论专业气象服务可持续发展若干问题

论述影响专业气象服务可持续发展的８个问题,并具体分析每个问题的特点,指出解决问题的思路。     

Review of China's scientific research progress in polar meteorology in the last 30 years

The Antarctic and Arctic are sensitive to global climate change; therefore, they are key regions of global climate change research. This paper, the progress in scientific investigations and research regarding the atmosphere in the polar regions over the last 30 years by Chinese scientists is summarized. Primary understanding of the relationship between the polar regions and global change, especially, the variations in time and space in the Antarctic and Arctic regions with respect to climate change is indicated. Operational weather forecasts for investigation of the polar regions have also been established. Moreover, changes in sea ice and their impact on the atmosphere of polar regions have been diagnosed and simulated. Parameterization of the atmospheric boundary layer of different underlying layers and changes in the atmospheric ozone in the polar region has also been experimented. Overall, there has been great progress in studies of the possible impact of changes in the atmospheric environment of polar regions on circulation in East Asia and the climate of China.     

Optical Response of the Atmosphere During the Caribbean Total Solar Eclipses of 26 February 1998 and of 3 February 1916 at Falcón state,Venezuela

An investigation of the optical response of the atmosphere before, during, and afterthe total solar eclipse of 26 February 1998 at the Caribbean Peninsula of Paraguaná (Falcón State) in Venezuela, was made by measuring photometrically the intensity of the sky brightness in three strategic directions: zenith, horizon anti-parallel or opposite the umbra path, and horizon perpendicular to this path. From these measurements, and by applying in an inverse way an empirical photometric model, very rough estimations of theextinction coefficient, and also of the average optical depth, were obtained in one of these particular directions. However based on meteorological measurements such as those of relative humidity and temperature, and applying a different model, a better estimation in the visual of the total global extinction coefficient of the sky (except the horizon), were made considering the contribution of each component: atmospheric aerosol, water vapour, ozone and Rayleigh scattering. It is shown that this global coefficient is mostly dependent upon aerosol extinction. In spite of the strong reduction of sky brightness photometrically observed during the totality, the results show that the sky was not dark. This is confirmed by the results obtained for the total global extinction coefficient. Additionally it is estimated that the total solar eclipse that took place also in Falcón State, Venezuela, at the beginning of the last century on 3 February 1916, was 30% darker that the 1998 eclipse, and that atmospheric aerosol played a relevant and similar role in the scattering of sunlight during the totality as it was for 1998's. Visual observations made during each event, which show that at length only one or two bright stars could be seen in the sky, support the results obtained for both eclipses.     

影响靖宇地区温带气旋的统计分析

核电站因它不排放如二氧化碳这样的温室气体,核电对降低能源部门的碳密集作出了贡献,因此愈益受到人们的重视.在对核电站地区的天气、气候环境进行分析的基础上,对影响靖宇核电站地区的温带气旋作了研究.结果表明:1949-2007年期间影响靖宇地区的温带气旋计111个;受温带气旋影响的年数有41年(约2/3).影响靖宇地区且产生强降雨的温带气旋,主要发生在6、7、8月这3个月,并且一半以上出现在7月.影响靖宇地区的温带气旋大部分是东北气旋,占总数的65%;蒙古气旋与华北气旋次之.此外,对造成严重影响的温带气旋的个例也从天气学角度进行了分析.     

A Review of Radar- and Satellite-based Observational Studies and Nowcasting Techniques on Convection Initiation

Convection often produces severe weather which causes a great loss to human lives and properties. Precisely predicting the convection initiation process is crucial but challenging in operational convection nowcasting (0~2 h forecasting). Before the radar-defined CI occurring (e.g., the first occurrence of ≥35 dBZ echoes), observations at high spatial and temporal resolutions from weather radars and geostationary meteorological satellites can reveal precursor information such as the boundary-layer convergence lines and the rapid growth of newborn cumulus clouds. These radar- and satellite-observed precursor information are helpful for evaluating the pre-CI conditions and thus nowcasting the accurate CI timing and location. This paper reviewed the current status of radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting techniques. The milestone works and the following studies in the last four decades were summarized to demonstrate how radar and satellite observations can be related to CI occurrence. The objectives and approaches of the CI research advance as the improvement in the capability of radars and were explained satellites. The research progress aids in the development of various CI nowcasting techniques. This paper introduced three well-established techniques that have been put into operational application, namely, ANC system, SATCAST algorithm, and UWCI algorithm. Some scientific issues with respect to radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting were also presented.     

Seasonal variations and mechanism for environmental control of NEE of CO_2 concerning the Potentilla fruticosa in alpine shrub meadow of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The study by the eddy covariance technique in the alpine shrub meadow of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau in 2003 and 2004 showed that the net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) exhibited noticeable diurnal and annual variations, with more distinct daily changes during the warmer seasons. The CO2 emission of the shrub ecosystem culminated in April and September while the CO2 absorption capacity reached a maximum in July and August. The absorbed carbon dioxide during the two consecutive years was 231.4 and 274.8 g CO2·m-2 respectively, yielding an average of 253.1 gCO2·m-2 per year: that accounts for a large proportion of absorbed CO2 in the region. Obviously, the diurnal carbon flux was negatively related to temperature, radiation and other atmospheric factors. Still, minute discrepancies in kurtosis and duration of carbon emission/absorption were detected between 2003 and 2004. It was found that the CO2 flux in the daytime was similarly affected by photosynthetic photon flux density in both years. Temperature appears to be the most important determinant of CO2 flux: specifically, the high temperature during the plant growing season inhibits the carbon absorption capacity. One potential explanation is that soil respiration is enhanced under such condition. Analysis of biomass revealed that the annual net carbon fixed capacity of aboveground and belowground biomass was 544.0 in 2003 and 559.4 g Cm"2 in 2004, which coincided with the NEE absorption capacity (63.1 g C·m-2 in 2003 and 74.9 g C·m-2 in 2004) in the corresponding plant growing season.     

云南干旱“常态化”的分析

近年来云南持续发生严重干旱,云南干旱是否日趋"常态化"成为社会各界关心的一个热点问题,相关报道不断见诸媒体。本文从水文的角度对云南省的历史干旱、水文要素以及趋势预测等方面进行了深入的分析。在历史依据和现代气象水文观测数据的支撑下,考察近100年来全球增暖可能导致部分地区干旱化的可能,从而认为近年来提出的云南干旱"常态化"存在科学依据;但干旱"常态化"仅能局限于近现代时期这一时间范畴,对于今后更长时期云南省干旱发展趋势,依据现有技术手段及研究成果尚难以判断把握。     

云南属都湖近百年环境演变的湖泊沉积记录与器测资料对比研究

通过对属都湖湖心钻取的短岩芯Esdr1进行放射性核素137Cs和常规的元素分析,利用137Cs建立精确的年代标尺,开展地球化学记录环境演变与器测资料的对比研究。器测资料表明,近50年来,该地区主要的气候变化特征:1958～1983年,气候偏冷湿;1983～2002年,气候逐渐暖干化,这些气候波动特征被沉积岩芯忠实记录。研究表明属都湖沉积物地球化学代用指标指示的气候演化特征与器测资料可很好的对比印证,属都湖沉积岩芯完整的记录了区域气候变化的信息     

西北地区东部季节干旱的时空变化特征分析

干旱作为我国西北地区东部影响最大的气象灾害, 可引起农业减产、水资源短缺、土地荒漠化和生态环境恶化等严重问题.在国家新一轮西部大开发战略实施之初, 在全球气候变暖背景下, 有必要对干旱发展的最新特征和演变趋势进行详细分析研究, 为加强防旱、抗旱,促进经济发展提供科学决策依据和参考.采用国家干旱标准综合干旱指数(CI指数), 利用西北地区东部74个气象代表站逐日气温、降水资料, 分析了西北地区东部不同级别干旱日数在各个季节的时空分布和变化趋势. 结果表明: 在气候变暖背景下, 西北地区东部从长期趋势看, 春、夏、秋季干旱呈加剧趋势, 冬季干旱呈减轻趋势. 21世纪以来春、夏季干旱进一步加剧, 尤其是夏季加剧更显著, 而秋、冬季干旱出现了减弱的新趋势. 在西北地区东部主降水期3-11月重-特旱加剧趋势比轻-中旱加剧显著, 南部干旱化趋势比北部更加明显. 尤其是宁夏同心地区春旱加剧非常显著, 已成为西北地区东部重-特旱最严重的地区.对于干旱发展的这一新动态, 必须引起有关部门的高度重视, 采取科学、有效手段加强防旱、抗旱.     

廊坊市地下水位下降漏斗的气象成因分析

由于人类社会生产生活过程中过度开采地下水引发了地下水降落漏斗,加之全球气候变暖,大面积干旱等极端天气气候事件频繁发生,使得水资源短缺已成为制约经济社会可持续发展的重要因素.研究气象干旱对地下水降落漏斗演化过程的影响将为提出防御地下水降落漏斗的进一步发展提供充分的科学依据.通过对廊坊市地下水漏斗发展演化过程与逐年降水的相关分析,揭示了地下水降落漏斗的气象干旱响应模式,即气象干旱促使人类过度开采地下水资源,从而进一步加剧水文干旱、地下水降落漏斗及地面沉降灾害.同时,提出了合理开采地下水、提倡中水回用、推广节水灌溉等对策.