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21.
南海是热带气旋活动较为频繁的地区之一。该地区因其独特的地理环境和复杂的热带大气环流系统,在热带气旋预报工作上存在一定的困难。本文在分析一些气象图表资料的基础上,对2002年第20号热带风暴(米克拉)的形成、发展及消亡进行了探讨和研究。主要从形成的背景环流,气旋的结构等方面入手,总结出一些该气旋所具备韵特有流场,从而为以后的南海自生热带气旋预报工作积累一定经验。 相似文献
22.
本文主要对山东半岛东部、北部及渤海海峡地区的地方性天气-冷流低云,作了初步的分析。着重分析产生这种低云的环流特点及殊地理环境,分析归纳出这种低云的预测方法及判据。 相似文献
23.
山东全新世滨海软土与工程地质灾害的研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
吴建政 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》1995,15(3):43-54
山东全新世滨海软土分布在海湾、泻湖、河口区,厚度1-10m。海湾、泻湖软土为淤泥、淤泥质土,陆源物质供应丰富的浅水区,软土颗粒偏粗,强度相对较高,触变性对建筑物危害性大,陆源物质供应少的深水区,软土颗粒偏细,低强度、高压缩性、沉降变形大和蠕变性是危及建筑物稳定的主要因素。海湾、泻湖软土位于地下水位下,具低透水性,掩埋后短期不易排水固结,软土下为强度较高的冲积物,对一般建筑物,利用强夯、粉喷搅拌桩、 相似文献
24.
25.
广东省五华县地质灾害形成特征及防治对策 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
罗迎新 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2008,19(3):96-101
五华县主要地质灾害类型有滑坡、崩塌、地面塌陷、水土流失等。其中以滑坡、崩塌为主,多分布在东南、南部花岗岩区、北部花岗岩风化土区等广大中低山及丘陵区,具有点多面广,灾害点个体规模小,稳定性差,活动频繁,地质灾害发育呈明显的地域性与季节性分布等特点。五华县地质灾害的形成与发生是多种致灾因素相互作用的结果。地层岩性是其形成的内在要素,它在一定程度上决定着地质灾害的发育程度与类型;地形地貌与植被是地质灾害形成的外在条件,它制约着崩、滑、塌等致灾地质作用的形成;大气降雨是地质灾害形成与发生的激发因素,决定着地质灾害发生的速度和时间;人类工程活动是影响地质灾害形成与发生的最主要、最直接的因素。对地质灾害的防治应采用避让、预防、监测及治理措施,做到避让与治理结合,以群测群防为基本手段,点状灾害以工程治理与生物防治为主;面状灾害以生物防治为主;采用点、面结合综合治理的方法。 相似文献
26.
邹平铜矿处于齐河-广饶深大断裂带南部的邹平火山岩盆地中,形成于破火山口火山通道充填的石英正长闪长岩岩颈中央上部,包括伟晶岩型铜矿和细脉浸染状斑铜矿床两种类型。前者矿体较小,但品位高;后者品位较低,但规模中等。含矿石英正长闪长岩等密度小、磁性弱,故在火山岩系中呈现高背景重力场上的重力低和杂乱高磁场背景中的低负异常,即“重磁同低”,且高极化。重磁同低异常区和高极化率异常带,是本区寻找铜矿的有利部位。 相似文献
27.
28.
The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash flows 总被引:6,自引:6,他引:0
Ash flow deposits, containing up to 1000 km3 of material, have been produced by some of the largest volcanic eruptions known. Ash flows propagate several tens of kilometres
from their source vents, produce extensive blankets of ash and are able to surmount topographic barriers hundreds of metres
high. We present and test a new model of the motion of such flows as they propagate over a near horizontal surface from a
collapsing fountain above a volcanic vent. The model predicts that for a given eruption rate, either a slow (10–100 m/s) and
deep (1000–3000 m) subcritical flow or a fast (100–200 m/s) and shallow (500–1000 m) supercritical flow may develop. Subcritical
ash flows propagate with a nearly constant volume flux, whereas supercritical flows entrain air and become progressively more
voluminous. The run-out distance of such ash flows is controlled largely by the mass of air mixed into the collapsing fountain,
the degree of fragmentation and the associated rate of loss of material into an underlying concentrated depositional system,
and the mass eruption rate. However, in supercritical flows, the continued entrainment of air exerts a further important control
on the flow evolution. Model predictions show that the run-out distance decreases with the mass of air entrained into the
flow. Also, the mass of ash which may ascend from the flow into a buoyant coignimbrite cloud increases as more air is entrained
into the flow. As a result, supercritical ash flows typically have shorter runout distances and more ash is elutriated into
the associated coignimbrite eruption columns. We also show that one-dimensional, channellized ash flows typically propagate
further than their radially spreading counterparts.
As a Plinian eruption proceeds, the erupted mass flux often increases, leading to column collapse and the formation of pumiceous
ash flows. Near the critical conditions for eruption column collapse, the flows are shed from high fountains which entrain
large quantities of air per unit mass. Our model suggests that this will lead to relatively short ash flows with much of the
erupted material being elutriated into the coignimbrite column. However, if the mass flux subseqently increases, then less
air per unit mass is entrained into the collapsing fountain, and progressively larger flows, which propagate further from
the vent, will develop.
Our model is consistent with observations of a number of pyroclastic flow deposits, including the 1912 eruption of Katmai
and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. The model suggests that many extensive flow sheets were emplaced from eruptions with mass
fluxes of 109–1010 kg/s over periods of 103–105 s, and that some indicators of flow "mobility" may need to be reinterpreted. Furthermore, in accordance with observations,
the model predicts that the coignimbrite eruption columns produced from such ash flows rose between 20 and 40 km.
Received: 25 August 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996 相似文献
29.
Erik Rüttener Juan José Egozcue Dieter Mayer-Rosa Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178
Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law. 相似文献
30.
Seismic hazard of Egypt 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M
max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas. 相似文献