Concentration profiles of particles settling in the neutral and stratified atmospheric boundary layer

An expression for the vertical equilibrium concentration profile of heavy particles, including the effects of canopy on the eddy diffusivity as well as corrections for atmospheric stability, is proposed. This expression is validated against measurements of vertical concentration profiles of corn pollen above a corn field. The fitted theoretical profiles show that particle settling is correctly accounted for. The sensitivity to variations in the turbulent Schmidt number, settling velocity and stability corrections are explicitly characterized. The importance of independent measurements of the surface flux of pollen in future experiments is noted.     

北京地区大气稳定度垂直分布特征

基于北京325米气象铁塔观测资料,分析了北京地区大气稳定度垂直分布特征、日变化特征、季节变化特征.     

邢台市大气稳定度和混合层厚度特征研究

基于1981—2010年邢台市逐日4个时次地面气象观测资料和2014年的同期逐日空气污染API值及气象观测数据,运用修正的Pasquill稳定度分类法和混合层厚度计算方法得出邢台市近30年大气稳定度和混合层厚度变化特征,结果表明:近30年邢台市大气不稳定类呈1.16%/10a增长,中性类呈-1.40%/10a下降,稳定类变化趋势不明显,月变化以中性类和稳定类为主,日变化受太阳辐射强度的影响明显。混合层厚度主要受风速影响,平均厚度460.09m,月变化呈"单峰型"分布。在02:00、08:00、14:00和20:00四个时次上混合层厚度都具有春季大于夏季大于冬季大于秋季的分布特点。经验证发现混合层厚度和不同稳定度等级的出现频率是影响空气质量的重要因子。     

发展方程的非线性计算不稳定问题

进一步讨论了有关非线性不稳定的一些问题,其主要内容有： １．考察了有代表性的三类发展方程,指出其对应的差分格式是否出现非线性计算不稳定,与原微分方程解的性质密切相关。 ２．进一步讨论了带周期边条件的守恒型差分格式的非线性计算稳定性问题,总结了克服非线性不稳定的有效措施。 ３．以非线性平流方程为例,着重分析了带非周期边条件的非守恒差分格式的非线性计算稳定性问题,给出了判别其计算稳定性的“综合分析判别法”。     

近44 a中国冬夏气温变率及其对区域变暖性的影响

利用近44a中国85个测站冬夏季逐日平均、最高和最低气温序列,研究冬夏季温度季节变率及其时空演变特征,探讨其对区域变暖稳定性的影响。结果表明：冬季,除高原、西南、东北以外的中国大部分地区,温度的季节变率存在显著下降趋势,是近期变暖的稳定区,其中变暖最为稳定、显著的区域是西北、华北地区,东北北部虽变暖幅度很大,但稳定性最差;夏季,长江中下游及其江南地区温度变率存在显著上升趋势,20世纪70年代后年际变幅明显增大,表明该地区80年代降温的稳定性差。     

北太平洋副热带向东逆流区Rossby波斜压稳定性

根据对卫星观测的海平面高度资料的分析,进一步证实了在北太平洋副热带两支向东的流（副热带逆流和夏威夷背风逆流）所在的区域内,海平面高度的70～210天周期振荡是主要的低频变化.发现在这两支向东的逆流区Rossby波的特性不同：副热带逆流区70～210天周期振荡对应的Rossby波西传过程中增幅,在台湾以东振幅达到最大;而在夏威夷背风逆流区,70～210天周期Rossby波在西传过程中不出现增幅现象.依据25层海洋模式得到的关于Rossby波振幅、频率与海洋层结之间的关系,揭示了周期为70～210天的Rossby波为不稳定波,这是由于副热带逆流海域模态水存在使得密度的垂直梯度变小的缘故;而在夏威夷背风逆流区位于表层逆流下的北赤道流西深东浅,70～210天周期Rossby长波在逆流的东部有可能不稳定,但其在逆流的西部是稳定的,因此不出现在西传过程中增幅现象;发现在北太平洋副热带两个向东流的海域,年周期Rossby波是稳定的,因此,在该海域海平面周期为70～210天的振荡的振幅要比年周期振荡的振幅大.     

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: Applications to stability,sensitivity, and predictability

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is a nonlinear generalization of linear singular vector (LSV) and features the largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time for the initial perturbations in a given constraint. It was proposed initially for predicting the limitation of predictability of weather or climate. Then CNOP has been applied to the studies of the problems related to predictability for weather and climate. In this paper, we focus on reviewing the recent advances of CNOP’s applications, which involves the ones of CNOP in problems of ENSO amplitude asymmetry, block onset, and the sensitivity analysis of ecosystem and ocean’s circulations, etc. Especially, CNOP has been primarily used to construct the initial perturbation fields of ensemble forecasting, and to determine the sensitive area of target observation for precipitations. These works extend CNOP’s applications to investigating the nonlinear dynamical behaviors of atmospheric or oceanic systems, even a coupled system, and studying the problem of the transition between the equilibrium states. These contributions not only attack the particular physical problems, but also show the superiority of CNOP to LSV in revealing the effect of nonlinear physical processes. Consequently, CNOP represents the optimal precursors for a weather or climate event; in predictability studies, CNOP stands for the initial error that has the largest negative effect on prediction; and in sensitivity analysis, CNOP is the most unstable (sensitive) mode. In multi-equilibrium state regime, CNOP is the initial perturbation that induces the transition between equilibriums most probably. Furthermore, CNOP has been used to construct ensemble perturbation fields in ensemble forecast studies and to identify sensitive area of target observation. CNOP theory has become more and more substantial. It is expected that CNOP also serves to improve the predictability of the realistic predictions for weather and climate events plays an increasingly important role in exploring the nonlinear dynamics of atmospheric, oceanic and coupled atmosphere-ocean system. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2006CB403606, 2007CB411800), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955, 40675030, 40505013), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. IAP07202), and LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund     

桂平市气象参数对大气环境评价的影响

通过收集可代表桂平市气象条件2010年的气象资料,对该气象站的不同观测频率气象参数的统计结果进行了对比分析,得出风向频率玫瑰图、污染系数图、大气稳定度,并论述了其对大气环境评价的影响,得出桂平市的大气输送通道。     

土质边坡失稳判别的CA-AA耦合模型

解决边坡稳定性问题的关键是确定最危险滑动面(潜在最危险滑动面)和边坡的稳定系数。将蚁群算法用于求解土质的边坡稳定性问题。针对蚁群算法在演化过程中存在停滞和过早收敛的现象,对基本蚁群算法的结构形式和蚂蚁转移概率的计算进行了改进。构建了一种新的蚁群算法——元胞蚁群算法(CA-AA)。在文武坡边坡稳定性判别中,利用CA-AA法计算得到其稳定系数为1.37,略小于《岩土工程勘察规范》不平衡推力法计算值,弥补了不平衡推力法的不足,更接近实际。算例结果表明:元胞蚁群算法(CA-AA)总能搜索到问题的全局最优解,且搜索效率也有较大的提高。     

库岸斜坡失稳及其涌浪灾害风险分析

库岸斜坡失稳及其引发涌浪问题是库岸斜坡灾害的重要研究部分,开展库岸斜坡失稳及其涌浪灾害风险分析研究对指导库岸斜坡防灾减灾具有重要意义。以湖南省麻阳县大水冲水库滑坡为例,探讨库岸斜坡失稳引发涌浪灾害的分析方法,采用Geostudio软件进行10年和50年一遇5日累积降雨的滑坡稳定性模拟分析,绘制滑坡影响范围内建筑物风险变化图和室内人员风险变化图。总结了在最危险工况下,大水冲水库滑坡总经济风险为249.3万元,室内人员的风险值达到27.8,并有产生翻坝的可能,但对沟口居民和水库坝体破坏的风险低。