一次双台风影响下暴雨过程的中尺度涡旋模拟分析

本文对上海地区一次双台风环境影响的暴雨过程进行数值模拟及分析,探讨了强降水过程中大气中低层的涡旋特征及发展机理。结果表明:(1)暴雨过程处于双台风、大陆高压的共同影响下,中低层伴随有较明显的中尺度低涡发展。(2)与涡旋相关的局地垂直涡度由低层开始发展,先期涡度发展集中于850 hPa以下,之后向大气中上层发展增强,涡旋尺度强度也随之发展,最终形成在对流层下半部具有闭合式气旋性环流的深厚涡旋。(3)影响局地涡度变化的水平平流项、垂直平流项、散度制造项和倾斜项对不同时间、不同高度的涡度作用各不相同,其中散度制造项是中低层涡度的主要来源,垂直平流项的输送作用对中上层的涡度发展有重要作用,倾斜项对涡旋发展移动也有部分贡献。(4)通过敏感性试验考察了对流潜热反馈的贡献,发现潜热释放过程通过加热改变大气温压场结构,从而维持并改变局地涡度倾向的中低层辐合及对流上升运动,对涡旋的发展和移动起了重要影响。     

利用波形去噪算法的森林最大冠顶高估测研究

针对大光斑激光雷达回波信号噪声影响森林冠顶高估测精度,且回波分析法判定回波位置受限于平坦地区的问题,利用高斯低通滤波和小波去噪两种方法对GLAS波形进行去噪处理,提出了结合均方根倍差法和回波分析法来判定回波位置的有效算法。经小波去噪后信号的信噪比23.360 704,均方根误差为0.000 233 3,经均方根倍差法和回波分析法相结合来判定回波位置估测的冠顶高结果与实测结果相关性系数r值为0.864,效果均优于高斯低通滤波去噪。基于GLAS回波数据实验结果表明:小波去噪较好地实现了对回波信号的去噪处理,均方根倍差法和回波分析法相结合,实现了对坡度相对较大地区的GLAS波形的回波开始位置和地面回波位置的准确判定,对森林冠顶高的精确估算具有重要意义。     

Smart 3D数据的三维模型重建

针对Smart 3D生成的实景三维模型是一个三角网集合,并不能直接应用于数字城市建设、土地利用管理与城市规划的问题,该文提出了Smart 3D数据三维模型重建的方法:研究了基于分割过滤方法,提取高精度数字高程模型;基于参数化建模、纹理重建方法构建了建筑物三维模型。利用敦化市的倾斜影像进行了实验。实验结果表明:三维重建模型精度高、效果好、提高了自动化的程度,实现了城市建筑物模型的单体化。     

Comparison of a Manual and an Automated Tracking Method for Tibetan Plateau Vortices

Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs) are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the extended summer season(April–September).Most TPVs stay on the TP,but a small number can move off the TP to the east.TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP(e.g.,in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley).Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent(400–800 km) and the limited availability of soundings over the TP,which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs.In this study,(i) manual tracking(MT) results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with(ii) results obtained by an automated tracking(AT) algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data.Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method(i) and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method(ii).Conversely,ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs.In general,the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement,but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods,data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data.Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking,including in an operational weather forecasting context.     

鲁西北连续两次强降水过程对比分析

利用各种观测资料和NCEP/NCAR 1×1°再分析资料,对2012年7月30日夜间和31日夜间鲁西北连续两天强降雨天气进行诊断和对比分析。结果表明:强降水产生在西风槽前和副热带高压边缘的偏南暖湿气流中,西风槽稳定少动,台风在东南沿海北上,副高加强北抬,为鲁西北连续两天的强降水提供了天气尺度背景。925hPa及以下的低层,来自于渤海的偏东气流和来自于华东沿海的东南气流同时向鲁西北强降水区输送水汽,低层比湿大,CAPE和K指数较高。第1次强降水产生在偏南气流的暖区中,降水强度大,维持时间短。第2次强降水期间,低层有冷空气锲入,把暖湿气流抬升,前期为对流性降水,中后期转为稳定性降水,降水强度小,维持时间较长。850hPa及以下倒槽式切变线和中尺度低涡环流是造成强降水的中尺度影响系统,近地面层来自于渤海的东北气流与来自于东南沿海的东南暖湿气流形成中尺度涡旋,产生气旋式辐合上升,触发对流不稳定能量释放。对流云团在鲁西北形成长形的中尺度对流系统(MCS),稳定少动,有明显的列车效应和后向传播特征。强降水具有较强的日变化,夜间发展增强,白天减弱。     

2016年6月海南一次龙卷过程分析

利用19612015年陕西省70个气象观测站的逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、趋势分析及Mann Kendall等方法,分析了陕西省不同等级降水量、降水日数及降水强度的气候变化特征。结果表明：无论是降水量、降水日数,还是降水强度,均呈现出南多北少的分布特征,且随着降水级别的逐级增加,地区分布差异逐渐增大;整体上降水量和降水日数呈现出减少趋势,其中降水日数的下降趋势均非常显著,全省年均降水日数的气候倾向率达到了-3.83天·10a-1,通过了0.01的显著性检验,降水强度的增加趋势通过了0.05的显著性检验,每10 a全省年均降水强度增加0.15 mm·d-1;陕西降水量及降水日数的减少主要体现在春秋两季小雨及中雨的减少上,小雨降水强度在夏、秋两季的气候倾向率分别为0.05和0.04 mm·d-1·10a-1,其上升趋势分别通过了0.01和0.1的显著性检验,这是年均降水强度上升的主要原因;陕西年均降水量及降水日数自1984年出现了突变性下降,而降水强度的突变则出现在2004年,之后一直呈现持续的上升趋势。     

一次由列车效应引发的暴雨过程分析

利用自动站资料、探空资料、NCEP再分析资料以及雷达资料,对2016年6月26日浙西地区一次暴雨过程的列车效应特征、物理量特征以及中尺度特征进行诊断分析。结果表明:暴雨产生于中低层暖切及地面低压倒槽的背景场中。强降水时段内回波在江西地区生成并沿同一路径东移影响浙西地区,产生列车效应,同时雷达速度场的低层辐合区有利于列车效应中东移回波增强并产生强烈降水。中低层湿度增加、垂直上升速度增大以及暖式切变线的加强有利于水汽辐合抬升的加强,使得列车效应增强,有利于降水的增大。26日11时以后衢州中北部地区列车效应的产生与维持与中低层正涡度和水汽通量辐合在这个区域的持续作用密不可分。Barnes滤波显示中尺度辐合线的维持和移动与列车效应的维持和生消有较好地对应关系,同时地面加密风场中稳定的低压环流有利于列车效应回波源地的维持,实际业务中应加强对地面加密风场和低层中尺度辐合线的分析。     

恩施“6·24”暴雨中尺度系统特征分析

利用常规观测资料、自动区域站雨量、卫星TBB资料、雷达资料,对恩施州2016年6月24—25日发生的一次大范围暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明:本次强降水,具有典型的两槽一脊"单阻型"梅雨环流特征,在有利的大尺度环流背景下,在高空槽、低层低涡切变、西南急流、地面中尺度辐合线等中尺度天气系统的共同影响、相互作用下,形成了此次大范围强降水。此次暴雨空间上分布不均,局地性强,表现为明显的中尺度对流性特征,雷达回波图上降水性质表现为混合型降水,暴雨的直接影响系统是中β尺度对流系统,且中β尺度对流系统在多个中尺度对流云团合并后加强,时间尺度约为5 h。此次暴雨过程是在上干冷下暖湿强的大气层结不稳定条件下,梅雨锋、边界层辐合线和地形槽的触发作用将前期积累的能量释放产生的强对流天气,同时,副高外围西南气流将南海和西太平洋的水汽向恩施输送,为暴雨的发生提供了有利的条件。     

Potential Deformation and Its Application to the Diagnosis of Heavy Precipitation in Mesoscale Convective Systems

Many observational studies have shown that deformation, like vertical vorticity and divergence, is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation. In this paper, to involve deformation in precipitation diagnosis, a new parameter called potential deformation(PD) is derived and then applied to precipitation detection within a simulated mesoscale convective system(MCS). It is shown that PD includes both stretching deformation and shearing deformation and shares similar characteristics with deformation insofar as it does not change with the rotating coordinate. Diagnosis of the simulated MCS reveals that PD performs well in tracing the MCS' precipitation. In terms of their distributional pattern, the large-value areas of PD are similar to the precipitation in the different development stages of the MCS. A detailed analysis of the physical processes contained within the PD shows that it can reflect the three-dimensional moisture variation,vertical wind shear and wind deformation within the MCS. These structures are usually a comprehensive reflection of the characteristics of the surface cold pool, rear inflow jet, downward cold air flow and upward warm moist flow within the precipitating convective cells. For this reason, the PD shows much stronger anomalies in the precipitating atmosphere than the non-precipitating atmosphere, which implies considerable potential for its application in detecting heavy precipitation within MCSs.     

Tower-Based Greenhouse Gas Measurement Network Design——The National Institute of Standards and Technology North East Corridor Testbed

The North–East Corridor(NEC) Testbed project is the 3rd of three NIST(National Institute of Standards and Technology) greenhouse gas emissions testbeds designed to advance greenhouse gas measurements capabilities. A design approach for a dense observing network combined with atmospheric inversion methodologies is described. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model were used to derive the sensitivity of hypothetical observations to surface greenhouse gas emissions(footprints). Unlike other network design algorithms, an iterative selection algorithm, based on a k-means clustering method, was applied to minimize the similarities between the temporal response of each site and maximize sensitivity to the urban emissions contribution. Once a network was selected, a synthetic inversion Bayesian Kalman filter was used to evaluate observing system performance. We present the performances of various measurement network configurations consisting of differing numbers of towers and tower locations. Results show that an overly spatially compact network has decreased spatial coverage, as the spatial information added per site is then suboptimal as to cover the largest possible area, whilst networks dispersed too broadly lose capabilities of constraining flux uncertainties. In addition, we explore the possibility of using a very high density network of lower cost and performance sensors characterized by larger uncertainties and temporal drift. Analysis convergence is faster with a large number of observing locations, reducing the response time of the filter. Larger uncertainties in the observations implies lower values of uncertainty reduction. On the other hand, the drift is a bias in nature, which is added to the observations and,therefore, biasing the retrieved fluxes.