Towards a comprehensive approach to parameter estimation in land surface parameterization schemes

In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

图根支导线测角中误差计算公式之讨论

本文结合实例讨论了小地区平面控制测量中多条图根支导线测角中误差m角平的三种计算方法,其中方法二全面考虑多条图根支导线的测量误差,其计算测角中误差m角平的公式也是最值得推广的。按照方法二可计算出各条图根支导线的测站点圆周角闭合差是否超过±40″,各条支导线的角度闭合差fβj是否超过40 n1″,测角中误差m角平是否超过21.2″,由此可以判断测角精度是否合格,在测量工作中具有一定的实用性。     

油气勘探开发数据体平均值代表性分析

油气勘探开发涉及各类数据体,同一数据体可得多种平均值,目前尚无明确而有效的方法以判断何种平均值能客观反映数据体的典型水平。运用数据统计平均分析方法,对勘探开发实践中的孔隙度、渗透率、产量、成本等数据体进行系统分析,确立了加权中位数计算公式和平衡中位数法则。加权中位数计算公式适于分析不同领域正常有序数据体的基本特征,加权中位数为正常有序数据体的平衡点;平衡中位数法则适于确定有足够大数据容量、能满足统计分析基本要求、能选择合理权衡指标的正常有序数据体的典型水平;有明确物理意义的加权平均值也可确定数据体的典型水平。     

基于CMIP6模式的黄河上游地区未来气温模拟预估

利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）提供的5个气候模式,并结合基于地面气象站的CN05.1气象资料,评估了CMIP6模式对黄河上游地区1961—2014年气温变化的模拟能力。基于7个共享社会经济路径及代表性浓度路径（SSP-RCP）组合情景,结合多模式集合平均预估了2015—2100年黄河上游地区年均气温和季平均气温的时空变化规律。结果表明：多模式集合平均能较好地模拟黄河上游地区历史平均气温的空间分布格局与年变化。7个未来情景一致表明,2015—2100年黄河上游地区年平均气温呈现波动上升趋势［0.03～0.82 ℃?（10a）^-1］。其中,低辐射强迫情景下（SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6及SSP4-3.4）气温先呈现增加趋势,21世纪中期到达增幅峰值,之后增温呈现放缓趋势;而中、高辐射强迫情景下（SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-6.0及SSP5-8.5）气温表现为持续上升态势。空间上,未来气温增幅显著的区域位于黄河上游西部地区;时间上,呈现夏季增温快,春季增温慢。四季增温的空间分布呈现出一致特征,表现为西部增温强于东部,北部增温强于南部。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理及气候变化的适应性研究提供科学依据。     

方差分量估计在高速铁路铺轨控制网中的应用

在处理边角网平差时,由于测边、测角相互独立,通常只能根据经验按观测类型不同进行验前方差估计,不能准确确定测边、测角观测量的权,影响了控制网的精确度。以高铁铺轨控制网(CPIII)数据处理为例,采用方差分量估计方法对控制网进行了数据处理和精度分析,并与等权处理方法做了比较,对边角网或其它不同类型的复杂控制网数据处理具有一定的参考价值。     

未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述

气候变化将会对生态系统、自然资源、极端气候和人类社会产生一定的影响,科学评估未来气候变化响应是应对气候变化的前提。通过对当前研究成果的回顾,建立未来气候情景下气候变化响应研究的系统思路,并总结了研究所涉及的方法。系统论述了应用第5阶段耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)气候模式前进行适用性评价的必要性;分析了当前降尺度方法尤其是统计降尺度的主要方法及进展;归纳了偏差校正过程中普遍使用的方法,最后,综合分析了整个研究过程中的不确定性。研究将为气候变化响应分析提供方法和思路指导。     

基于中性集对北川羌族自治县新城人工建设用地的识别

人工建设用地(包括建筑物、道路、广场等社会服务设施)的识别一直是用来监测地区发展速度的一个有效途径。针对目前在人工建设用地识别领域中对在建建筑物的忽视问题,利用中性集、均值漂移以及绿度因子等概念将在建建设用地信息进行增强,进而将其成功识别出来。实验证明,该方法对高分辨率遥感影像的人工建设用地识别是可行的。通过分析2009—2013年期间北川新城的建设工地面积及分布的变化情况可以看出,北川新城在2010—2013年期间完工面积占2009—2010年新建工程总面积的98.17%,在北川新城拓展区又新建0.6 km2的工程,施工迅速,为受灾居民提供了良好的居住和生活保障。     

Generalized Hough transform for the stress inversion of calcite twin data

Since the mechanical twinning along calcite e-planes has a critical resolved shear stress, not only principal stress axes but also differential stress can be determined from the orientations of twin lamellae. Based on the five-dimensional stress space that fulfills the principle of coordinate invariance, it is shown in this article that the inversion of twin and untwin data is comparable with fitting a spherical cap to data points on a unit sphere in the space. The principal stress orientations and stress ratio are indicated by the center of the cap, whereas differential stress is denoted by the size of the cap. Based on this geometrical interpretation, the generalized Hough transform was applied to the inversion of the data in this study. The new method is demonstrated to be robust to sampling bias, variability in the critical resolved shear stress. The determination of differential stress was difficult when the differential stress to be detected was ∼10 times larger than the critical resolved shear stress. Stresses were separated by the method from heterogeneous data successfully as long as the spherical caps corresponding to the stresses to be detected had no or a small intersection.     

Two Opposite Extreme Events in Seasonal Mean Winter Rainfall over East China during the Past Three Decades

In this study,the extremes of winter seasonal mean precipitation have been investigated by using daily precipitation data from 91 stations in East China,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)monthly reanalysis,and sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Centre for 1979–2007.The largest anomalous rainfall amount was observed in regions south of the Yangtze River.In the most recent three decades,extreme events in the seasonal mean winter precipitation occurred in 1985 and 1997.Because it was influenced mainly by a La Ni a event,the precipitation in 1985 showed a deficit following a stronger winter monsoon.The rainfall amount in 1997 was influenced by El Ni o and was significantly larger than normal with a weaker winter monsoon.Both the circulation anomalies and wave energy dispersions during the winters of 1985 and 1997 differed significantly.In 1985,the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalously excited the Eurasian-Pacific teleconnection and circumglobal teleconnection phenomena.Consequently,Rossby wave energy propagated along the north and south branches of the westerlies,strengthening the East Asian trough along with a stronger winter monsoon,which facilitated the wintertime dry extreme in East China.In1997,however,Rossby wave energy propagated from low latitudes northeastward into the southern part of China,resulting in a weaker winter monsoon and the wettest winter.The results of this study will be helpful for future monitoring and prediction of extreme winter rainfall events in East China.     

An analysis of six simultaneous wind records taken near Vancouver

Abstract

Hourly wind speeds and directions taken at six sites near Vancouver, Canada over a period of one year during 1971–1972 have been analyzed. Mean magnitude ratios obtained for different wind directions under high wind conditions vary from about 0.3 to 1.4 and can be explained qualitatively by local shelter effects, local terrain effects or anemometer heights. The mean magnitude ratio is in every case shown to be essentially identical to the ratio of mean wind magnitudes, for high wind conditions; this is justified by simple analysis. The standard deviation of the magnitude ratio lies between 0.24 and 0.69 of the mean ratio. Uncertainty in this mean ratio, which is an important link in wind engineering design, may have to be incorporated into statistical design procedures to avoid taking unknown risks in the estimation of design wind speeds.