2011年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

为更好地应用数值模式中期预报产品,对2011年6—8月T639模式进行天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明：三家模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对大尺度环流形势、影响天气系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式稍差,稳定性也不如ECMWF模式。对1109号台风梅花（MUIFA）的路径及强度预报,三家模式的预报效果均不理想,T639模式对＂梅花＂登陆后的预报与零场较接近,而ECMWF模式及日本模式预报相对较差。     

The high‐frequency limit of usable response spectral ordinates from filtered analogue and digital strong‐motion accelerograms

The range of response frequencies for which spectral ordinates obtained from accelerograms may be considered reliable is limited by several factors, primary among them being the effects of filters that are routinely applied to remove noise from the records. Considerable attention has been focused on the low‐frequency limit of the usable spectral ordinates because of various engineering applications requiring long‐period spectral accelerations or displacements but only recently have rational approaches to selecting the high‐frequency limit been proposed. Since there are applications for which the high‐frequency spectral ordinates are important, the approaches to this issue presented in the recent studies are reviewed and their application to the ground‐motion database from Europe and the Middle East is explored. On the basis of the results of these analyses, it is concluded that a large proportion of this dataset can be used to provide reliable estimates of response spectral ordinates at much shorter periods than may have previously been considered feasible. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

国家地震速报备份系统的部署与运行

国家地震速报备份系统是由中国地震局出资,在广东省地震台网中心建设的一套全自动地震速报系统.本文介绍了国家地震速报备份系统的职责、系统架构、主要功能模块、系统工作原理、部署情况与台网规模,分析了系统2009-2010年运行两年来的工作情况,并对系统自动产出的地震定位结果进行初步的统计与比较,对系统运行的总体效果给予了初步...     

Non-Fickian mass transport in fractured porous media

The paper provides an introduction to fundamental concepts of mathematical modeling of mass transport in fractured porous heterogeneous rocks. Keeping aside many important factors that can affect mass transport in subsurface, our main concern is the multi-scale character of the rock formation, which is constituted by porous domains dissected by the network of fractures. Taking into account the well-documented fact that porous rocks can be considered as a fractal medium and assuming that sizes of pores vary significantly (i.e. have different characteristic scales), the fractional-order differential equations that model the anomalous diffusive mass transport in such type of domains are derived and justified analytically. Analytical solutions of some particular problems of anomalous diffusion in the fractal media of various geometries are obtained. Extending this approach to more complex situation when diffusion is accompanied by advection, solute transport in a fractured porous medium is modeled by the advection-dispersion equation with fractional time derivative. In the case of confined fractured porous aquifer, accounting for anomalous non-Fickian diffusion in the surrounding rock mass, the adopted approach leads to introduction of an additional fractional time derivative in the equation for solute transport. The closed-form solutions for concentrations in the aquifer and surrounding rocks are obtained for the arbitrary time-dependent source of contamination located in the inlet of the aquifer. Based on these solutions, different regimes of contamination of the aquifers with different physical properties can be readily modeled and analyzed.     

Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for flood forecasting: evaluating different methodologies for modelling rainfall spatial correlation (or dependence)

Rainfall threshold (RT) method is one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the threshold rainfall curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall impacts the flood peak discharge and the time to peak. To revisit a previous study conducted by the authors, in which spatially independent rainfall pattern was assumed, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated following a Monte Carlo approach. The structure of the spatial dependence among sub‐watersheds' rainfalls was taken into account under three different scenarios, namely independent, bivariate copula (2copula) and multivariate Gaussian copula (MGC). For each set of generated random dimensionless rainfalls, the probabilistic RT curves were derived for dry moisture condition. Results were evaluated with both historical and simulated events. For the simulated events, threshold curves were assessed by means of categorical statistics, such as hit rate, false rate and critical success index (CSI). Results revealed that the best performance based on the CSI criterion corresponded to 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios as well as 90% curve in the independent scenario. The recognition of 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios is in agreement with our expectations that the mean probable curve should have the best performance. Moreover, the proposed inclusion of spatially dependent rainfall scenario improved the performance of RT curves by about 25% in comparison with the presumed spatially uniform rainfall scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用相关分析法检测两种地震计性能及记录数据差异

阐明利用同点记录数据相关性检测两种地震计性能及记录数据差异的方法,并用两台经过测试且性能相同的FBS - 3B型地震计进行验证,最后用该方法检测了STS -2、KS - 2000型地震计的高频段性能及记录数据差异.     

Analyses of the warm season rainfall climatology of the northeastern US using regional climate model simulations and radar rainfall fields

We examine the warm season (April-September) rainfall climatology of the northeastern US through analyses of high-resolution radar rainfall fields from the Hydro-NEXRAD system and regional climate model simulations using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Analyses center on the 5-year period from 2003 to 2007 and the study area includes the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region covered by radar rainfall fields from the Fort Dix, NJ WSR-88D. The objective of this study is to develop and test tools for examining rainfall climatology, with a special focus on heavy rainfall. An additional emphasis is on rainfall climatology in regions of complex terrain, like the northeastern US, which is characterized by land-water boundaries, large heterogeneity in land use and cover, and mountainous terrain in the western portion of the region. We develop a 5-year record of warm season radar rainfall fields for the study region using the Hydro-NEXRAD system. We perform regional downscaling simulations for the 5-year study period using the WRF model. Radar rainfall fields are used to characterize the interannual, seasonal and diurnal variation of rainfall over the study region and to examine spatial heterogeneity of rainfall. Regional climate model simulations are characterized by a wet bias in the rainfall fields, with the largest bias in the high-elevation regions of the model domain. We show that model simulations capture broad features of the interannual, seasonal, and diurnal variation of rainfall. Model simulations do not capture spatial gradients in radar rainfall fields around the New York metropolitan region and land-water boundaries to the east. The model climatology of convective available potential energy (CAPE) is used to interpret the regional distribution of warm season rainfall and the seasonal and diurnal variability of rainfall. We use hydrologic and meteorological observations from July 2007 to examine the interactions of land surface processes and rainfall from a regional perspective.     

钢管混凝土叠合柱边框内藏钢桁架核心筒抗震性能试验研究

为进一步改善混凝土核心简的抗震性能,本文提出了钢管混凝土叠合柱边框内藏钢桁架组合核心筒.进行了2个1/6缩尺的核心筒模型在低周反复荷载下的抗震性能试验研究,1个为钢管混凝土叠合柱边框毛组合核心筒,1个为钢管混凝土叠合柱边框内藏钢桁架组合核心筒.通过试验,对比分析了2个核心简的承载力、延性、刚度及其衰减、滞回特性、耗能能力及破坏特征,给出了钢管混凝土叠合柱边框内藏钢桁架组合核心筒的承载力计算模型,计算结果与实测值符合较好.研究表明,钢管混凝土叠合柱边框内藏钢桁架组合核心筒与钢管混凝土叠合柱边框组合核心筒相比,其抗震性能明显提高.     

汶川地震中建筑震害衰减特征及抗震性能分析

通过对汶川地震中170个调查点的震害指数进行统计分析,得到了从Ⅵ度到Ⅺ度中各个烈度区内的平均震害指数值和方差,结果表明在Ⅶ到X度区平均震害指数与烈度表基本相符,分析了Ⅵ度区和Ⅺ区内平均震害指数偏高和偏低的原因,指出前者主要因为调查点分布的原因,而后者则可能还受到该烈度区大小划分的影响.在断层距50 km内震害指数高、离...     

地震分布非均匀性指标Kcv值及其在亚洲大地震预测中的应用研究

理论研究和实际预测表明地震空间分布非均匀性指标Cv值是一种有效的预测指标.但目前使用的Cv值在同一信度水平下,其置信区间大小与空间分布的事件样本数大小有关,不便于结果的分析比较.本文在Cv值基础上定义了一个新的预测指标Kcv,并基于强震时空概率增益预测模型及其单项预测方法预测效能检验的方法,依据亚洲地震重点研究区近20...