有限区域卫星云图资料变分分析的试验研究

资料分析在数值预报中的重要性受到越来越多的关注，星目前常规探测网的时空局限性，利用分辨率较高的非常规资料势在必行。该文利用一个有限区域中尺度模式ＭＭ４，采用变分分析技术对有限区域的常规探空资料和非常规云图资料进行变分分析和数值模拟。     

梅雨锋生次级环流对暴雨的作用

本文采用了MM4中尺度数值模式对1991年7月5日08时至6日20时发生在江淮流域的梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了模拟。在模拟较理想的基础上，利用模式输出的高分辨率的动力协调资料，就暴雨过程中锋生次级环流各强迫项对暴雨的作用进行了诊断研究。结果表明：锋生次级环流对暴雨形成具有重要的作用，但在暴雨过程不同时期各项的作用差异很大。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF MESOSCALE FLOOD-MAKING TORRENTIAL RAIN SYSTEM SIMULATED BY HIGH RESOLUTION LIMITED AREA MODEL—NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A HEAVY RAIN PROCESS DURING MEIYU SEASON IN 1991*

An experimental work on the transplant of high resolution limited area model(HIRLAM) isfirstly introduced into China.For the implementation,first of all is to adjust a new geographicalcoordination and to remove the instability caused by the Tibetan Plateau,the roof of the world.Then,we have applied this model to simulate a flood-making torrential rain process which occurredin the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley in July 1991.That revealed the formation,development andmovement of a mesoseale heavy rain system which had made a disastrous flood event in the middleand lower reaches of Changjiang River Valley.The result encourages us to use the HIRLAM for the researches on the Meiyu belt,the salientfeature of precipitation of East Asia,and the numerical prediction of heavy rains in China.     

强对流天气发生前期地面风场特征

根据对华东地区9次强对流天气的地面风场分析发现,强对流的发生发展与锋前暖区的中尺度辐合线有密切关系,与地面中尺度辐合线相伴的扰动辐合值为-0.8×10~(-4)·s~(-1)左右.当有移动的天气系统与其相遇时,交点附近扰动辐合值迅速增大,促使对流迅猛发展且移速加快.辐合线的形成与大尺度背景和特定地形有关.移动的中尺度辐合线与变压风有关而静正辐合线常与露点锋相伴.     

On the Development of Meso-Scale Heavy Rain Parcels in China

Heavy rains occur in China frequently, which often bring us floods and serious disasters in the summer half-year. The meso-scale heavy rain parcels (MHRP) in the mid-latitude are usually developed in following cases:I.By the approaching, meeting and / or overlapping of different weather systems, when two or more different rainfall systems are getting to conjugate, some MHRPs could be developed, such as: 1) a new cold/warm front or squall line approaches an old front or squall, even when the old one is somewhat decrepit; 2) at the places where two or more synoptic systems with different characteristics are meeting together, such as the meeting of tropical cyclone with the cold airs coming from the mid- and / or high-latitudes, or the low latitude vortex meeting with the westerly trough; 3) at the intersections of some different weather systems, such as the intersection of drylines, squall lines or fronts moving from different directions; and 4) by the overlapping of rainfall parcels produced continuously     

青藏高原地面热力异常对夏季江淮流域持续暴雨形成作用的数值试验

本文采用OSU-AGCM大气环流模式，对青藏高原下垫面热力异常与夏季江淮流域暴雨形成的关系进行了数值试验。模拟结果表明，青藏高原下垫面热力状况的异常对东亚环流形势及云量分布异常的影响是形成1991年夏季江淮流域持续性降水的重要原因之一。青藏高原异常热力强迫还可以引起大范围云量的异常分布和云量异常区类似于二维Rossby波列没大圆路径传播的特征。     

中尺度数值模式中湿过程参数化的敏感性试验

本文利用一个三维中尺度模式，分别采用两种不同的湿过程处理方案ＦＰＡ和ＮＣＡ模拟同一个洋面冷锋个例，以考察模拟结果对湿过程参数化方案的敏感性。两种方案的区别在于前一种使用了次网格湿对流参数化而后者没有。通过比较分别使用ＦＰＡ和ＮＣＡ方案所进行的模拟ＦＰＳ和ＮＣＳ，发现冷锋结构在两者间出现较大差异。从８５０ hPa等压面|Δθe|等值线图所显示的结构看，ＮＣＳ中冷锋呈现为一长一短两条锋带，而ＦＰＳ中冷锋仅呈现为一条锋带。在相应的冷锋横向垂直剖面中，ＮＣＳ中存在两个相邻的锋面垂直环流，而ＦＰＳ中只有一个。另外，ＮＣＳ中对流不稳定的冷锋区出现垂直运动过分发展的现象，而ＦＰＳ中不存在这个问题。通过与卫星云图比较，我们注意到，ＮＣＳ中尽管出现了垂直运动过分发展的现象，但相对于ＦＰＳ而言，其模拟的冷锋结构与实际较为接近，成功地模拟出云图上显示的双冷锋结构。ＮＣＳ中垂直运动过分发展的一个重要原因是模式中采用的静力平衡近似。ＦＰＳ中次网格对流参数化方案的使用，通过减少甚至消除对流不稳定度，一方面使垂直运动的过分发展倾向受到约束，另一方面也可能使在对流不稳定层结下的锋区环境中本应出现的中尺度结构失去了形成的机会。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MESOSCALE STRUCTURES OF TYPHOON AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS USING MM5*

The track,landfall,dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical mesoscale structures and their evolution of typhoon HERB 1996 in 36 h from 0000 UTC 31 July to 1200 UTC 1 August 1996 were simulated by using the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5.This period covered the process of typhoon HERB landfall at Taiwan and Fujian Provinces.Results show that the model successfully simulated the landfall process of typhoon HERB,revealed the most important characteristics of the mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical structure during its landfall.The simulated typhoon track was close to the observation.The center of cyclonic circulation simulated at 0000 UTC on 1 August 1996 (24 h integration) was located in shore near Fuqing,Fujian Province at which the typhoon was reported to landfall two hours later.It shows that strong upward motion formed by low level convergence existed in the eye-wall and subsidence at the eye.The wind field shows clear asymmetrical structure near the typhoon center.The cloud and rainband was screw-typed distributed around typhoon center,and consisted of meso-β scale rain cores.During the period of typhoon HERB staying near and passing over Taiwan,the lower cloud was developed in the eye region so that the previous clear typhoon eye on the satellite pictures became fuzzy.Observation shows that the typhoon center was "warm",but the model simulations with higher space resolution show that in the mid-troposphere the region of eye-wall with stronger upward motion and more cloud-and rain-water was warmer than the eye.During the period of typhoon passing over Taiwan and its following landfall at Fujian,the track of model typhoon deviated about 30 km northward (i.e.,rightward) because of the orographic effects of Taiwan Island,but the strength of the typhoon was not affected remarkably.The amount of rainfall on Taiwan in the 36 h simulations was enhanced more than six times by the orographic lifting of Taiwan Mountain.     

Large-sample hydrology: recent progress,guidelines for new datasets and grand challenges

ABSTRACT

Large-sample hydrology (LSH) relies on data from large sets (tens to thousands) of catchments to go beyond individual case studies and derive robust conclusions on hydrological processes and models. Numerous LSH datasets have recently been released, covering a wide range of regions and relying on increasingly diverse data sources to characterize catchment behaviour. These datasets offer novel opportunities, yet they are also limited by their lack of comparability, uncertainty estimates and characterization of human impacts. This article (i) underscores the key role of LSH datasets in hydrological studies, (ii) provides a review of currently available LSH datasets, (iii) highlights current limitations of LSH datasets and (iv) proposes guidelines and coordinated actions to overcome these limitations. These guidelines and actions aim to standardize and automatize the creation of LSH datasets worldwide, and to enhance the reproducibility and comparability of hydrological studies.     

基于年际增量法的华西秋雨预测模型建立及检验

利用1962—2018年华西地区301个气象台站秋季降水量资料和国家气候中心整理的130项气候系统指数，采用年际增量法建立了华西秋雨预测模型。首先通过相关分析挑选了4个与华西秋雨年际增量前3主模态密切相关的影响因子，进而采用多元线性回归方法进行建模，拟合时段和后报时段分别选为1962—1991年和1992—2018年。华西秋雨年际增量前3主模态累积值的预测模型通过了α=0.01的显著性水平检验，表明该模型具有较高的拟合预测能力。然后用相同的预测因子分别建立华西地区301个气象站点的华西秋雨年际增量预测模型，大部分模型都通过了显著性检验。用PS评分指标对预测效果进行检验，结果显示后报期年平均PS评分达74.5分。从空间分布来看后报期大部分站点的PS评分都超过60分，其中四川盆地南部、贵州东部和湖南西部等地超过80分。与华西各省和国家气候中心发布的近6年秋季降水预测PS评分进行比较，发现模型后报结果有显著优势。总体来看，用年际增量法建立的华西秋雨预测模型具有较高的预测技巧和实际应用价值。