Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪与雨量计观测降水的一致性分析

利用南京市气象局在江宁布设的激光雨滴谱仪、称重式雨量计和翻斗式雨量计,整理2014—2018年期间2590h的降水观测资料,重点分析了Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪对降雨和降雪的测量性能。结果表明,与称重式雨量计结果相比,翻斗式雨量计测量的降水时数和累积降水量均偏低,激光雨滴谱仪测量的降雨时数偏低,但累计降水量偏高15.07%;激光雨滴谱仪能够有效跟踪降水强度的变化,但在雨强较小(2.5mm·h~(-1))时对雨强略有低估,在降雨强度较大(≥2.5mm·h~(-1))时对雨强有不同程度的高估,最大可达近50%,而且雨强越大,一致性就越差;翻斗式雨量计无法有效测量降雪;激光雨滴谱仪则可以有效跟踪降雪的变化情况,但是受到测量原理的限制,对等效降水强度则有不同程度的高估。从5年数据来看,没有发现随着激光雨滴谱仪安装时间的增长,性能变差的问题。     

Thermodynamic Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones with RapidIntensity Change over the Coastal Waters of China

In order to investigate the different thermodynamic mechanisms between rapid intensifying (RI) and rapid weakening (RW) tropical cyclones (TCs),the thermodynamic structures of two sets of composite TCs are analyzed based on the complete-form vertical vorticity tendency equation and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.Each composite is composed of five TCs,whose intensities change rapidly over the coastal waters of China.The results show that the maximum apparent heating source Q1 exists in both the upper and lower troposphere near the RI TC center,and Q1 gets stronger at the lower level during the TC intensification period.But for the RW TC,the maximum Q1 exists at the middle level near the TC center,and Q1 gets weaker while the TC weakens.The maximum apparent moisture sink Q2 lies in the mid troposphere.Q2 becomes stronger and its peak-value height rises while TC intensifies,and vice versa.The increase of diabatic heating with height near the TC center in the mid-upper troposphere and the increase of vertical inhomogeneous heating near the TC center in the lower troposphere are both favorable to the TCs' rapid intensification; otherwise,the intensity of the TC decreases rapidly.     

ANALYSIS OF LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998

1INTRODUCTIONLocatingatthesoutheasternpartofAsia,theSouthChinaSea(SCS)linkstheIndianOceanandwesternPacificandimmediatelyborderswiththeSouthAsiamonsoonregion.ItisanimportantlocationinwhichtheEastAsiamonsoonsysteminteractswiththeIndianOceanoneandamostdirectsourceofmoistureforthesubtropicalmonsoonsysteminEastAsia.TheSCSmonsoonanomaliescandirectlyaffectonthetemporal-spatialdistributionofprecipitationinthesouthofChinaandtheChangjiangRivervalleysothatseriousfloods/droughtsarecaused.Com…     

Interactions between the 30–60 day oscillation,the walker circulation and the convective activities in the tropical western pacific and their relations to the interannual oscillation

In this paper, interactions between the 30-60 day oscillation, the Walker circulation and the convective activities in the tropical western Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer are analyzed by using the observed data of wind fields and high-cloud amounts for the period from 1980 to 1989.The analyzed results show that the 30-60 day oscillation (hereafter called LFO) may be largely affected by the convective activities in the tropical western Pacific. The LFO in the tropical western Pacific during the strong convective activities around the Philippines stronger than those during the weak convective activities around the Philippines. Moreover, in the case of strong convective activities around the Philippines, the LFO in the tropical west-ern Pacific and tropical eastern Indian Ocean generally propagates westward, and it is intensified by the LFO with a westward propagating center of maximum oscillation from the east to 140oE. However, in the case of weak convective activities around the Philippines, the LFO gradually becomes stronger with a eastward propagating center of maximum oscillation from the eastern Indian Ocean to the tropical western Pacific.Corresponding to the 30-60 day oscillation, the Walker circulation is also in oscillation over the tropical Pacific and its circulation cell seems to shift gradually westward from the tropical western Pacific to the tropical eastern In-dian Ocean with strong convective activities around the Philippines. This may maintain the intensification of convective activities there. However, during the weak convective activities around the Philippines, the Walker circula-tion gradually moves eastward and an ascending flow may appear in the equatorial central Pacific. This may cause convective activities to be intensified over the equatorial central Pacific.The analyzed results also show that the LFO in the tropical western Pacific and East Asia may be associated with the interannual oscillation of the SST anomaly in the tropical western Pacific.     

热带大气10～20天振荡的大气环流模式数值模拟

利用大气环流模式对热带大气10～20天振荡进行了数值模拟研究，其结果同观测资料分析基本一致。模式资料的功率谱及动能的分析表明，10～20天振荡确实比30～60天振荡更突出地存在于热带大气中。同热带大气30～60天振荡的结构有些不同，对于在热带10～20天振荡，除纬向1波外，纬向2波也很明显；流动的斜压结构特征欠佳；系统以较快速度沿赤道西移。暖SST事件对热带大气10～20天振荡的影响也进行了模拟，对结果的比较分析表明，暖STT将使10～20天大气振荡减弱，使其结构更趋正压性。     

风速等级标准与2016年6月23日阜宁龙卷强度估计

文章回顾了不同的风速等级标准,对导致重大人员伤亡的2016年6月23日江苏省盐城市阜宁县龙卷灾害和2015年6月1日导致“东方之星”客轮翻沉事件的下击暴流灾害进行了较详细的强度评估,探讨了已有等级标准存在的问题,给出了未来工作展望。基于详细的现场调查资料,评估江苏阜宁龙卷为EF4级,而导致“东方之星”客轮翻沉事件的下击暴流仅为EF1级;对这两个典型灾害个例的强度估计展示了EF等级与F等级之间的差异;但阜宁龙卷导致的每一个受灾点的灾害等级还需要进一步详细评估。由于建筑物结构、植被自身状况、相应环境和致灾机制的复杂性,风灾强度估计必然存在一定的不确定性,且龙卷由于其复杂涡旋动力结构、气压空间分布和卷起的飞射碎片作用等因素使得强度估计的不确定性较下击暴流更大。提高风速等级评估的客观性、普适性、准确性、一致性和便捷性是评估工作的必然需求。未来还需发展综合考虑强度分布、路径长度和宽度、持续时间和移动速度等的风灾等级标准,从而为全面评估下击暴流或者龙卷的致灾性提供基础。     

Mean climatic characteristics in high northern latitudes in an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model

Emphasizing the model‘s ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, resultsfrom an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model cansimulate the main characteristics of annual mean global sea surface temperature and sea level pressurewell, but the extent of ice coverage produced in the Southern Hemisphere is not large enough. The maindistribution characteristics of simulated sea level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa in high northernlatitudes agree well with their counterparts in the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the model can reproducethe Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode successfully. The simulated seasonal variation of sea ice in the NorthernHemisphere is rational and its main distribution features in winter agree well with those from observations.But the ice concentration in the sea ice edge area close to the Eurasian continent in the inner Arctic Oceanis much larger than the observation. There are significant interannual variation signals in the simulated seaice concentration in winter in high northern latitudes and the most significant area lies in the GreenlandSea, followed by the Barents Sea. All of these features agree well with the results from observations.     

Ranking Regional Drought Events in China for 1960--2009

The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index (CDI) to 722 stations in mainland China. Droughts frequently happened in a zone extended from Southwest China to the Yellow River, North China, and the southwestern part of Northeast China, with two centers of high frequency in North China and Southwest China. In Southwest and South China, droughts tend to happen during the winter. In North China and along the Yellow River, droughts mainly occur during the winter and during May–June. During the past 50 years, the geographical distribution of site drought events showed high frequencies (0.9–1.3 times per year) in the upper Yellow River basin and North China, comparing with moderate frequencies (0.6–0.9 times per year) in Southwest China and the southwestern part of Northeast China and with lower frequencies over the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. And the frequencies increased over mainland China except for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A regional drought (RD) event is a widespread and persistent event that covers at least five adjacent sites and lasts for at least 10 days. There were 252 RD events in the past 50 years—five times per year. Most RD events lasted for <100 days and covered <100 stations, but the longest and largest RD event lasted for 307 days from 6 September 1998 to 9 July 1999 and covered 327 stations from North to Southwest China.     

湿斜压性与热带气旋强度突变

应用湿位涡方程和倾斜涡度发展理论 ,研究了热带气旋内部相当位温结构的演变与其强度突变的可能关系 ,并用一套高分辨率的模拟资料对所得结论进行验证。结果表明 ,由于热带气旋眼壁附近等相当位温面陡立 ,湿斜压性变化所激发的倾斜涡度发展是引起该区域垂直涡度突然增大或突然减小的主要原因。当热带气旋中心附近大部分区域的垂直涡度显著增长时 ,热带气旋就会在整体上表现为爆发性或迅速发展。最后还据此对同心双眼结构的出现和消失如何影响热带气旋强度变化进行了探讨。