New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Estimating the minimum in-stream flow requirements via wetted perimeter method based on curvature and slope techniques

Under the assumptions of triangular cross section channel and uniform stable flow, an analytical solution of the minimum ecological in-stream flow requirement (MEIFR) is deduced. Based on the analytical solution, the uncertainty of the wetted perimeter method is analyzed by comparing the two techniques for the determination of the critical point on the relationship curve between wetted perimeter, P and discharge, Q. It is clearly shown that the results of MEIFR based on curvature technique (corresponding to the maximum curvature) and slope technique (slope being 1) are significantly different. On the P-Q curve, the slope of the critical point with the maximum curvature is 0.39 and the MEIFR varied prominently with the change of the slope threshold. This indicates that if a certain value of the slope threshold is not available for slope technique, curvature technique may be a better choice. By applying the analytical solution of MEIFR in the losing rivers of the Western Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China, the MEIFR value via curvature technique is 2.5%-23.7% of the multi-year average annual discharge, while that for slope technique is 11%-105.7%. General conclusions would rely on the more detailed research for all kinds of cross-sections.     

Optimization of SAGD Well Elevation

The application of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to recover heavy oil sands is becoming increasingly important in the northern Alberta McMurray Formation because of the vast resources/reserves accessible with this mechanism. Selecting the stratigraphic elevations of SAGD well pairs is a vital decision for reservoir evaluation and planning. The inherent uncertainty in the distribution of geological variables significantly influences this decision. Geostatistical simulation is used to capture geological uncertainty, which is used can be transformed into a distribution of the best possible well pair elevations. A simple exhaustive calculation scheme is used to determine the optimum stratigraphic location of a SAGD well pair where the recovery R is maximized. There are three basic steps to the methodology: (1) model the uncertainty in the top continuous bitumen (TCB) and bottom continuous bitumen (BCB) surfaces, (2) calculate the recovery at all possible elevation increments within the TCB and BCB interval, and (3) identify the elevation that maximizes R. This is repeated for multiple TCB/BCB pairs of surfaces to assess uncertainty. The methodology is described and implemented on a subset of data from the Athabasca Oilsands in Fort McMurray, Alberta.     

Comparison of magnetic parameters with vehicular Br levels in urban roadside soils

Chemical methods are generally chosen to monitor soil pollution but magnetic measurements proved to yield additional information at low cost and less time consumption. In this investigation, the novel use of rapid and non-destructive magnetic measurements to characterize Br levels in Xuzhou (China) urban roadside soils was reported. X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) was used to quantify Br in the soil samples. Data from 21 roadside soil samples confirm Br contamination, with a mean level of 4.36 mg kg⁻¹ and a range of 2.4–8.7 mg kg⁻¹. These values are higher than that of unpolluted soils in Xuzhou that averages 1.1 mg kg⁻¹. Hierarchical clustering analysis shows Br in Xuzhou roadside soils is mainly from road traffic. Clear correlations between Br levels and simple magnetic parameters [mass specific susceptibility (χ _LF), susceptibility of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (χ _ARM), saturation isothermal remanence (SIRM)] are observed. The present study shows that these three magnetic parameters can be used as a proxy for Br levels in Xuzhou urban roadside soils.     

圆形标志中心子像素定位方法的研究与实现

采用回光反射材料制作圆形回光反射标志，经摄影后得到标志的“准二值影像”；对标志的椭圆影像进行亚像素边缘提取，经最小二乘椭圆拟合后得到标志中心的子像素级位置。试验表明，可以达到0．02像素的定位精度。     

Relationship of Uncertainty and Line Segment for Between Polygon Segment Spatial Data in GIS

The mathematic theory for uncertainty model of line segment are summed up to achieve a general conception, and the line error hand model of εσ is a basic uncertainty model that can depict the line accuracy and quality efficiently while the model of εm and error entropy can be regarded as the supplement of it. The error band model will reflect and describe the influence of line uncertainty on polygon uncertainty. Therefore, the statistical characteristic of the line error is studied deeply by analyzing the probability that the line error falls into a certain range. Moreover, the theory accordance is achieved in the selecting the error buffer for line feature and the error indicator. The relationship of the accuracy of area for a polygon with the error loop for a polygon boundary is deduced and computed.     

中国大陆科学钻探主孔声发射法现今地应力状态的确定

对中国大陆科学钻探主孔的岩心进行了声发射测量,确定了301～1531m深度的最大主应力。并与钻孔崩落法(深度1269～1655m)测量结果进行了对比,结果表明,声发射测量所得测值基本上落在钻孔崩落法测值的趋势线上,两种方法所得结果一致,说明测量结果可信。测量结果表明科学钻探主孔地应力大小随深度增加,在浅部301m最大主应力为13.4MPa,在深部1655m为55.2MPa。随深度的增加率为0.0279MPa/m。最大主应力方向为N54°±3.3°E,且方向不随深度变化。     

贵州大方县公鸡山地裂缝特征成因及防治

文章通过对贵州省大方县以公鸡山地裂隙实地调查，认为地裂隙的形成主要与公鸡山一带地下采煤有关。即采煤虚脱，沿先存构造断裂拉张而成。同时叙述了地裂缝特征及危害，并提出防灾减灾措施。     

城市热岛效应监测方法研究进展

城市热岛效应是一种由于城市建筑及人们活动导致的热量在城区空间范围内聚集的现象,是城市气候最明显的特征之一.由于城市热岛影响因素以及相互关系的复杂性,为了精确细致地描述其时空分布,人们采用了多种方法来研究城市热岛现象,主要归纳为：气象站法、定点观测法、运动样带法、遥感测定法以及模拟预测等.最后,认为各种测定方法都存在一定的缺陷,建议多种测定方法综合运用.