综合气象观测系统业务运行综合评估技术研究

综合气象观测网运行监控系统是我国气象探测设备运行保障的实时业务系统.文章以装备技术保障工程理论为基础,按可靠性、维修性、保障性、业务性、经济性等多个范畴,从装备运行状态、装备性能参数、探测数据质量、通信传输、供应保障、维护维修等方面,提出了针对我国综合气象观测网中各类设备的运行、维护和保障等工作进行综合评估的技术方法,...     

利用气象卫星遥感监测沙尘暴

介绍了沙尘暴的定义及其危害,简述了内蒙古沙尘暴天气的发生情况,并对利用极轨气象卫星遥感技术监测沙尘暴的原理以及方法进行了探讨和论述。同时,对沙尘暴的遥感监测方法进行了进一步的探讨,提出了遥感监测沙尘暴的思路。     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区腋芽萌发期气象适宜度

以四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区为研究区,基于气象条件对腋芽萌发期再生稻生长发育的影响机理,采用结构方程模型探明了腋芽萌发的影响因素、影响路径及影响强度。进一步结合隶属函数和层次分析法,构建了再生稻腋芽萌发气象适宜度模型,并分析了1981—2021年研究区腋芽萌发期气象影响因素及气象适宜度的变化特征。结果表明：气温、空气湿度、降水是四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区腋芽萌发的关键影响因素,基于以上因素的气象适宜度模型能较好地评价再生稻腋芽萌发期的气象影响。1981—2021年研究区气温适宜度、空气湿度适宜度及综合气象适宜度均呈下降趋势,降水适宜度没有表现出明显的变化趋势。气温适宜度、空气湿度适宜度及综合气象适宜度总体呈“西高东低”的空间分布特征,降水适宜度则表现为“东西高、中部低”。1981—2021年研究区气温上升趋势与空气湿度下降趋势显著,导致致害高温（日平均气温≥32℃）积温和致害低湿（日平均相对湿度≤65％）日数明显增加,这是再生稻腋芽萌发期气象适宜度总体呈下降趋势的诱因。     

2023年全球重大天气气候事件

2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。     

山东省近50年海洋气象灾害特征分析

本文通过大量的文献和资料查阅,系统的统计分析了近50a山东省沿海及责任海区海雾、风暴潮、风暴海浪、海冰等几种主要海洋气象灾害的海洋、气象及分布特征和灾害情况,进一步分析了它们的变化规律和产生原因,为海洋气象业务、服务、科研提供有益的参考。     

近实时公共气象服务分析图网站发布

给出一种基于开源IDV工具构建气象产品网站发布平台的设计思路和实现方法。近实时公共气象服务分析图将使用人员定位于浏览器端县乡级气象、农技、公众群体,突出分析图的时空分级覆盖、耕作层气象服务、山地气象服务和灾害气象服务。通过内容、时间、区域以及表现形式4个方面的分解,描述了网站的设计原理。通过本体技术实现气象要素向气象知识的过渡。通过图形产品的静态和动态层分别处理,提高了二维和三维图形产品的生成速度。构建形成的气象产品发布平台已经在多个网站得到应用并得到好评。     

结合第8届国际探空仪系统比对试验探讨国产气球施放高度

根据阳江探空站高空气象探测用750g气象气球施放的实际高度的现状,结合中国大探中心组织国产GPS探空仪在阳江用国产2000g气象气球比对试验时施放的高度以及广东阳江第8届国际探空仪系统比对期间施放的实际高度,探讨雨天和高空相对湿度较大的气象条件下对国产气象气球施放高度的影响。结果显示,雨天或高空相对湿度较大时,对国产现有的气象气球施放的高度存在较大的影响。研究表明,解决了国产气象气球的球皮防雨、防潮问题,很大程度上解决了国产气象气球施放高度不稳定的难题。     

A Review of Radar- and Satellite-based Observational Studies and Nowcasting Techniques on Convection Initiation

Convection often produces severe weather which causes a great loss to human lives and properties. Precisely predicting the convection initiation process is crucial but challenging in operational convection nowcasting (0~2 h forecasting). Before the radar-defined CI occurring (e.g., the first occurrence of ≥35 dBZ echoes), observations at high spatial and temporal resolutions from weather radars and geostationary meteorological satellites can reveal precursor information such as the boundary-layer convergence lines and the rapid growth of newborn cumulus clouds. These radar- and satellite-observed precursor information are helpful for evaluating the pre-CI conditions and thus nowcasting the accurate CI timing and location. This paper reviewed the current status of radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting techniques. The milestone works and the following studies in the last four decades were summarized to demonstrate how radar and satellite observations can be related to CI occurrence. The objectives and approaches of the CI research advance as the improvement in the capability of radars and were explained satellites. The research progress aids in the development of various CI nowcasting techniques. This paper introduced three well-established techniques that have been put into operational application, namely, ANC system, SATCAST algorithm, and UWCI algorithm. Some scientific issues with respect to radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting were also presented.     

Review of China's scientific research progress in polar meteorology in the last 30 years

The Antarctic and Arctic are sensitive to global climate change; therefore, they are key regions of global climate change research. This paper, the progress in scientific investigations and research regarding the atmosphere in the polar regions over the last 30 years by Chinese scientists is summarized. Primary understanding of the relationship between the polar regions and global change, especially, the variations in time and space in the Antarctic and Arctic regions with respect to climate change is indicated. Operational weather forecasts for investigation of the polar regions have also been established. Moreover, changes in sea ice and their impact on the atmosphere of polar regions have been diagnosed and simulated. Parameterization of the atmospheric boundary layer of different underlying layers and changes in the atmospheric ozone in the polar region has also been experimented. Overall, there has been great progress in studies of the possible impact of changes in the atmospheric environment of polar regions on circulation in East Asia and the climate of China.