MORALITY,SPACE, AND THE POWER OF WIND‐ENERGY LANDSCAPES

ABSTRACT. Most of us have not known—or cared—where our electricity comes from. Our attitude is changing, however, as we turn toward wind energy, now the fastest‐growing renewable energy resource in the world. Because we cannot extract and transport the raw energy of the wind, reaping its many environmental benefits requires that we cope with the landscape presence of its development wherever it occurs. Sometimes this interferes with the value of open space, and sometimes it may be close to subdivisions. It is the immobility and very visibility of wind power that makes its presence unavoidable. In that regard it cannot be hidden underground, stored in tanks, or moved by trains. It is an energy resource that reminds us that our electricity comes from somewhere. The more we wish to tap the power of the wind, the less we will be able to avoid the responsibilities that our demand for energy brings. This necessary bargain, first evident near Palm Springs, California, is now being experienced wherever wind power is being developed.     

Three-dimensional VP and VP /VS models of the upper crust in the Friuli area (northeastern Italy)

3-D images of P velocity and P - to S -velocity ratio have been produced for the upper crust of the Friuli area (northeastern Italy) using local earthquake tomography. The data consist of 2565 P and 930 S arrival times of high quality. The best-fitting V _P and V _P / V _S 1-D models were computed before the 3-D inversion. V _P was measured on two rock samples representative of the investigated upper layers of the Friuli crust. The tomographic V _P model was used for modelling the gravity anomalies, by converting the velocity values into densities along three vertical cross-sections. The computed gravity anomalies were optimized with respect to the observed gravity anomalies. The crust investigated is characterized by sharp lateral and deep V _P and V _P / V _S anomalies that are associated with the complex geological structure. High V _P / V _S values are associated with highly fractured zones related to the main faulting pattern. The relocated seismicity is generally associated with sharp variations in the V _P / V _S anomalies. The V _P images show a high-velocity body below 6 km depth in the central part of the Friuli area, marked also by strong V _P / V _S heterogeneities, and this is interpreted as a tectonic wedge. Comparison with the distribution of earthquakes supports the hypothesis that the tectonic wedge controls most of the seismicity and can be considered to be the main seismogenic zone in the Friuli area.     

100hPa环流变化与川渝地区旱涝异常分析

应用ＳＶＤ技术,诊断分析了北半球１００ｈＰａ高度场与川渝地区夏季降水的关系。结果表明：高度场与降水场具有密切的时空相关性,第一模态反映了两场间的主要耦合特征;南亚高压活动地区前期１０～１２月、１～４月高度场变化,通过影响未来夏季南亚高压强度、位置,导致川渝地区夏季旱涝异常。高度场与降水场的这种非同步联系,物理意义明确,时空相关显著,是一种有价值的预测川渝地区夏季旱涝异常的强信号。     

江西两种典型强对流天气的雷达回波特征分析

选取江西12次典型强对流天气过程,从7个方面对冰雹、雷雨大风和短时强降水2种强对流天气的多普勒天气雷达回波特征进行对比分析。分析结果表明,江西冰雹、雷雨大风天气45～55 dBz强回波平均高度为12.6 km,≥-25℃等温层的高度,比短时强降水天气高5.7 km。弱回波区或有界弱回波区、三体散射长钉、持续高垂直积分液态水含量、中气旋、下湿上干和强风垂直切变等,都是冰雹、雷雨大风天气的典型特征;相对平均径向速度图上“S”形暖平流及表现强低空急流的“牛眼”、深厚的湿度层等,则是短时强降水天气的主要特征。     

基于海上风电场构建海洋水文同步实时现场观测系统的思考

海上风电是一种清洁的可再生能源。本文简述了海上风电发展概况, 并介绍了广东省在南海北部建设海上风电场的进展, 同时描述了南海北部一些典型的海洋水动力过程及其现场观测研究存在的难题; 最后提出利用海上风电场构建海洋水文现场同步实时网络系统的观点, 指出利用这些长期定点的网络式观测数据对研究海洋中小尺度动力过程等的优势。希望能为促进海上风电与海洋科学研究的融合发展提供参考。     

UV-B辐射增强对泥鳅红细胞遗传毒理学指标的影响研究

利用红细胞微核和核异常的遗传毒理学方法,研究UV-B辐射增强对泥鳅红细胞核的细胞遗传毒性效应,评价2种毒理学指标在UV-B辐射监测应用中的可行性。结果显示,随着UV-B辐射剂量的加大,泥鳅红细胞的微核细胞率持续上升,表现出明显的剂量-效应关系,微核细胞率与辐射剂量显著正相关。而泥鳅红细胞核异常率随着UV-B辐射剂量的加大无规律性的变化,没有表现出剂量-效应关系,核异常率与辐射剂量无相关性。脱离UV-B辐射处理6 d后泥鳅红细胞的微核细胞率不能够恢复正常的对照水平,而核异常细胞率随着时间的延长,逐渐得以恢复。结果指示泥鳅红细胞微核率是用于UV-B辐射监测的灵敏和可行的细胞遗传毒理学指标,而核异常率不能用于UV-B辐射的监测。     

基于长短期记忆神经网络的风速超短期快速滚动预报技术

利用甘肃省某风电场2017—2020年测风数据,基于长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)模型,通过评估不同输入数据和模型时间窗口长度下的预报精度,设计一套适用于风电场的风速超短期快速滚动预报方案。结果表明：通过输入不同的特征变量,在风速的超短期(未来4 h内)预报中,风速自身变化起主导作用,模型输入变量中只加入各高度层的风速能得到更好的模拟效果。通过评估LSTM模拟时间窗口长度L对模拟效果的影响,当时间窗口长度L≤24 h时,模拟效果较好,说明超短期风速变化主要和风速自身临近时刻的变化有关;当L>24 h时,模拟效果快速下降,说明过长的L会削弱模拟能力,降低模拟精度。通过分析LSTM在未来4 h内的风速模拟能力,发现随着预报时长的增加,模拟精度逐步下降,但在未来2 h内的风速均方根误差RMSE均小于2 m·s^-1,结果较为理想,且该方法对计算资源要求不高,经济实用性强,在业务中具有较高的应用潜力。     

一次大暴雨过程中低空急流演变与强降水的关系

利用营口新一代天气雷达提供的每6分钟一次的风廓线资料,详细分析了2006年6月29日辽宁省西部大暴雨过程中强降雨时段的低空风场结构。得出:此次强降水天气的发生与低空急流的迅速加强和向下扩展相对应,短时大暴雨发生前低空西南急流提前2小时左右开始有动量快速下传,当20m.s-1的急流中心下传到≤1km超低空,1.2～2.1km低空出现24m.s-1东南急流,有利于产生短时大暴雨;说明低空脉动及向地面扩展程度与短时强降水之间关系密切。低空急流到达测站上空不一定立即产生强降水,有时会滞后1～2个小时,强降水或强烈天气的发生都存在着一定的动量下传,引起低空扰动加强,同时低空急流的强度和伸展高度,以及动量下传的能量大小,都直接制约着强降水的强弱。低空急流指数增大的程度和降水量的强度呈正比关系,低空急流指数不仅可以说明低空急流的脉动以及向地面扩展程度与中小尺度的强降水存在密切的关系,同时对强降水的出现以及雨强的大小有一定的预示作用。     

1997年华南汛期降水异常与大气低频振荡的关系

利用国家气象中心提供的逐日降水资料及NCEP逐日再分析资料,分析了1997年华南地区汛期异常降水低频特征与大气低频振荡的关系。研究表明,1997年华南前汛期和后汛期降水表现为不同的振荡特征;前汛期降水主要以10～20天准双周振荡为主,而后汛期降水的低频特征并不明显。进一步对降水和其它要素的低频振荡特征进行分析发现,该年华南地区前汛期降水和风场的低频振荡现象是普遍存在的;低频纬向风的传播变化与降水的时间分布有较好的对应。并且,高、低纬度低频风场同时向华南地区传输,会产生极强的降水。在对大气低频扰动动能的分析中也发现,华南前汛期降水伴随着低频扰动动能在该地区的集中释放。