GRAPES全球模式云方案的诊断研究

在对GRAPES全球预报系统(GRAPES_GFS)云预报性能进行诊断评估的基础上,对凝结(华)和蒸发等物理过程及对流卷出对云的影响过程进行改进和优化,旨在提高GRAPES_GFS云量及其特征量和降水的预报精度.通过研究GRAPES全球模式、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和美国环境预报中心(NCEP)全球模式中3种...     

Precipitation Microphysical Processes in the Inner Rainband of Tropical Cyclone Kajiki (2019) over the South China Sea Revealed by Polarimetric Radar

Polarimetric radar and 2D video disdrometer observations provide new insights into the precipitation microphysical processes and characteristics in the inner rainband of tropical cyclone(TC)Kajiki(2019)in the South China Sea for the first time.The precipitation of Kajiki is dominated by high concentrations and small(<3 mm)raindrops,which contribute more than 98%to the total precipitation.The average mass-weighted mean diameter and logarithmic normalized intercept are 1.49 mm and 4.47,respectively,indicating a larger mean diameter and a lower concentration compared to the TCs making landfall in eastern China.The ice processes of the inner rainband are dramatically different among different stages.The riming process is dominant during the mature stage,while during the decay stage the aggregation process is dominant.The vertical profiles of the polarimetric radar variables together with ice and liquid water contents in the convective region indicate that the formation of precipitation is dominated by warm-rain processes.Large raindrops collect cloud droplets and other raindrops,causing reflectivity,differential reflectivity,and specific differential phase to increase with decreasing height.That is,accretion and coalescence play a critical role in the formation of heavy rainfall.The melting of different particles generated by the ice process has a great influence on the initial raindrop size distribution(DSD)to further affect the warm-rain processes.The DSD above heavy rain with the effect of graupel has a wider spectral width than the region without the effect of graupel.     

The Great Dun Fell Experiment 1995: an overview

During March and April of 1995 a major international field project was conducted at the UMIST field station site on Great Dun Fell in Cumbria, Northern England. The hill cap cloud which frequently envelopes this site was used as a natural flow through reactor to examine the sensitivity of the cloud microphysics to the aerosol entering the cloud and also to investigate the effects of the cloud in changing the aerosol size distribution, chemical composition and associated optical properties. To investigate these processes, detailed measurements of the cloud water chemistry (including the chemistry of sulphur compounds, organic and inorganic oxidised nitrogen and ammonia), cloud microphysics and properties of the aerosol and trace gas concentrations upwind and downwind of the cap cloud were undertaken. It was found that the cloud droplet number was generally strongly correlated to aerosol number concentration, with up to 2000 activated droplets cm⁻³ being observed in the most polluted conditions. In such conditions it was inferred that hygroscopic organic compounds were important in the activation process. Often, the size distribution of the aerosol was substantially modified by the cloud processing, largely due to the aqueous phase oxidation of S(IV) to sulphate by hydrogen peroxide, but also through the uptake and fixing of gas phase nitric acid as nitrate, increasing the calculated optical scattering of the aerosol substantially (by up to 24%). New particle formation was also observed in the ultrafine aerosol mode (at about 5 nm) downwind of the cap cloud, particularly in conditions of low total aerosol surface area and in the presence of ammonia and HCl gases. This was seen to occur at night as well as during the day via a mechanism which is not yet understood. The implications of these results for parameterising aerosol growth in Global Climate Models are explored.     

Contribution of the MODIS instrument to observations of deep convective storms and stratospheric moisture detection in GOES and MSG imagery

Past studies based on the NOAA/AVHRR and GOES I-M imager instruments have documented the link between certain storm top features referred to as the “cold-U/V” shape in the 10–12 μm IR band imagery and plumes of increased 3.7/3.9 μm band reflectivity. Later, similar features in the 3.7/3.9 μm band have been documented in the AVHRR/3 1.6 μm band imagery.The present work focuses on storm top observations utilizing the MODIS data. The MODIS instrument (available onboard NASA's EOS Terra and Aqua satellites) provides image data with significantly better geometrical resolution (in some of its bands) and broader range of spectral bands as compared to that from AVHRR/3 observations. One of the goals of this study is to evaluate the contribution of this new instrument to observations of convective storm tops. Besides the cloud top features linked to storm top microphysics and morphology, the paper also addresses the possibility of detection of lower stratospheric water vapor above cold convective storm tops. This issue is explored utilizing MODIS as well as GOES and MSG imagery.In addition, the paper discusses an alternative interpretation of the “cold-U/V” patterns at the top of intense storms by a mechanism of “plume masking” as suggested by some of the observations.     

A Comparison of Two Bulk Microphysics Parameterizations for the Study of Aerosol Impacts on an Idealized Supercell

Idealized supercell storms are simulated with two aerosol-aware bulk microphysics schemes(BMSs),the Thompson and the Chen-Liu-Reisner(CLR),using the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model.The objective of this study is to investigate the parameterizations of aerosol effects on cloud and precipitation characteristics and assess the necessity of introducing aerosols into a weather prediction model at fine grid resolution.The results show that aerosols play a decisive role in the composition of clouds in terms of the mixing ratios and number concentrations of liquid and ice hydrometeors in an intense supercell storm.The storm consists of a large amount of cloud water and snow in the polluted environment,but a large amount of rainwater and graupel instead in the clean environment.The total precipitation and rain intensity are suppressed in the CLR scheme more than in the Thompson scheme in the first three hours of storm simulations.The critical processes explaining the differences are the auto-conversion rate in the warm-rain process at the beginning of storm intensification and the low-level cooling induced by large ice hydrometeors.The cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)activation and auto-conversion processes of the two schemes exhibit considerable differences,indicating the inherent uncertainty of the parameterized aerosol effects among different BMSs.Beyond the aerosol effects,the fall speed characteristics of graupel in the two schemes play an important role in the storm dynamics and precipitation via low-level cooling.The rapid intensification of storms simulated with the Thompson scheme is attributed to the production of hail-like graupel.     

Adiabatic predictions and observations of cloud droplet spectral broadness

The evolution of cloud droplet size spectra is calculated using an adiabatic condensational growth model. Broadness (e.g., standard deviation of diameter) of cloud droplet spectra in adiabatic cloud parcels was determined to be critically dependent on cloud supersaturation. Although droplet spectra become narrower as growth continues, the rate of narrowing is slower when cloud supersaturation is lower. This actually leads to broader droplet spectra for more continental clouds or for weaker updrafts because both of these conditions are associated with lower cloud supersaturations. More continental type clouds, which have higher concentrations of smaller droplets, were indeed found to have larger dispersions (standard deviation of diameter/mean diameter of cloud droplets). Some of these results were consistent with observations, but the larger dispersions that were much more commonly observed for continental compared to maritime clouds were due almost exclusively to smaller droplets rather than broader droplet distributions. Contrary to the model calculations, typical observations show that cleaner clouds usually have broader droplet spectra. The gaps in magnitude between theory and observations of broadness are significant in all clouds. When cloud parcels that had ascended under different updraft conditions were compared at a constant cloud altitude, parcels with lower updrafts were predicted to have broader droplet spectra with larger mean diameters. This trend of apparent spectral broadening was consistent with observations for some near-adiabatic cloud parcels.     

祁连山云系云微物理结构和人工增雨催化个例模拟研究

改进了胡志晋、刘奇俊的云物理方案,并实现了与GRAPES模式的耦合;利用包括了新云物理方案的GRAPES模式对祁连山地区一次山区云降水过程进行了数值模拟,研究了祁连山地区云系的微物理结构,并开展了人工催化的数值试验研究。结果表明：（1）耦合的双参数方案能够较好的模拟此次降水范围、强度及云场分布的特点和规律;（2）新方案给出了祁连山云系的合理微观结构和它的特征;（3）播撒冰晶可以增加降雨,在云初始阶段播撒增雨范围较广,在云发展阶段播撒增雨范围较集中;（4）播撒冰晶后,云的动力结构发生了改变。     

WRF模式中微物理和积云对流参数化方案对台风“莫拉克”模拟敏感性分析

基于WRF模式,研究了不同微物理和积云对流参数化方案对0908号台风"莫拉克"的路径移动、强度变化和降水过程模拟的敏感性。结果显示,积云对流参数化方案对台风"莫拉克"的路径和强度模拟起主导作用,采用Kain-Fritsch积云对流方案模拟的72 h平均路径误差较小;降水量的模拟主要取决于微物理参数化方案,而降水分布的好坏更依赖于积云对流参数化方案,而采用Thompson微物理和Grell-Devenyi积云对流方案的试验导致累积降水极值的偏干误差较大。积云对流方案对环境场和潜热释放模拟存在差异,导致路径和强度、温度廓线和垂直运动的模拟结果不同,而微物理方案对不同相态降水粒子的垂直分布结构模拟存在差异,从而导致降水模拟的差别。此外,由不同试验构造的集合平均能减少单个成员模拟路径和降水的不确定性,特别在强降水方面能减小空报数和漏报数,提高TS评分,改善模拟效果。     

WRF模式对2013年1月华北一次大雾的数值对比试验

采用WRF模式系统模拟了2013年1月22—23日华北大雾天气过程,针对不同的边界层方案、微物理方案和陆面方案,设计了三组数值试验方案,并利用地面观测资料对其模拟效果进行了对比分析,找出了部分最适合于此次大雾过程模拟的参数化方案,它们分别是TEMF边界层方案、Goddard微物理方案和RUC陆面方案。此次数值试验结果还表明,WRF模式对大雾天气地面风速风向的模拟能力较好,其他气象要素存在一定的误差,用10 m液态水含量和10 m相对湿度指标共同诊断大雾天气能有效提高大雾判识准确率。