键.本文对构造活动剧烈、地震活动水平高、台站地理分布复杂的新疆地区开展M研究,试图为该地区的地震危险性评估和台站科学布局等研究提供参考资料.基于新疆地震台网发展的5个阶段划分,采用基于G-R关系的交互式分析方法,研究了M.的...     

Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.     

The oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) off Chile as intense source of CO2 and N2O

The oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are recognized as intense sources of N₂O greenhouse gas (GHG) and could also be potential sources of CO₂, the most important GHG for the present climate change. This study evaluates, for one of the most intense and shallow OMZ, the Chilean East South Pacific OMZ, the simultaneous N₂O and CO₂ fluxes at the air–sea interface. Four cruises (2000–2002) and 1 year of monitoring (21°–30°–36°S) off Chile allowed the determination of the CO₂ and N₂O concentrations at the sea surface and the analysis of fluxes variations associated with different OMZ configurations. The Chilean OMZ area can be an intense GHG oceanic local source of both N₂O and CO₂. The mean N₂O fluxes are 5–10 times higher than the maximal previous historical source in an OMZ open area as in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. For CO₂, the mean fluxes are also positive and correspond to very high oceanic sources. Even if different coupling and decoupling between N₂O and CO₂ are observed along the Chilean OMZ, 65% of the situations represent high CO₂ and/or N₂O sources. The high GHG sources are associated with coastal upwelling transport of OMZ waters rich in N₂O and probably also in CO₂, located at a shallow depth. The integrated OMZ role on GHG should be better considered to improve our understanding of the past and future atmospheric CO₂ and N₂O evolutions.     

Asymmetric variability between maximum and minimum temperatures in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from tree rings

Ecological systems in the headwaters of the Yellow River, characterized by hash natural environmental conditions, are very vulnerable to climatic change. In the most recent decades, this area greatly attracted the public's attention for its more and more deteriorating environmental conditions. Based on tree-ring samples from the Xiqing Mountain and A'nyêmagên Mountains at the headwaters of the Yellow River in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we reconstructed the minimum temperatures in the winter half year over the last 425 years and the maximum temperatures in the summer half year over the past 700 years in this region. The variation of minimum temperature in the winter half year during the time span of 1578―1940 was a relatively stable trend, which was followed by an abrupt warming trend since 1941. However, there is no significant warming trend for the maximum temperature in the summer half year over the 20th century. The asymmetric variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures were observed in this study over the past 425 years. During the past 425 years, there are similar variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures; however, the minimum temperatures vary about 25 years earlier compared to the maximum temperatures. If such a trend of variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures over the past 425 years continues in the future 30 years, the maximum temperature in this region will increase significantly.