我国大陆及其邻区6级以上地震的“缺震事件”——一种大地震中期预测指标的分析研究

在内陆强震活动的起伏中,6级以上地震的大范围长时间缺震,具有重要的意义。有的研究者已将其作为将发生7级地震前的标志之一。作者系统地清理了1897—1988年8月间中国大陆及其邻区6级以上地震“缺震事件”的始末,较多的震例表明,限定“缺震事件”起止的地震具有中期预报意义。它们在地震构造上的原因可能是代表区域最活跃的破裂,突然处于阻碍、闭锁状态,其持续时间大于10个月,再次发生6级以上地震为解锁,并随即出现新的一轮大地震活动。故可以作为一种大地震中期预测的指标。     

发展中的板块边界:天山-贝加尔活动构造带

亚洲内陆的强地震密集地发生在天山-贝加尔一线,但该处并不存在一条连续的大断裂,学术界对这个问题的认识长期相左。文中分析了这条地震带的时空分布、分区特点、应力状态和活动周期,计算了欧亚大陆的布格重力异常场、均衡重力异常场,反演了上地幔的密度分布和剪切波速分布。发现在这个部位的70~250km的深部有一条北东向的密度、速度陡变带,它是新生代的冷地幔和热地幔的交界带,与浅部构造存在立交关系,对亚洲大陆的现今构造运动和应力场具有重要的控制作用。这个带的地震不同于传统意义上的板缘地震和板内地震,是一种因为深浅构造不同而造成的结构性地震,性质上为大陆内缘地震。文中还就深浅构造的空间立交关系、时间镜像关系进行了讨论,指出在南北地震带和伊朗东侧地震带的立交结构也与上地幔构造有关。天山-贝加尔活动构造带是正在发展中的板块边界,是大陆内部的一个典型构造,北侧为稳定的俄罗斯-西伯利亚次板块,南侧为活动的中国-东南亚次板块。     

Comparison of element abundance between the exposed crust of the continent of China and the global averaged upper continental crust: Constraints on crustal evolution and some speculations

Based on the results of a study of regional element abundance in eastern China and the 1:200 000 geochemical surveys in northern Xinjiang, the element geochemical characteristics of the exposed crust in 23 tectonic units of the continent of China are summarized. Compared with the global average abundance of the upper continental crust, the exposed crust of the continent of China is compositionally more evolved than the upper crust of the island arc, but less evolved than the mature Precambrian Canadian shield. The exposed crust of the North China and Yangtze platforms has a lower SiO₂ content, but markedly higher CaO and MgO contents due to the presence of widespread carbonate strata, which suggests that we should not neglect the contribution of carbonate rocks in the study of the exposed crust and the element abundance of the upper crust. In comparison with two recently published average compositional models of the global upper continental crust, the exposed crust of the continent of China is depleted in Au, Hg, Mo, Sn, and W, which suggests that their abundance in the present global models is overestimated. The exposed crust of the North China platform and the Qinling-Dabieshan fold belt to its south has lower μ(²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb) values (<8), but other regions of the continent of China exhibit much higher μ values, which implies that the low μ feature of the North China platform and its adjacent regions does not have global significance. Considering the apparent lateral variation in composition of the exposed crust for the tectonic units of the continent of China, there is no adequate reason to take the average upper crust compositional model of the North China platform and its adjacent regions as a reliable composition representative for Chinese and global upper continental crust composition. Translated from Geological Bulletin of China, 2005, 24(10–11): 906–915 [译自: 地质通报]     

Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.     

Surface NO and NO2 mixing ratios measured between 30° N and 30° S in the Atlantic region

Surface NO and NO₂ mixing ratios were measured aboard the research vessel Polarstern during the mission ANT VII/1 from 24 September to 5 October 1988. The measurements were taken along the meridian at 30° W in the Atlantic region covering latitudes between 30° N and 30° S. The average mixing ratios were about 12 pptv NO/30 pptv NO₂ in the Northern Hemisphere and about 7 pptv NO/22 pptv NO₂ in the Southern. Elevated mixing ratios of 20 pptv NO/70 pptv NO₂ were found at 12° N (probably due to air masses originating from the surface of West Africa) and in the region of the ITCZ between 8° N and 5° N. Because of probable contamination by the ship, the measured mixing ratios mostly represent upper limits.     

东亚大陆边缘的构造格架及其中-新生代演化

燕山运动在亚洲大陆雏形东缘形成2条北东向的剪切带:郯庐断裂带和长乐-南澳-中央构造线断裂带,晚侏罗世—古近纪早期沿之发生地体/地块的拼贴。系统叙述了各移置地体/地块的主要岩石记录和拼贴时代,据起源分为3类:异地的(包括源自冈瓦纳的和源自盘古大洋的)、半异地的和准原地的;据拼贴位置分为2组:拼贴后基本位于原地的(日本海张开以前) 和发生过向北东错移的。新生代内东亚大陆边缘发生解体,可以台湾岛以北的菲律宾海盆断裂为界将东亚大陆边缘弧分为2段,北段仍处于剪切-拉张中,南段已进入剪切挤压-造山阶段。强调该地区中—新生代演化经历了2个里丁旋回, 形成早白垩世的北东向和新近纪的北东东向2期新生构造。     

中国大陆主要块体现今变形状态的反演研究

本文利用中国大陆的GPS运动速度场,研究了其中的7个亚板块和14个构造块体的变形状态,并做了动力学解释。研究中,构造了一种运动-变形模型来提取观测数据中的变形信息。结果表明:南北构造带东西两侧应变状态表现出显著的差异,西部各亚板块或块体的主应变量值从约4.5×10-8.a-1到约1.3×10-8.a-1,东部则从约3.0×10-.8a-1到约0.4×10-.8a-1,表明东西两部应变量值有较大的落差,并且主压应变方向从西部的北北东向逐步转到东部北东东向。南北构造带表现为其不同段落的各块体的变形趋势和量级都有显著不同。川滇块体是东部与西部的结合部位,变形量较大,主压应变为3.4×10-8.a-1,反映了印度板块向北的推挤在川滇块体造成了较大变形。中国北部地区向东西两个方向运动,塔里木块体、准噶尔块体、天山块体向西,柴达木-祁连山块体、阿拉善块体向东。这种推挤力和太平洋板块阻碍、遏制作用,造成了华北块体、鄂尔多斯块体以拉张为主的应变和逆时针旋转。     

西昆仑北缘主乌鲁克锰矿床地质特征及成因探讨

主乌鲁克锰矿床位于西昆仑北缘晚古生代陆缘裂谷恰尔隆弧盆系的北部,含锰层位为下石炭统他龙群细碎屑岩夹碳酸盐岩,锰矿层为黑色泥质碳质页岩夹铁锰质泥晶灰岩。锰矿体严格受地层的控制,呈NWW向展布,延伸较为稳定,规模较大,共见有13条锰矿体,其中有3个矿体较大构成主矿体;锰矿石以原生菱锰矿为主体,氧化矿石不多。该矿床与近年发现的玛尔坎苏地区锰矿床既有相似之处,又有明显不同,矿床类型为在深海-半深海陆缘裂谷环境中形成的与黑色碳质页岩有关的沉积型锰矿床,锰矿的成矿时代为早石炭世。由于下石炭统他龙群是西昆仑地区新发现的含锰层位,具有较大的找矿潜力,应加强矿床外围及深部的找矿工作。     

中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究

中国大陆西部及邻区是全球 8级大地震最为活跃的地区之一。自 180 0年以来该区板内 8级大地震共发生了 16次 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8.1级大地震 (36 .1°N ,90 .9°E)是在 195 7年蒙古 8.3级大地震之后 4 4a发生的。研究表明该区 8级大地震的活动过程可能存在相对平静 (1812— 190 2年 )和相对活跃 (190 3— 195 7年 )交替的幕式或轮回过程的性质。 195 7年蒙古地震之后可能是一次新的轮回开始 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西地震是新轮回的第二次地震 ,按照轮回过程中事件发生频度是时间的指数函数关系的假定 ,该区下一次 8级大地震可能约在 2 0 2 6年发生。如果假定该过程相当接近泊松过程。那么 ,在 2 0 0 5 ,2 0 10年和 2 0 15年前至少发生一次 8级大地震的泊松概率 ,分别是 0 .2 9,0 .5 3和 0 .70。     

面向海上目标搜索任务的多无人机协同航路优化

提出了一种面向多无人机(unmanned aerial vehicle,UAV)协同搜索海上目标任务的航路优化方法。首先,分析多无人机协同航路优化问题的基本要素模型。然后,在对各UAV独立维护的目标概率图信息进行探测更新的基础上,采用状态预测一致性算法实现目标概率图信息的快速融合。最后,同时考虑局部搜索收益与未来搜索收益,采用分布式模型预测控制(distributed model predictive control,DMPC)方法优化各UAV的搜索航路。仿真结果表明,本研究提出的方法具有较高的搜索效率,可有效应用于海上目标的快速搜索任务,具有重要的应用价值。