GALILEO系统局域完备性监测设计与实现

根据GALILEO系统局域完备性概念和网络RTK的基本理论,建立导航系统局域网络完备性监测理论和算法。算法主要包括网络系统完备性算法和用户完备性算法,内容包括网络误差模型的建立、插值算法的选择、误差改正数完备性指标的计算、完备性指标的验证和用户保护水平的计算等。仿真结果表明,采用网络RTK技术和完备性监测算法,飞机的平面保护水平和垂直保护水平均小于完备性告警门限值,可以满足飞机Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类精密进近的完备性要求,为卫星导航系统在民航中的应用提供完备性理论基础。     

Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.     

鲁23井“动水位”观测的分析

本文介绍了鲁23井“动水位”观测情况。提出了一个分析有泄流的“动水位”的新方法,即把流量换算成水位,以等效静水位来表示“动水位”与流量。由于把“动水位”与流量用一个量来计算,从而为“动水位”观测定量的、统一的分析研究提供了新的方法。这对提高“动水位”井的监测预报地震能力起一定的作用。 本文还以鲁23井“动水位”观测资料为例,利用新方法进行处理的观测分析结果与理论研究结果是一致的。     

Paleohydrology and paleoclimate records in a saline prairie lake core: mineral,isotope and organic indicators

This pilot study examines the potential of obtaining a sedimentary record of paleoenvironmental/climatic/hydrologic conditions for saline Redberry Lake in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The tools are mineralogy, stable isotopes and pigments. The upper meter of an offshore sediment core contains 10 to 20% by weight aragonite (CaCO₃), which apparently precipitated in the water column. The ¹⁸O and ¹³C of the bulk aragonite (corrected for content of detrital calcite) vary by 4 to 5. Enrichment in ¹⁸O in aragonite is significantly correlated with pigment concentrations (chlorophyll a, phaeophytin). The ¹⁸O and pigment data provide evidence for relatively dry and/or warm conditions and high limnetic productivity for the period 2500 to 1500 yrs B.P. After 1500 B.P., the climate was apparently similar to the present, with two episodes of relatively enhanced productivity, dryness and/or warmth, at around 1000 to 900 and 500 to 200 B.P. During the past century, Redberry Lake has decreased approximately 8 m in depth and its salinity has doubled. No clear sedimentary signal was observed in response to these recent hydrologic trends. These changes have not been associated with a significant climate trend in the region, but may have been induced by land use changes in the catchment.This publication is the third of a series of papers presented at the Conference on Sedimentary and Paleolimnological Records of Saline Lakes. This Conference was held August 13–16, 1991 at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada. Dr. Evans is serving as Guest Editor for this series.     

珠穆朗玛峰高程与板块构造运动问题

喜马拉雅山是由印度板块和欧亚板块相碰撞而形成,这已被当代多数有关科学家所认识。一些测量数据也表明喜马拉雅山现在仍在快速隆升。而喜马拉雅山主峰——珠穆朗玛峰的高程的测定,也成为当代地学界的热点。本文结合最新资料对精确测定珠峰高程的一些问题,诸如水准基面、峰顶标志和积雪等进行了讨论。     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

Sedimentary Features of Shallow Ancient River Channels on the Northern Shelf of the South China Sea

Quaternary buried ancient river channels are widespread in the shallow-level sediments of the northern shelf of the South China Sea. The sedimentary sequence mainly of fluvial deposits comprise an important component part of the low-stand system tract and transgressive system tract in the study region. The plannar variation and spatial association of the sedimentary features such as incised valley fillings, deltaic foreset wedges and block slides of shelf-marginal fans reflect the palaeogeographic environment during the fall of the regional sea level in the northern part of the South China Sea. Based on the high-resolution seismic reflection data and gelogical data from boreholes, the present paper makes an integrated interpretation of the Quaternary ancient river channels in the shallow sediments of the study area, studies the sedimentary features of the ancient channels such as their spatial distribution, seismic facies reflection indicators, sedimentary facies and sand -body types, and discusses thei     

城乡一体化渐进式开发及发展模式研究--以成都市为例

城乡一体化成为当前研究的热点问题之一。成都市从2003年开始，在全市范围内开展城乡一体化试点，准确把握城乡一体化的发展模式，是顺利推进城乡一体化发展的重要一环。根据成都市城乡一体化发展的特点，采用回归方法预测了城市化发展水平，并借鉴国际城市和国内沿海城市的发展经验，提出成都市城乡一体化应采取的总体思路和发展模式，结合成都市城市化水平预测结果，提出其分阶段、分步骤实施的时间阶段。