Simulation of cyclones using synthetic data

A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts by a global spectral model. Some well known vortices have been used and the generated wind and pressure profiles are compared. It is found that the Rankine vortex and Holland’s vortex show the best representation of cyclonic circulation. Hence these two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. For this purpose the FGGE level-III b data set, produced at ECM WF, UK is used. Synthetic temperature and humidity data are also introduced to make the cyclones more realistic. With the use of Holland’s vortex the system is found to move faster than with the Rankine vortex. Also, the tracks of the cyclones simulated with Rankine vortex are found to be on the left side of the observed track while that of Holland’s vortex is on the right side of the observed track. However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of diabatic initialization of the mass and velocity fields and the forecasts of both the vortices behave differently. It is suggested that proper selection of synthetic vortex, initialization scheme and resolution of the model are very important for better forecast of cyclones.     

Review of the Atmospheric Response to the Ocean Mesoscale Eddies

As one of the most important mesoscale ocean features, the mesoscale eddies are omnipresent and have significant impact on the overlying atmosphere. Based on the comprehensive review of the influence of mesoscale eddies on the atmospheric boundary layer and the local circulation, the corresponding physical mechanisms and their impacts on weather systems were presented systematically. ①Eddy-induced SST anomalies may modify the surface wind speed, horizontal divergence, cloud and precipitation through turbulence heat flux anomalies. Meanwhile, additional secondary circulations arise over the eddies. What is more, there are obvious regional and seasonal differences for atmospheric responses. ② Studies in the South China Sea, the Kuroshio Extension region and the Southern Ocean indicate that atmospheric responses to mesoscale eddies can be explained by the changes of sea level pressure or the vertical momentum transport. These two mechanisms can be distinguished by the phase relationship between the atmospheric anomaly center and the eddy core. Diagnosis on the inner dynamical processes may draw better conclusions. ③The energy conversions are affected by mesoscale eddies, which may affect storm tracks and jet streams, and finally result in distant influences on weather patterns. Moreover, sea temperature anomalies from sea surface to the thermocline associated with mesoscale eddies have significant impacts on the intensification and the maintenance of tropical cyclones.     

Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations

This paper preliminarily investigates the application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs)–based ensemble forecast technique in MM5(Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model). The results show that the ensemble forecast members generated by the orthogonal CNOPs present large spreads but tend to be located on the two sides of real tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and have good agreements between ensemble spreads and ensemble-mean forecast errors for TC tracks. Subsequently, these members reflect more reasonable forecast uncertainties and enhance the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts to obtain higher skill for TC tracks than the orthogonal SVs(singular vectors)–, BVs(bred vectors)– and RPs(random perturbations)–based ones. The results indicate that orthogonal CNOPs of smaller magnitudes should be adopted to construct the initial ensemble perturbations for short lead–time forecasts, but those of larger magnitudes should be used for longer lead–time forecasts due to the effects of nonlinearities. The performance of the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts is case-dependent,which encourages evaluating statistically the forecast skill with more TC cases. Finally, the results show that the ensemble forecasts with only initial perturbations in this work do not increase the forecast skill of TC intensity, which may be related with both the coarse model horizontal resolution and the model error.     

2019年6月大气环流和天气分析

2019年6月大气环流主要特征是：北半球高纬度地区极涡呈单极分布且偏强,亚洲中高纬为“两槽一脊”的环流形势,西太平洋副热带高压以偏南为主,强度略偏强。全国平均气温为20.6℃,较常年同期（20.0℃）偏高0.6℃,全国平均降水量为99.8 mm,基本与常年同期（99.3 mm）持平。月内,我国中东部地区出现4次大范围强降水天气过程,南方遭受严重暴雨洪涝灾害;同时,华北、黄淮和云南等地少雨高温,气象干旱持续;华北、黄淮出现阶段性高温;多省(区)遭受风雹袭击,部分地区受灾较重。     

热带气旋登陆地段与湛江市风雨的相关统计分析

湛江市每年5～11月份都可受到热带气旋的影响,每个热带气旋造成风力、降水的大小,与热带气旋的登陆地段、登陆时的强度及登陆后的移动路径密切相关.本文利用50年来在广东台山至海南省南部沿海地区登陆或影响该地区的热带气旋资料与湛江市的风雨关系进行统计分析,从中找出相关规律,为热带气旋风雨预报提供参考.     

水汽输送的算法精度与模式暴雨预报能力的对比分析

利用中尺度模式ＭＭ４，研究了中尺度模式的暴雨模拟对于不同不汽输送方案的敏感性。采用５种平流差分格式来计算水汽的水平输送，用该模式对３次暴雨过程作了数值试验。并把不同方案的降水模拟结果与实况进行了对比。结果表明，中尺度模式的暴雨模拟对水汽输送方案十分敏感，正定高精度的Ｐｒａｔｈｅｒ格式的模拟结果最接近实况。     

斜压涡旋中的通风气流与热带气旋移动的关系

应用准地转斜压模式数值模拟了热带气旋的移动。将热带气旋的流场分解为轴对称分量和非对称分量,研究非对称流场中的通风气流矢量与热带气旋移动矢量的关系。数值试验结果表明:(1)在热带气旋的非对称流场中,不但有大尺度β涡旋,而且还有小尺度涡旋。(2)小尺度涡旋与大尺度β涡旋之间的相互作用导致热带气旋移向的摆动和移速的振荡。(3)应用Fiorino和Elsberry的方法计算的通风气流矢量与热带气旋移动矢量有很大偏差。(4)应用改进的方法计算的通风气流矢量与热带气旋移动矢量相关密切。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF MESOSCALE FLOOD-MAKING TORRENTIAL RAIN SYSTEM SIMULATED BY HIGH RESOLUTION LIMITED AREA MODEL—NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A HEAVY RAIN PROCESS DURING MEIYU SEASON IN 1991

An experimental work on the transplant of high resolution limited area model(HIRLAM) isfirstly introduced into China.For the implementation,first of all is to adjust a new geographicalcoordination and to remove the instability caused by the Tibetan Plateau,the roof of the world.Then,we have applied this model to simulate a flood-making torrential rain process which occurredin the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley in July 1991.That revealed the formation,development andmovement of a mesoseale heavy rain system which had made a disastrous flood event in the middleand lower reaches of Changjiang River Valley.The result encourages us to use the HIRLAM for the researches on the Meiyu belt,the salientfeature of precipitation of East Asia,and the numerical prediction of heavy rains in China.     

2020年冬季海洋天气评述

2020年冬季（2020年12月－2021年2月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,中高纬环流呈 3 波型分布,西风带槽脊较常年明显偏强。位势高度距平场显示,东亚中纬度地区处于负距平区,东亚大槽较常年同期显著偏强,冷空气活动频繁、强度偏强。我国近海出现了 11 次 8 级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程 7 次,冷空气和入海气旋共同影响的大风过程 2 次,冷空气和台风共同影响的大风天气过程以及温带气旋大风过程各 1 次。我国近海出现大范围的海雾过程 4 次,海雾区域主要出现在渤海、渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海域、琼州海峡、雷州半岛沿岸海域及北部湾,出雾时段多集中于夜间至早晨。西北太平洋和南海共生成 2 个热带气旋;全球其他海域共生成热带气旋 16 个。我国近海出现 2 m以上大浪过程的天数有 54 d,约占冬季总日数的 60%。冬季,我国近海海域呈明显降温过程,北部海域的降温幅度明显大于南部海域,海面温度从北到南的温差在冬季由 2020 年 12 月的 23 ℃加大到 2021 年 2 月的 27 ℃。     

热带气旋集合预报中的不确定性研究

综合考虑了数值天气预报过程中的两种不确定性：初值和模式的不确定性,建立了一个拥有20个成员的中尺度集合预报系统来模拟1997年热带气旋Danny的路径和对流系统.发现模拟气旋路径的集合平均误差在12 h以后比所有成员的误差都小.通过考察模拟结果对各种不确定性的敏感性,发现两种不确定性在模拟中都很重要,但不同的不确定性对模拟结果的贡献是不同的.初值的不确定性主要影响模式积分的前12 h,模式的不确定性在整个积分过程中始终存在.不确定性最敏感的区域主要分布在气旋附近的强天气区.