Quantification of Spatial and Thematic Uncertainty in the Application of Underwater Video for Benthic Habitat Mapping

This study presents an analysis of the application of underwater video data collected for training and validating benthic habitat distribution models. Specifically, we quantify the two major sources of error pertaining to collection of this type of reference data. A theoretical spatial error budget is developed for a positioning system used to co-register video frames to their corresponding locations at the seafloor. Second, we compare interpretation variability among trained operators assessing the same video frames between times over three hierarchical levels of a benthic classification scheme. Propagated error in the positioning system described was found to be highly correlated with depth of operation and varies from 1.5m near the surface to 5.7m in 100m of water. In order of decreasing classification hierarchy, mean overall observer agreement was found to be 98% (range 6%), 82% (range 12%) and 75% (range 17%) for the 2, 4, and 6 class levels of the scheme, respectively. Patterns in between-observer variation are related to the level of detail imposed by each hierarchical level of the classification scheme, the feature of interest, and to the amount of observer experience.     

Comparison of the Ku-Band Range Noise Level and the Relative Sea-State Bias of the Jason-1, TOPEX,and Poseidon-1 Radar Altimeters Special Issue: Jason-1 Calibration/Validation

TOPEX/Poseidon is a well known success, with the operational altimeter (TOPEX) and the experimental one (Poseidon-1), providing data of unprecedented quality. However, there are two major differences between the TOPEX and Poseidon-1 radar altimeters on board TOPEX/Poseidon. The first is related to the estimated range noise; the second is linked to the sea-state bias (SSB) model estimates. Since the recent launch of the Jason-1 radar altimeter (also called Poseidon-2), we have been cross-comparing these three systems to better characterize each of them. Analyzing standard user products, we have found that Jason-1 is behaving like Poseidon-1 and thus shows the same observed differences when compared with TOPEX. A comparative analysis of their features was performed, starting from the on-board acquisition of the ocean return and ending with the ground generation of the high level accuracy oceanographic product. The results lead us to believe that the sources for these differences lie in both the waveform tracking processing and the presence or abscence of a retracking procedure whether on-board or on ground. Because Poseidon-1 and Jason-1 waveforms are retracked while TOPEX waveforms are not in the products distributed to the users, we have applied the same ground retracking algorithm to the waveforms of the three radar altimeters to get consistent data sets. The analysis of the outputs has shown that: (a) the noise level for the three radar altimeters is definitively the same, and (b) the source of the relative SSB between Jason-1 and TOPEX lies in the different behavior of the on-board tracking softwares.     

基于多卫星融合资料的南海浪高时空分布特征研究

为提高对南海波浪场的认识, 采用基于多卫星融合的2009年9月～2011年11月的AVISO(Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data)有效浪高格点数据对南海浪高的月变化特征进行分析, 并结合南海的波浪特征和地形特点, 将南海划分为6个海区, 讨论南海浪高的空间分布规律。研究发现南海浪高具有以下2个特征: (1)南海浪高表现为由东向西、由北往南递减: 北部深水区>北部陆架区>南海中部≈北部湾>南部陆架区>泰国湾。(2)浪高的月变化与季风的变化密不可分: 10月～次年3月(冬季风影响期间)>4月和9月(季风转换期)>5月～8月(夏季风影响期间), 1月最大, 5月最小。该研究成果对开展南海海浪的中长期预报、保障南海资源开发和军事安全等有一定的借鉴意义和参考价值。     

平均大潮高潮面的计算方法与比较

平均大潮高潮面在我国用作海洋测绘净空信息表示的参考面。论证了该特征潮面的定义,扩充了其含义范围,将回归潮高高潮位应用为平均大潮高潮位。分析描述了实测潮位和预报潮位统计计算方法,比较了统计方法与潮汐特征值算法的符合度,计算了平均大潮高潮位与理论最高潮位的比率。基本研究结论是:对规则半日潮和规则日潮海域,统计算法和特征值算法的结果较为一致,而混合潮海域,两种特征潮位之间存在明显差异,平均大潮高潮位计算的相关问题需深入系统论证。     

海岸沙坝近底悬移质通量实验研究

为了研究海岸沙坝的产生和演化机理,对不规则波和波群作用下沙坝上方的近底悬移质通量进行了实验研究。分析了短波、长波和平均水流对悬移质通量的影响。结果表明:各种波况下平均水流和长波的作用始终使泥沙向离岸方向输移,而短波的作用使泥沙向岸方向运动;平均水流引起的泥沙输移始终占主要成分,长波的次之。不规则波情况下平均水流的影响较规则波的情况相对较弱,三种成分对泥沙输运的贡献属于同一量级。波群情况下长波的影响随着波浪群性的增强而加大,短波的不明显,而平均水流的影响则随着波浪群性的增强而减弱。     

Near-surface structure and energy characteristics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

Historical surface drifter observations collected from the Southern Ocean are used to study the near-surface structure, variability, and energy characteristics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC）. A strong, nearly zonal ACC combined with complex fronts dominates the circulation system in the Southern Ocean. Standard variance ellipses indicate that both the Agulhas Return Current and the East Australian Warm Current are stable supplements of the near-surface ACC, and that the anticyclonic gyre formed by the Brazil warm current and the Malvinas cold current is stable throughout the year. During austral winter, the current velocity increases because of the enhanced westerly wind. Aroused by the meridional motion of the ACC, the meridional velocity shows greater instability characteristics than the zonal velocity does over the core current. Additionally, the ACC exhibits an eastward declining trend in the core current velocity from southern Africa. The characteristics of the ACC are also argued from the perspective of energy. The energy distribution suggests that the mean kinetic energy （MKE）, eddy kinetic energy （EKE）, and are strong over the core currents of the ACC. However, in contrast, EKE/MKE suggests there is much less （more） eddy dissipation in regions with strong （weak） energy distribution. Both meridional and zonal energy variations are studied to illustrate additional details of the ACC energy characteristics. Generally, all the energy forms except EKE/MKE present west-east reducing trends, which coincide with the velocity statistics. Eddy dissipation has a much greater effect on MKE in the northern part of the Southern Ocean.     

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Improved estimators of correlation and R2 for skewed hydrologic data

ABSTRACT

The coefficient of determination R² and Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = R are standard metrics in hydrology for the evaluation of the goodness of fit between model simulations and observations, and as measures of the degree of dependence of one variable upon another. We show that the standard product moment estimator of ρ, termed r, while well-behaved for bivariate normal data, is upward biased and highly variable for bivariate non-normal data. We introduce three alternative estimators of ρ which are nearly unbiased and exhibit much less variability than r for non-normal data. We also document remarkable upward bias and tremendous increases in variability associated with r using both synthetic data and daily streamflow simulations from 905 calibrated rainfall–runoff models. We show that estimators of ρ = R accounting for skewness are needed for daily streamflow series because they exhibit high variability and skewness compared to, for example, monthly/annual series, where r should perform well.     

基于地震对应概率谱分析的定点形变前兆异常探索

利用地震对应概率谱和累计滑动平均概率方法,选取精河水平摆卡尔曼滤波差值进行中强地震前兆定量的异常识别探索。探索中先是对精河水平摆卡尔曼滤波差值数据进行数据分布及各区间参数有震对应分布的研究,然后利用累计滑动平均方法得到滑动平均概率,从而检验地震对应概率谱在定点形变前兆异常的预报效能。     

山地冰川流动模型探讨

近30 a来冰川动力学模型有了快速发展, 在南极、 格林兰冰盖预测中取得一系列重要成果, 对山地冰川的研究也初见端倪. 从冰川流动的力学过程出发, 利用本构方程、 理想冰川假设、 浅冰层近似(Shallow ice approximation)假设完整地推导了理想冰川流动的物理过程, 揭示了冰川流动的机理, 建立了气候变化和冰川自身重力引起的理想冰川物质和能量再分配的温度耦合三维流动模型. 结合山地冰川的冰床形态, 将理想冰川与实际冰川相结合, 使理想冰川流动模型更好地近似山地冰川的流动.