Effect of Horizontal Nonuniformity of Diabatic Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure

1. IntroductionMuch attention has been paid to the role playedby diabatic heating in the genesis and intensificationof tropical cyclone (TC). Based on a two-dimensionalprimitive equation model, Li (1984) proposed that theevolution of TC should be different if the maximumheating appears at different height. Yang et al. (1995)found that abrupt intensification of TC at the mid-latitudes is closely related to the vertical structure ofconvective heating. May and Holland (1998) suggestedthat the…     

A Study on the Mesoscale Convective Systems during the Summer Monsoon Onset over the South China Sea in 1998Part I: Analysis of Large-Scale Fields for Occurrence and Development of the Mesoscale Convective Systems

1. Introduction China is located in the East Asian monsoon re- gion. Every year's weather and climate in this region is deeply affected by the monsoon activities. Es- pecially, during flooding season (May to September), the summer monsoon controls large-scale precipitation patterns, the movement of seasonal rain belt and oc- currence of drought/flood disasters. The Asian mon- soon can be divided into two systems (Tao and Chen, 1987). As a major component and its unique location, the South …     

一类奇异孤波解及其在高原低涡结构分析中的应用

文中利用相平面分析法 ,由非绝热大气运动方程组导出了与非线性重力内波有关的 Kd V方程 ,然后用直接积分法得到两类有意义的孤立波解 ,重点分析了一类具有间断点的奇异孤立波解的特征 ,初步建立了此波解与一类青藏高原暖性低涡的联系 ,讨论了高原加热和层结稳定度对高原低涡生成和移动的影响 ,并且从理论上论证了高原低涡具有与热带气旋类低涡( Tropical cyclone- like vortices)类似的涡眼和暖心结构     

THE BEIJING AREA MESOSCALE NWP SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION

Significant progress has been made on the development of mesoscale numerical weather prediction(NWP)system for Beijing area,as a joint project of the National Meteorological Center(NMC)andthe Beijing Meteorological Bureau(BMB).On the basis of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model PSU/NCAR MM5,a mesoscale NWP system for Beijing area(BJ-MM5V.1)has been developed on thecomputer IBM/SP2 MPP with 24 nodes at NMC.As a two-way nested grid model two grids arechosen with 45 and 15km grid length respectively,and 23 levels in the vertical.It takes 2 hours and20 minutes to make a 36h forecast,which satisfies the time requirement for the operational use.Inaddition to the routine data received from GTS at NMC,the enhanced observations over Beijingregion are used for the objective analyses.This system was put into semi-operational use during thesummer of 1997 to test its performance.The forecast products,hourly rainfalls and all of themeteorological elements needed,are provided to the forecasters at BMB for use.It is identified fromthe test results that the system is robust and has pretty good ability to forecast the spatial andtemporal distribution of the precipitation for the local heavy rainfalls.     

孟加拉湾低压造成云南强降水的中尺度分析

通过对１９８１～１９９１年春秋两季孟加接湾低压影响云南强降水的１６个个例的ＴＢＢ资料进行等值线分析及云北度、云降水效率的计算和对中－α尺度对流进行了尺度及结构分析、对云顶温度、温度梯度、地理区域与降水关系的分析,给出了一些孟加拉湾低压影响云南并造成强降水时的云图特征量与降水的相互关系。     

长江上游区域性暴雨发生前的中尺度特征

通过对长江上游 1 2次区域性暴雨发生前数小时至十余小时的探测资料进行合成分析 ,揭示了该区域暴雨天气发生前的流场、能量场、水汽场和动力场的中尺度特征。对提高该区域暴雨天气预报质量和长江流域防洪具有积极意义。     

OLR场对福建热带气旋频数影响的初步研究

根据１９７４～１９９７年卫星观测的ＯＤＲ（射出长波辐射）资料计算ＯＬＲ的特征量,用其表征ＩＴＣＺ和副热带高压的位置和强度,分析影响福建热带气旋（ＴＣ）年频数与ＩＴＣＺ和副热带高压的关系,结果表明,ＴＣ异常偏少（多）年,ＩＴＣＺ位置偏南（北）,强度偏弱（强）,年太平洋上的ＯＬＲ距平场配置相反,即ＴＣ异常偏少（多）年,西太平洋热带地区ＯＬＲ为正距平,而赤道中东太平洋为负（正）距平区。     

登陆台风引发的暴雨过程之诊断研究

对9406（Tim）台风登陆北上并与西风带槽相互作用,引发我国东部大暴雨的过程进行了诊断研究,并与北美的个例进行了对比。发现Tim与北美的Hazel、Agnes、Camile飓风虽同属于低纬度系统北移被中纬度西风槽所“捕获”,但上述北美飓风均转变为锋面气旋,发展过程基本上与挪威学派经典的A类气旋及Petterssen定义的B类气旋相似,而Tim不属于上述两类情况。对涡度方程的诊断表明,此过程在低层除平流项外,散度项也比垂直输送项和扭转项大一个量级。而高空散度项、垂直输送项和扭转项同量级,此时扭转项的贡献也不可忽视。对水汽来源的诊断表明,对华北和东北的降水而言,尽管孟加拉湾有丰沛的水汽输送至东亚,但是南海和西太平洋的水汽输送仍有重要贡献。     

南海北部热带气旋移动路径突然右折的预报研究

南海北部北邻华南沿海,当热带气旋以西或西北路径移至南海北部时突然右折,将很快登陆或严重影响华南地区,此时,如预报稍有失误,就会使整个防台减灾布置工作非常被动,甚至带来生命财产的巨大损失。本文利用８５－９０６－０５－０３攻关资料,对此类热带气旋移动路径突然右折的天气学原因进行研究,结果发现：（１）移向突变前４８～７２小时,在距热带气旋８－１０伟距的西北方位高层（２００ｈＰａ）出现大范围的西到西南气流     

热带气旋路径动力释用预报的集合预报方案

考虑到热带气旋中心定位的不确定以及热带气旋（以下简称ＴＣ）路径动力释用预报对ＴＣ中心位置初值的敏感性,本文以ＴＣ路径动力释用预报方案为基础,应用集合预报原理构造了具有５０个成员的集合预报试验方案,经１９９７和１９９８年１５个ＴＣ的１１８次试验对比,结果表明,５０个成员的集合预报方案２的改进效果较好,其平均距离误差较业务预报的平均距离误差有较显著的减小。集合预报原理应用于ＴＣ路径动力释用预报的可行性