水库诱发地震预测方法研究

利用模糊聚类分析和灰色聚类分析提出了预测水库诱发地震上限震级的方法，并以新丰江水库地震为例进行了讨论。研究表明，预测的上限震级与实际发震情况相符     

强对流天气发生前期地面风场特征

根据对华东地区9次强对流天气的地面风场分析发现,强对流的发生发展与锋前暖区的中尺度辐合线有密切关系,与地面中尺度辐合线相伴的扰动辐合值为-0.8×10~(-4)·s~(-1)左右.当有移动的天气系统与其相遇时,交点附近扰动辐合值迅速增大,促使对流迅猛发展且移速加快.辐合线的形成与大尺度背景和特定地形有关.移动的中尺度辐合线与变压风有关而静正辐合线常与露点锋相伴.     

运城震群的宏观异常

分析了1986年运城震群活动前的宏观异常现象,得出异常现象在时间空间分布上有定规律,与震级、震中分布、地震烈度、地质构造等有一定关系的认识。     

辽东湾丛式钻井陀螺侧钻及导向钻井防碰技术

本文介绍渤海辽东湾实验区AI平台丛式定向井最后钻完的3口侧钻绕障井。在有邻井和本井套管磁干扰情况下,特别是与邻井间距最小仅为0.6m,采用陀螺定向侧钻以及导向钻井技术相结合,安全顺利的钻完了这3口井。总结和介绍了侧钻、防碰的工艺特声,以及安全措施。研究和分析了使用陀螺定向侧钻,钻速与造斜率,井眼轨迹合理控制等问题。     

青藏高原地面热力异常对夏季江淮流域持续暴雨形成作用的数值试验

本文采用OSU-AGCM大气环流模式，对青藏高原下垫面热力异常与夏季江淮流域暴雨形成的关系进行了数值试验。模拟结果表明，青藏高原下垫面热力状况的异常对东亚环流形势及云量分布异常的影响是形成1991年夏季江淮流域持续性降水的重要原因之一。青藏高原异常热力强迫还可以引起大范围云量的异常分布和云量异常区类似于二维Rossby波列没大圆路径传播的特征。     

能源基地晋陕蒙接壤地区地质环境质量定量研究

本文基于地质环境是由诸多因素有机组合而成,其质量也是各因素质量的复杂组合,是一种模糊现象,难以精确评价,但又存在明显差异的认识,采用模糊数学理论,即以环境地质亚区为单元,考虑多因素的综合影响。采用数量化的动态聚类法,对晋陕蒙接壤地区地质环境质量进行了评价:包括自然条件下地质环境质量评价和煤炭、水资源开发后地质环境质量的相对变化评价。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MESOSCALE STRUCTURES OF TYPHOON AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS USING MM5*

The track,landfall,dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical mesoscale structures and their evolution of typhoon HERB 1996 in 36 h from 0000 UTC 31 July to 1200 UTC 1 August 1996 were simulated by using the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5.This period covered the process of typhoon HERB landfall at Taiwan and Fujian Provinces.Results show that the model successfully simulated the landfall process of typhoon HERB,revealed the most important characteristics of the mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical structure during its landfall.The simulated typhoon track was close to the observation.The center of cyclonic circulation simulated at 0000 UTC on 1 August 1996 (24 h integration) was located in shore near Fuqing,Fujian Province at which the typhoon was reported to landfall two hours later.It shows that strong upward motion formed by low level convergence existed in the eye-wall and subsidence at the eye.The wind field shows clear asymmetrical structure near the typhoon center.The cloud and rainband was screw-typed distributed around typhoon center,and consisted of meso-β scale rain cores.During the period of typhoon HERB staying near and passing over Taiwan,the lower cloud was developed in the eye region so that the previous clear typhoon eye on the satellite pictures became fuzzy.Observation shows that the typhoon center was "warm",but the model simulations with higher space resolution show that in the mid-troposphere the region of eye-wall with stronger upward motion and more cloud-and rain-water was warmer than the eye.During the period of typhoon passing over Taiwan and its following landfall at Fujian,the track of model typhoon deviated about 30 km northward (i.e.,rightward) because of the orographic effects of Taiwan Island,but the strength of the typhoon was not affected remarkably.The amount of rainfall on Taiwan in the 36 h simulations was enhanced more than six times by the orographic lifting of Taiwan Mountain.     

Large-sample hydrology: recent progress,guidelines for new datasets and grand challenges

ABSTRACT

Large-sample hydrology (LSH) relies on data from large sets (tens to thousands) of catchments to go beyond individual case studies and derive robust conclusions on hydrological processes and models. Numerous LSH datasets have recently been released, covering a wide range of regions and relying on increasingly diverse data sources to characterize catchment behaviour. These datasets offer novel opportunities, yet they are also limited by their lack of comparability, uncertainty estimates and characterization of human impacts. This article (i) underscores the key role of LSH datasets in hydrological studies, (ii) provides a review of currently available LSH datasets, (iii) highlights current limitations of LSH datasets and (iv) proposes guidelines and coordinated actions to overcome these limitations. These guidelines and actions aim to standardize and automatize the creation of LSH datasets worldwide, and to enhance the reproducibility and comparability of hydrological studies.     

基于地基微波辐射计资料对成都双流机场两次雷雨过程的分析

利用地基微波辐射计资料,比较了2017年7月成都双流机场的两次雷雨过程,根据天气形势分为"两高切变"和"东高西低"2类,在此基础上分析微波辐射计要素变化特征,结果表明:在垂直方向0～10 km,以相对湿度达到80%来区分干区和湿区,则两次过程前3 h,相对湿度在垂直方向均呈现"上下干、中间湿"三层结构,并早于近地层前2 h达到饱和状态;过程期间相对湿度呈现"上干、下湿"两层结构;过程结束后湿层抬高,低层变干。两次过程水汽含量充沛,保持在70 kg/m~2以上,峰值超过85 kg/m~2。每一次中阵雨发生后水汽含量都会短暂回落,但仍高于过程前的数值,不足2 h后再次发生中阵雨。由0℃线高度变化可知,降水过程中,暖区(温度≥0℃)内相对湿度≥90%;云中液态水含量主要分布于6 km以下,温度在0℃以上的液态水占比很高,故两次过程以暖云降水为主。雷雨前1 h左右有"低层气温上升,0℃层抬升,K指数、CAPE指数也明显增大"的典型特征。降水发生在相对湿度、水汽总含量、云中液态水含量和稳定度指数快速增长的波峰中。