Impact of Doppler Radar Wind in Simulating the Intensity and Propagation of Rainbands Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using MM5-3DVAR System

Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.     

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

Transient deformation following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion at Kīlauea volcano,Hawai’i

On 30 January 1997 an intrusion on Kīlauea volcano opened a new fissure within the East Rift Zone (ERZ) at Nāpau Crater, 3 km uprift from the ongoing eruptions at Pu’u ’Ō’ō. The fissure eruption lasted 22 h and opened a 5.1 km long, nearly vertical dike 1.9 m, extending from the surface to a depth of 2.4 km (Owen et al. 2000b). During the eruption, the lava pond at Pu’u ’Ō’ō drained, and eruptions ceased there. Pu’u ’Ō’ō eventually refilled in late February and eruptions resumed there on 28 March 1997. Continuous GPS data show a large transient following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion. After lengthening 40 cm during the initial eruption, the baseline between two stations spanning the ERZ lengthened an additional 10 cm over the following 6 months. A coastal station KAEP also exhibited transient deformation, as it continued to move southward (5 cm) over the same 6-month period. The baseline between two stations spanning Kīlauea’s summit caldera contracted sharply during the eruption, but gradually recovered to slightly longer than its previous length 2 months after the intrusion. We use the extended network inversion filter (McGuire and Segall 2003) to invert continuous GPS data for volume change of a spherical pressure source under Kīlauea’s summit, opening distribution on a nearly vertical dike in the ERZ and potential slip on a decollement 9 km beneath the south flank. Following the 30 January intrusion, rift extension continued below the initial dike intrusion for the duration of the transient. Decollement slip, regardless of its assumed depth, is not required to fit the data. The modeled transient summit reinflation and rift opening patterns under Nāpau crater coincide with changes in observed behavior of Pu’u ’Ō’ō’s lava pond. Rift opening accelerated while Pu’u ’Ō’ō eruptions paused and began to decelerate after the lava pond reappeared nearly a month after the Nāpau eruption. The transient deformation is interpreted as resulting from shallow accommodation of the new dike volume.     

对重力势二阶垂直偏导数的一种新的取样方法

从目前的研究来看，二阶垂直导数（X和Y两个方向）的求解方法较简单，它采用的五个因子的数字滤波的最小二乘法来优化数据。但是在较小区域面积时（对工程和环境应用中的重力数据），重力异常很容易放大和被区域重力场掩盖，我们认为产生的缘由是表示重力场的x和y方向上的二次多项式引起的。因此，为了逼近重力水平方向的偏导可以设计一个好的滤波器来拟合在xy平面的重力场值，再得出想要的重力垂直方向偏导，文中最后对提出的方法在前人经典模型上和野外实践进行了验证。     

基于启发式图搜索的遥感影像道路半自动提取

启发式图搜索法用于线状目标识别的原理是：用图结构表示边缘点和边缘段，根据启发函数计算顶点权值，在图的路径上建立相应的代价函数，通过在图中搜索对应的最小代价的通道以找到最优路径。图搜索法是一种全局最优方法，它在受噪声影响较大时效果仍然较好。文中使用了启发式图搜索法（A*算法）实现了道路的半自动跟踪。它的基本思路是：首先利用自适应平滑滤波算子进行道路信息增强，然后对传统的道路数学模型进行了进一步的扩展，突出了对道路几何特性和辐射特性的描述，并依此构建图搜索的代价函数，实现了基于启发式图搜索法A*算法的道路半自动跟踪。经实验证明，该方法进行遥感影像的道路半自动提取效果较好。     

大气中对称不稳定机制的动力学分析及暴雨的分析与预报

用气块法从力学角度对对称不稳定机制及在对称不稳定条件下产生的环流进行分析，更全面地定义了对称不稳定及它的产生机制和中尺度环流形成的过程。对暴雨个例诊断分析表明，有些强降水区在降水前和降水过程中存在着不对称不稳定，说明对称不稳定条件下形成的环流对暴雨有引发和加强作用。在以往研究原基础上，总结出了利用常规观测资料分析对称不是否存在，及其能量大小的方法，用它来预报是否降水及降水的强度，从而提高降水预报准确率。     

华北平原深层淡水在开采条件下接受上覆咸水越流补给——以天津平原为例

分析物探测井曲线和地下水位动态发现，天津平原深层孔隙地下淡水在开采条件下接受上覆咸水的越流补给，而且咸水底界未大量向下位移。本文讨论了咸质含水组底部钙化粘土微观粘粒与水溶液的相互作用，提出了“滤盐层”的概念。     

多级汇水盆地的自动提取

利用多级汇水盆地在频率城（或波数域）中的频率差异，通过滤波方法逐级分离，并提取它们，实验证明，该方法效果较好。     

中尺度数值模式(MM5V3)在沈阳区域气象中心的试用

简单介绍了沈阳区域气象中心在微机上调试和试用中尺度数值模式MM5V3的情况，MM5V3在前、后处理上使用Fortran90编程，与MM5V2有一定差别，利用T106L19资料和常规探空报形成经、纬网格的初值，预处理场和侧边界，代入模式前处理系统中，模式运行完毕后，预报产品直接进入MICAPS、Vis5d、Grads系统，进行图形显示，在2000年汛期试用中发现，MM5V3对东北地区的强降水过程有一定的预报能力，预报评分表明，MM5V3的降水预报结果和MM5V2互有优劣，总体来看，MM5V3的预报质量略高于MM5V2。     

SINS／GPS级联组合滤波新算法

针对级联式SINS／GPS导航系统中组合滤波器的测量噪声与系统噪声的相关问题，提出了一种相关程度未知条件下的估计量最优融合算法，并由此得到了一个顾及噪声相关性的的卡尔曼滤波新算法；通过对一套SINS／GPS数据的计算，证明了新算法是成功的。