中国夏季高温与北极海冰的联系特征

为研究前期以及同时期北极海冰异常对中国夏季高温的影响,根据近50年来中国160个台站的夏季高温资料以及近50年来的北极海冰资料,用SVD诊断分析方法,提取出两场相关最强,协方差最大的三个时次--分别为同期、海冰超前夏季高温9个月和超前13个月.分析研究表明:当北极海冰发生异常时,中国夏季高温异常的响应是滞后的,尤其是滞后9个月、13个月时;北极海冰在1978-1979年突然异常减少,且1979年以后维持海冰偏少的态势;当前期或同时期的北极海冰出现异常增多(减少)时,在中国夏季高温场上的响应以"南区"、"北区"夏季高温异常偏低(偏高),与海冰变化反位相;"中区"夏季高温异常偏高(偏低),与海冰变化同位相.     

非纬向非平行基流中的对称不稳定

文中讨论了非纬向非平行基流中的对称不稳定,得到了新的非纬向基流下对称不稳定的判据条件。在存在横向切变时,无旋层结流体中扰动的不稳定条件为Ｒｉ＜１４ｓｉｎ２（β－α）;而在有旋层结流体中,弱的横向切变在取一级近似时并不能改变对称不稳定的增长率,但扰动必定传播,传播方向是顺切变方向,波长越短,传播速度越快。     

ANALYSIS OF SPHERICAL FUNCTION SPECTRAL STRUCTURE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 500 HPA MONTHLY MEAN HEIGHT

Study is undertaken of spherical function spectral structures of long-term mean and anomaly patterns of theNorthern Hemisphere 500 hPa monthly mean geopotential height together with the seasonal and interannual variationsinvestigated.Results show that they are marked by low dimensions and low orders,and the mean and anomaly fields canbe described in terms of 20 and 50 spherical function components,respectively.     

Comparisons of Two Ensemble Mean Methods in Measuring the Average Error Growth and the Predictability

In this paper, taking the Lorenz system as an example, we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth. The results show that the geometric mean error (GME) has a smoother growth than the arithmetic mean error (AME) for the global average error growth, and the GME is directly related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent, but the AME is not, as already noted by Krishnamurthy in 1993. Besides these, the GME is shown to be more appropriate than the AME in measuring the mean error growth in terms of the probability distribution of errors. The physical meanings of the saturation levels of the AME and the GME are also shown to be different. However, there is no obvious difference between the local average error growth with the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean, indicating that the choices of the AME or the GME have no influence on the measure of local average predictability.     

多变量均生函数的正交化筛选方案在季节降水预报中的试验研究

用预报量与多变量预报因子的均值生成函数,通过Ｇｒａｍ－Ｓｃｈｍｉｄｔ正交化使均值生成函数彼此正交,同时利用双评分准则确定入选预报模型的均生函数个数,最后建立山西省季节降水的预报模型。试验结果表明,该模型预报山西省季节降水的效果很好,是一种提高短期区域气候预报水平的可行方法。     

我国瓦里关山、兴隆温室气体CO2、CH4和N2O的背景浓度

为了研究中国大陆温室性气体CO₂、CH₄和N₂O大气浓度的区域分布和变化特征以及与人类活动的关系,从1995~2000年,先后在青海瓦里关山全球大气基准站（36°18′N,100°54′E,3810 m）及河北中国科学院兴隆天文台（40°24′N,117°30′E, 940 m）,利用不锈钢瓶取样和气相色谱法分析,观测了两地大气中温室气体CO₂、CH₄和N₂O的浓度及其变化情况。结果表明:兴隆和瓦里关山站CO₂、CH₄和N₂O的同期年平均浓度分别为376.7×10-6和373.5×10-6,1886×10-9和1831×10-9,316.7×10-9和314.9×10-9。从1995~2000年,兴隆站CO₂、CH₄和N₂O的年增长率分别为1.95×10-6,9.02×10-9和0.75×10-9。而瓦里关山站从1997~2000年,CO₂、CH₄和N₂O的年增长率分别为1.41×10-6,9.95×10-9和0.82×10-9。两地大气中三种气体的浓度与年增长率与全球同类台站的观测结果接近。同时也在一定程度上反映了各自不同的环境背景特征。     

浙江近海冬季大风风速推算和ASCAT风速订正方法探讨

利用2010—2014年12月至次年2月浙江省自动气象站测风资料和ASCAT散射计反演的风场资料,通过模糊聚类空间分型,选取有代表性的站点建立浙江近海冷空气大风的风速推算公式,并对ASCAT近海风场产品进行误差分析和风速订正。结果表明:冷空气影响时浙江北部近海多数自动站与舟山浮标站相比有偏南风矢量差,南部近海自动站比温州浮标站有东南风矢量差,自动站风速一般小于浮标站。海拔高度与自动站和浮标站风速差值δ相关性不显著,站点离岸距离是影响δ的主要因子。冷空气影响时浙江近海ASCAT反演风速与实况相关系数的分布具有平行于海岸线且自西向东增大的特征,相关系数超过0.5的站点一般离岸30 km以上,舟山和温州12个浮标站测风与ASCAT反演风具有较好的相关性。浙江近海ASCAT风速的误差空间差异较大,经订正后的风速分布也具有平行于海岸线、自西向东逐渐增大的特征,且与观测的误差绝对值一般小于2 m·s~(-1)。     

四川地区EC细网格模式2m温度偏差订正研究

本文选取2017年1~12月ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格模式168h预报时效的2m温度场和对应时段四川地区157个国家站的观测资料,对比分析了模式温度预报的系统性偏差特征,采用15日周期的滑动双权重平均法对2m温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并与四川省气象台现有的主、客观预报产品进行对比,结果表明:(1)EC模式对低温的预报准确率远高于高温预报准确率;订正后高、低温预报准确率均有显著提高,其中低温平均提高了20.5%,高温提高了31.2%,平均绝对误差分别减小约1.1℃和2.9℃。(2)EC模式高温预报的逐月差异明显比低温预报逐月差异大,订正后差异明显减小,且各月的高、低温预报准确率均有显著提升,订正后各月高、低温的平均绝对误差均在2℃之内。(3)EC模式对于低温和高温的预报在全省均大致呈现负的系统性误差,且高温预报的系统性误差明显比低温预报的系统性误差大,订正后2m温度预报的系统性误差均明显降低,全省大部分地区维持在±1℃之间。(4)与四川省气象台现有的主、客观预报产品对比显示,对于高低温预报均是EC订正后准确率最高、平均绝对误差最小,订正效果较为理想。     

四平井水位多年动态变化原因探讨

本文通过回归分析和迳流时间的计算，发现四平井１９８３—１９９０年平均水位呈降—升—降的水文过程。与补给区１９８１—１９８８年湿润系数曲线降—升—降密切相关。这一发现，为今后研究地下水动态变化异常提供了依据。文中还对四平井所处的区域水文地质条件和多年实测数据进行分析，结论是四平井年均水位滞后补给区水量变化两年是向斜盆地地下通流缓慢，水交替微弱所致．     

Distributed modeling of monthly air temperatures over the rugged terrain of the Yellow River Basin

Our analyses of the monthly mean air temperature of meteorological stations show that altitude, global solar radiation and surface effective radiation have a significant impact on air temperature. We set up a physically-based empirical model for monthly air temperature simulation. Combined the proposed model with the distributed modeling results of global solar radiation and routine meteorological observation data, we also developed a method for the distributed simulation of monthly air temperatures over rugged terrain. Spatial distribution maps are generated at a resolution of 1 km×1 km for the monthly mean, the monthly mean maximum and the monthly mean minimum air temperatures for the Yellow River Basin. Analysis shows that the simulation results reflect to a considerable extent the macro and local distribution characteristics of air temperature. Cross-validation shows that the proposed model displays good stability with mean absolute bias errors of 0.19°C–0.35°C. Tests carried out on local meteorological station data and case year data show that the model has good spatial and temporal simulation capacity. The proposed model solely uses routine meteorological data and can be applied easily to other regions. Supported by China Meteorological Administration key Project on New Technique Diffusion (Grant No. CMATG2006Z10) and Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters (Grant No. KLME050102)