Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.     

Statistical estimation of a shock center: Slate Islands astrobleme

Statistical models are proposed for the distribution of directions in three dimensions that are thought to point toward a single source. These models are based on the Fisher distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is used to obtain an estimate of position of the source and to provide corre-sponding confidence regions. When applied to shatter cone data from the Slate Islands, northern Lake Superior, the method yields estimates comparable with those obtained by Stesky and Halls (1982), as well as statistically valid confidence regions.     

重磁解释中健全的极大似然法及三维反演

本文介绍了JOAO.B.C.SILVA提出的重磁解释中健全的(Robust)极大似然反演方法的基本原理,讨论了重力二度体非线性几何参数的反演情况,并将该方法扩展到三维重、磁非线性几何参数反演中。重点讨论了场值中有较大随机干扰、有不同类型的地质噪音源影响下的反演结果。理论反演结果表明,该方法有比最小二乘反演方法更接近实际的解,从而提高了解的可靠性,对于重磁局部异常或孤立异常有较好的反演效果。     

山西地震带历史地震序列的统计分析

在工程地震工作中需要知道某地震带或某地区未来100年内的地震活动水平,以便适当选择历史地震的统计时段,从而得到和地震活动水平相适应的不同潜在震源区的各级地震的年平均发生率。 本文利用极值理论、最大熵原理、马尔可夫模型的方法、莫尔纳方法和伯努里模型方法计算了山西地震带未来100年内中强震的年平均发生率、平均重现期大于等于某级地震的个数和发震概率,计算结果表明,山西地震带未来百年内将发生≥6.0级地震3次,发震概率为0.94左右;将发生≥6.5级地震1—2次,发震概率为0.84左右;有可能发生≥7.0级地震,发震概率为0.53左右;发生≥7.5级地震的可能性不大,发震概率为0.32左右;发生≥8.0级地震的可能性很小,发震概率为0.15左右。     

Seismic recognition of local inhomogeneities

A simple method to contour local inhomogeneities using seismic data is proposed. It formalizes an approximate inversion method which is based on the interpretation of local inhomogeneities as making the differences between an actual seismic data set and a previous reference model. It uses the optimal statistical criteria of parameter estimation and recognition and the ray representation of the waves spreading. Any combination of direct, reflected and/or other types of waves may be used as the database. Inhomogeneities, having a size two times above the wavelength of the seismic waves, can be resolved. Laboratory experiments, using ultrasonic waves and analysis of data from field experiments, confirmed the theoretical results. The method can be used to search for ore bodies, kimberlite cubes, oiltraps, etc.     

川滇交界地区构造应力场及强震趋势的统计预测

本文对川滇地区中、强震震源机制解和中小地震平均节面解分析，指出川滇地区现今构造应力场在北西－北西西向压应力作用下，以水平剪切错动为主。同时，采用极值理论、最大信息熵、线性预测和灰色理论等方法综合分析，预测川滇地区未来强震的趋势。     

Some aspects on the variations in depositional flux of excess Thorium-230 in the Central Indian basin during Late Quaternary

Examined in this paper is the tentative history of the depositional flux of²³⁰Th_xs (the unsupported fraction of²³⁰Th scavenged from the overlying water column), for the Late Quaternary period from a sediment core of the Central Indian Basin (CIB). The measured depositional flux of²³⁰Th_xs is found substantially higher than that of the possible theoretical flux from the overlying water column. Historical records, reconstructed from the²³⁰Th_xs chronology suggests that the depositional flux has varied considerably with time, reflecting an enhanced scavenging during the Holocene and the preceding interglacial periods whereas, comparatively lower flux than the predicted one occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period. The average ratio of the measured depositional flux to that of the predicted flux from the overlying water column, indicates that the core site acts as a sink for²³⁰Th_xs and based on the existence of bottom current activity; the²³⁰Th_xs could be the result of focusing of younger sediments. The depositional index (Di) has also been calculated to quantify the extent of lateral supply throughout the core with time. The estimated (Di) suggests that bottom focusing and feeble deposition and/or winnowing processes had occurred and that the former was most prevalent during the Holocene and the preceding interglacials, whereas the latter was observed at the LGM period.     

Characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation in Japan as deduced from frequency distribution of maximum shear strain rate

In order to study characteristics of horizontal crustal strains, we divide the Japanese Islands into 14 tectonic provinces consistent with the suggestion given byMatsuda (1990). We calculate frequency distribution of strain rates using the results of the Precise Control Survey initiated by the Geographical Survey Institute in 1973. This survey is a revision of old first- and second-order triangulation networks by trilateration. The principal axes and principal strains inside all the geodetic triangles are deduced from the comparison of the old triangulation and the new trilateration networks. The maximum shear strain rates are calculated by dividing the accumulated strains with the time intervals. The frequency distribution of strain rates is counted for each tectonic province and for the entire Japanese Islands. It is proved that the maximum shear strain rate with highest frequency ranges from 0.10–0.15 microstrain/a for 4409 data in the Japanese Islands. The mean value of the strain rates throughout the Japanese Islands is deduced to be 0.18 microstrain/a. We also calculated a mean value of strain rates for each tectonic province. Comparison is made between mean geodetic strain rates in the provinces and Quaternary strain rates estimated by geomorphic data. It is found that 0.3–0.4 microstrain/a of the highest order strain rate is now prevailing in the Izu province, the south Fossa-Magna collision zone, and some special provinces along the eastern part of the Japan Sea coast.