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Anne Lausten Hansen Anne Storgaard Xin He Anker Lajer Hjberg Jens Christian Refsgaard Bo Vangs Iversen Charlotte Kjaergaard 《水文研究》2019,33(3):450-462
There has, in recent years, been an increasing interest in developing nutrient load mitigation measures focussing on tile drains. To plan the location of such tile drain measures, it is important to know where in the landscape drain flow is generated and to understand the key factors governing drain flow dynamics. In the present study, we test two approaches to assess spatial patterns in drain flow generation and thereby assess the importance of including geological information. The approaches are the widely used topographical wetness index (TWI), based solely on elevation data, and hydrological models that include the subsurface geology. We set‐up an ensemble of 20 hydrological models based on 20 stochastically generated geological models to predict drain flow dynamics in the clay till Norsminde catchment in Denmark and test the results against TWI. We find that the hydrological models predict observed daily drain flow reasonably well. High drain flow volumes were found in stream valleys and in wetlands and lower drain flow volumes in the more hilly parts of the catchment. In spite of the apparent connection to the landscape, there was no statistically significant correlation between TWI and drain flow at grid scale (100 × 100 m). TWI was therefore not found to be a sufficient index on its own to assess where drain flow is generated, especially in the highlands of the catchment. The geology below 3 m was found to have a large impact on the drain flow, and correlations between sand percentage in the subsurface geology and drain flow volume were found to be statistically significant. Geological uncertainty therefore give rise to uncertainty on simulated drain flow, and this uncertainty was found to be high at the model grid scale but decreasing with increasing scale. 相似文献
908.
Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of ?6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and ?11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results. 相似文献
909.
用流动形变观测判定强震危险地点的研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
分析了形变异常形成的机理,认为形变异常的空间与时间分布特征可以用断层活动闭锁区的形成及发展来解释,活动断层的闭锁区为强震发生地点。提出了半年至几年时间尺度判定强震危险地点的原则和判定危险区与危险地点的具体方法。 相似文献
910.
以新月时月亮的射电辐射为温度基准和准口面温度定标的方法,在22GHz频率上于1993年7月~3月测量了13.7m射电望远镜抛物面天线的增益。根据测量的增益值(67.10─±0.07db)定标了太阳射电流量,流量测量的系统差为±5.8%,偶然差为±2.7%,测量的宁静太阳亮温度(非源区)为10100±300K。除此之外,还推导和计算了不同源模型下的天线方向图改正因子Ks,并计算了太阳射电源的流量密度。 相似文献