鄂西南山区一次罕见的秋季暴雨转暴雪天气成因分析

利用常规的地面观测资料、micaps卫星资料以及NCEP再分析资料,对2016年11月7到9日发生在湖北西南山区一次大范围暴雨转暴雪灾害天气的成因进行了分析。结果表明：此次极端雨雪灾害天气,是东移南下强冷空气与西南强暖湿气流共同作用的结果。低空急流的形成与维持,南支槽前正涡度的加强,以及中层正好处于冷暖气流交汇区,这种高层辐散、低层辐合的有利配置,是7到8日产生大范围大雨,局部暴雨的主要天气背景。8日夜间到9日的暴雪产生,除中层西南暖湿气流加强对降雪增幅的贡献外,还主要受东、西两路冷空气汇合加强共同影响;动力锋生产生的正、反两支锋面次级环流是造成降雪最直接的中尺度系统;此次雨雪持续期间,水汽充沛,并伴有强的水汽辐合上升运动,在强降雪影响期间,影响区上空存在NE-SW带状动力结构,这种锋面斜压性特征,加强了暖湿气流沿冷空气垫的爬升;针对秋季雨雪转换的温度层结特点,重点关注中层逆温和近地层气温变化。综合相关文献及本次研究结果,针对湖北地区降雪,850 hPa在0℃或以下,地面气温在2℃或以下,可作为雨转雪或雨夹雪的温度指标。中层逆温不是降雪必备条件,但对于产生强降雪需要适宜的中层逆温,本次降雪逆温出现在-1℃附近,该指标也可作为秋季降雪的参考指标。     

南海反气旋涡旋温度细结构特征分析

基于水下滑翔机观测资料,对南海北部一个反气旋涡旋的温度细结构进行了特征分析.温度细结构强度由温度的脉动值确定,并随着尺度的增加呈指数衰减.在垂直方向上,细结构强度随着深度的加深而减弱,细结构特征在海洋表层(0～100m)和表层以下(＞100 m)存在显著区别.表层内,垂向混合和水平混合对细结构强度均有贡献,细结构强度大...     

一次东风波暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规气象资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,结合自动站加密资料对2009年9月29日20:00至10月1日20:00发生在浙江东部沿海的一次东风波暴雨过程进行了分析.结果发现:0916号台风"凯萨娜"外围环流为此次东风波的形成提供了扰动作用,副热带高压的加强使得低层形成了明显的东南急流,为暴雨或强降水的发生提供了...     

南极绕极流区中尺度涡动动能年际变化和转换机制

采用多种资料研究南大洋南极绕极流(Antarctic Circumpolar Current,ACC)区中尺度涡的年际变化规律及机制.通过分析网格化融合卫星海洋资料AVISO(Archiving,Validation and Interpretation of Satellites Oceanographic DATA...     

Delayed baroclinic response of the Antarctic circumpolar current to surface wind stress

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) responds to the surface windstress via two processes, i.e., the instant barotropic process and the delayed baroclinic process. This study focuses on the baroclinic instability mechanism in ACC, which was less reported in the literatures. Results show that the strengthening of surface zonal windstress causes the enhanced tilting of the isopycnal surface, leading to more intense baroclinic instability. Simultaneously, the mesoscale eddies resulting from the baro- clinic instability facilitate the transformation of mean potential energy to eddy energy, which causes the remarkable decrease of the ACC volume transport with the 2-year lag time. This delayed negative cor- relation between the ACC transport and the zonal windstress may account for the steadiness of the ACC transport during last two decades.     

中尺度数值模式MM5V2评介

由于中尺度数值模式ＭＭ５Ｖ２本身的进步和目前能提供给中尺度数值模式的资料越来越多,使中尺度数值模式系统在灾害天气的预报方面成为一个重要的手段。从ＭＭ５Ｖ２的两大部分,模式初始化和预报模式出发,全面分析和总结中尺度数值模式的特点,并对中尺度数值模式未来发展做一些有益的探讨。     

Site effects at Euroseistest—I. Determination of the valley structure and confrontation of observations with 1D analysis

This paper describes the process of construction of the 2D model of Volvi's geological structure and results of empirical and theoretical approaches to the evaluation of site response at Euroseistest. The construction of the 2D model is based on a re-interpretation of the available geophysical and geotechnical data in an effort to improve the definition of the subsoil structure at Euroseistest in terms of the most important parameters needed to model site response. The results of this re-interpretation are compared with a previous published 2D model of the same alluvial valley. Different analysis of the measurements and different criteria in the synthesis of data have led to a different model, even if both studies had access to the same field measurements. This underscores the fact that a model results of an interpretation and is not uniquely determined by the data, no matter how detailed they are. The well known subsoil structure opened the possibility to correlate the geometry and the dynamic properties of the 2D model with the results of site response determined from a detailed analysis of two events in frequency and time domains and 1D numerical modeling. The study of site response shows the important effect of the lateral variations on the ground motion and suggests that the contribution of locally generated surface waves to the resonant peak may be important. In the case of Volvi's graben, the limitations of the 1D approximation to simulate ground motion under complex soil conditions in both frequency and time domains are also shown. This paper lays the ground for a companion article dealing with 2D site effects in this basin.     

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method

A Lagrangian technique is developed and applied to calculate stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone. This exchange is computed from the potential vorticity or PV along trajectories, calculated from ECMWF circulation data. Special emphasis is put on the statistical significance of the results. The computed field of the cross-tropopause flux is dominated by elongated patterns of statistically significant large downward and small upward fluxes. The downward fluxes mainly occur in the lower part of the considered tropopause folds. The upward fluxes are found near the entrance of the folds, in the tropopause ridges. The ratio between the area averaged downward and upward cross-tropopause fluxes increases with increasing strength of the cyclone. Since the largest fluxes are shown to occur in the regions with the largest wind shear, where PV-mixing is thought to cause large cross-tropopause fluxes, the results are expected to be reliable, at least in a qualitative sense. The position of a tropopause fold along the northwest coast of Africa is confirmed by total ozone observations. The results indicate that the applied Lagrangian technique is an appropriate tool for diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere exchange.     

不均匀地表产生的中尺度通量的数值试验

采用北京大学三维的复杂地形中尺度模式,结合陆面过程模式(SiB),模拟了草原和沙漠并存的下垫面的边界层大气运动.利用SiB模式计算了地表辐射、感热、潜热通量,并且预报地表温度.中尺度模式则模拟了沙漠地区受热抬升,形成的辐合运动,垂直速度的分布,不同高度上水平流场的变化以及中尺度动量和热量通量,把中尺度通量跟湍流通量进行了比较,以确定这种中尺度运动在GCM模式的参数化过程中的重要性.试验表明中尺度通量尤其是热量通量要比湍流通量大很多.     

三河-涞水-灵寿新生地震构造带

通过对地震、 地质和地球物理等资料的分析, 发现华北平原西北部于三河、 涞水、 灵寿一线存在一条地震构造带。 该地震构造带在华北地区公元1000年以来的第三地震活跃期内地震活动最为强烈, 记有8级地震1次, 6级多地震3次和数次5级左右的地震。 这条地震构造带斜穿渤海湾盆地内早第三纪形成的大兴隆起和冀中、 北京等坳陷, 是一条晚第三纪以来新发育的构造带。 此带的发现使华北平原的地震构造格局更加完善。