重庆地区夏季一次降水过程及增雨潜力的数值模拟分析

利用国家气象中心GRAPES人工增雨云系模式,选取2008年7月4日重庆地区一次降水过程进行数值模拟,分析了重庆地区降雨天气的水汽分布、云系宏微观分布、云中微物理转化和增雨潜力等特征。结果表明：本次降水大气过程中,重庆地区水汽含量极为丰富,水汽分布与地形分布呈明显的对应关系,低层水汽输送较大,整层水汽通量较高,有明显水汽辐合,云中液态水对地面降水影响很大。西南气流和地形共同作用为重庆地区液态水的形成提供了有利条件,在东北部山区迎风坡处大量水汽累积抬升,易形成丰富的液态水。重庆东北部地区水汽向云水转化较强,过冷液态水含量丰富,冰晶含量少,0℃层附近水汽垂直通量较大,降水效率较低,有较大的增雨潜力。     

MICROPHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN TYPHOON MORAKOT (2009)

Microphysical characteristics of the raindrop size distribution(RSD)in Typhoon Morakot(2009) have been studied through the PARSIVEL disdrometer measurements at one site in Fujian province,China during the passage of the storm from 7 to 10 August 2009.The time evolution of the RSD reveals different segments of the storm.Significant difference was observed in the microphysical characteristics between the outer rainband and the eyewall;the eyewall precipitation had a broader size distribution(a smaller slope) than the outer rainband and eye region.The outer rainband and the eye region produced stratiform rains while the eyewall precipitation was convective or mixed stratiform-convective.The RSD was typically characterized by a single peak distribution and well represented by the gamma distribution.The relations between the shape(μ)and slope(Λ)of the gamma distribution and between the reflectivity(Z)and rainfall rate(R)have been investigated.Based on the NW-Dm relationships,we suggest that the stratiform rain for the outer rainband and the eye region was formed by the melting of graupel or rimed ice particles,which likely originated from the eyewall clouds.     

暴雨模拟中积云对流参数化方案的对比试验

利用WRF中尺度数值预报模式,选用七种微物理方案及网格嵌套技术分别与Kain-Fritsch(new Eta)、Betts-Miller-Janjic、Grell-Devenyi（简称KF、BMJ、GD方案）三种积云对流参数方案匹配,对2007年6月1—2日湖南南部的暴雨过程进行了模拟试验。模拟结果表明：选用Lin等微物理方案和三种积云方案,采用20 km的格点分辨率,基本上可以模拟这场暴雨的范围,且采用网格嵌套技术的模拟结果优于未采用嵌套的模拟结果;其中KF方案模拟的强降水位置、强度与实况比较接近;BMJ方案模拟的强降水范围偏大、强度偏强,位置偏南,上述两种方案都不同程度地存在着虚假的暴雨中心;GD方案模拟的强降水范围、强度均偏小。     

Numerical simulation on the evolution of cloud particles in 3-D convective cloud

A 3-D convective cloud model with compressible non-hydrostatic dynamics and the spectral bin microphysics of a 2-D slab-symmetric model has been used to simulate an observed supercell storm occurring on 29 June, 2000 near Bird City, Kansas, USA. The main objective of this paper is to study the evolution of particles in this convective storm with bin spectral microphysics scheme. Graupels form and grow through two mechanisms, deposition and riming, with the riming process dominant on top of the inflow and in the upper portion of main updraft. Over the outflow and during the developing and mature stages of the storm, graupel particles mainly grow through deposition with dominant unimodal spectra. Most fall out after growing up. Reducing initial relative humidity disturbance (increasing initial potential temperature disturbance) has negative impact on the formation and growth of graupels over the inflow (outflow). This study shows that large graupel and hail could be suppressed by altering the deposition and coalescence process over the inflow and main updraft. At different locations of the convective cells and with different initial humidity and potential temperature disturbance, the graupel formation and growth mechanisms are different, so as to the feasible hail suppression locations and methods. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40537034, 40805057), and Foundation of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education in Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (Grant No. KLME060202)     

基于不同微物理过程的广西沿海南风型暖区暴雨的数值模拟研究

基于WRFV3.6.1,利用其8个云微物理参数化方案对2010—2016年华南汛期（4—9月）的6个南风型暖区暴雨个例进行数值模拟与多方案集成试验,并采用基于对象的诊断评估方法（MODE）对模拟结果进行评估。结果发现对于大多数个例,WRF模式都能较好地模拟出暖区暴雨的降水带,对暖区降水带模拟最好的参数化方案是WSM6方案,其次是Lin方案;模拟效果较差的参数化方案为CAM5.1与NSSL 2-mon方案。选取模拟结果较好的个例进行诊断分析,发现不同参数化方案得到的动力学特征以及云微物理特征相关变量存在较大差异,导致模拟降水的差异。在单方案模拟的基础上,开展多方案集成试验,发现多方案集成方法能够有效降低模式模拟的不确定性,产生更稳定的模拟结果。     

基于CWRF的中国近海热带气旋集合模拟及其对物理参数化方案的敏感性研究

为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多...     

积云参数化和微物理方案不同组合应用对台风路径模拟效果的影响

利用美国国家环境预测中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)联合研发的天气研究和预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF),研究了不同积云对流参数化方案和微物理过程方案对0514号台风"彩蝶"路径的影响.结果表明,积云对流参数化方案对台风路径影响较大,KF方案比BM方案能更好地模拟出台风路径;使用KF方案时,选择微物理方案比不选微物理方案对于台风路径有更好的模拟结果,其中,Ferrier、WSM6和Lin非常接近于实况;KF方案较好地模拟出副热带高压(简称副高)的西伸和东退的变化以及台风环流的风场分布和强度.     

A Simple And General Subgrid Model Suitable Both For Surface Layer And Free-Stream Turbulence

A new and general approach is presented to allow standard subgrid schemes to besuitable both for surface layer and free-stream turbulence. Simple modificationsto subgrid schemes are proposed and derived for any vertical stabilityconditions. They are simple to implement in models and are suitable for morecomplicated simulations such as large-eddy simulation with inhomogeneoussurface conditions or complex topography. They are also applicable to mesoscaleand large-scale models. These modifications are physically justified by recentmeasurements of spectra close to the ground. The spectral analysis presentedshows how the energy deficit of blocked turbulence for a given dissipation(`anomalous dissipation') dramatically affects the coefficients to be used insubgrid schemes. As shown for neutral and convective cases with wind shear,these changes allow us to substantially improve the prediction of profiles for themean quantities in the surface layer. Agreement with similarity laws in the unstablecase is found up to about 0.2z_i, for simulated shear, stabilityprofiles and dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy.     

两类双参数云微物理方案对夏季强降水事件模拟能力的对比研究

运用中尺度WRF模式,分别采用Morrison(MOR)和Milbrandt-Yau(MY)双参数化云微物理方案,对2010年7月20—21日辽宁省的一次强降水过程进行模拟,通过对比分析两个方案所对应的地表累积降水量、降水强度、云中微物理量的模拟结果,评估两个双参数方案对强降水事件的模拟能力及主要微物理过程的差异。结果表明,在对雨带和强降水中心的位置上,MOR方案的模拟能力优于MY方案,但MY方案对强降水中心强度模拟能力则优于MOR方案;两方案对强降水宏观特征的模拟差异在一定程度上体现了它们在微物理具体方案上的差异,相比MY方案而言,MOR方案模拟降水发展期的垂直水汽通量高,使得雪晶的凝华增长、碰连增长增强,从而导致MOR方案的冰晶含量低,雪晶含量高,通过雪晶的凇附作用形成的霰含量也比MY方案高,霰的凇附增长消耗了大量过冷水,使冷云中云滴(过冷水)含量减少; MOR方案模拟得到的600 hPa到地表的雨滴直径均为1 mm,与实际雨滴直径的观测值不符,需要未来进一步开展研究,对原方案进行优化。     

2014年夏季青藏高原云和降水微物理特征的数值模拟研究

为了加强对青藏高原（高原）云和降水微物理特征的深入认识,采用高分辨率中尺度数值预报模式（WRF）,对第三次青藏高原大气科学试验2014年7月3-25日发生的6次不同强度云和降水过程进行了数值模拟分析。研究结果表明:（1）青藏高原夏季云和降水过程具有独特性。高原夏季对流的促发机制主要是午后高原加热造成的,云和降水具有明显的日变化。午夜后,对流性降水一般转化为层状云降水,具有明显的0℃层回波亮带,并且会产生强降水。大部分对流云云顶高度超过15 km（海拔高度）,最大上升气流速度为10-40 m/s。（2）6次云过程中均具有高过冷云水含量,主要分布在0—-20℃层,冰晶含量主要分布在-20℃层以上的区域,强盛的对流云中,可出现在-40℃层以上区域;雨水集中分布在融化层之下,说明其主要依赖降水性冰粒子的融化过程;雪和霰粒子含量高,分布范围广,说明云中冰相过程非常活跃。（3）高原夏季云中水凝物的转化过程和降水的形成机理具有明显特点。霰粒子的融化过程是地面雨水的主要来源,暖雨过程对降水的直接贡献很小,但通过暖雨过程形成的过冷雨滴的异质冻结过程对云中霰胚的形成十分重要。霰粒子的增长主要依靠凇附过程以及聚并雪晶的增长过程。