2015年广东开汛前后旱涝急转特征及成因分析

利用1961—2015年广东86站3—5月逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA的Hysplit后向轨迹模式资料和海温资料,分析了2015年广东开汛前后旱涝异常特征,旱涝急转前后的大气环流和水汽条件转变及成因。(1) 2015年5月第1候广东发生了严重的旱涝急转事件,旱涝急转前全省严重干旱,旱涝急转后广东大部地区降水异常偏多。(2) 旱涝急转前后,500 hPa中高纬度由“两槽两脊”转为“两脊一槽”和“两槽一脊”,副高持续加强,广东地区高层辐散和低层辐合加强,地面由冷空气控制广东转为冷暖空气在广东交汇;水汽输送通道由北部湾和长江中下游地区转为南海南部和中南半岛南部海面,广东低层水汽净流入增加。 (3) 黑潮区、北太平洋中部、Ni?o3、Ni?o4区及印度洋和南海的海温异常增暖造成了旱涝急转前后大气环流和水汽的转变。     

多目标的地质大调查 ——21世纪勘查地球化学的战略选择

21世纪勘查地球化学面临发展问题.2001～2005年勘查地球化学以国家其基础性公益性地质工作为主导,以经济社会发展需求为动力,以资源与环境并重为方针,实施多目标的地质大调查,取得一系列重要成果,标志勘查地球化学进入全面发展阶段.这是勘查地球化学的战略选择.在现代科学技术取得最新成就起点上,构建理论体系、方法体系和质量体系,在各项工作中采取科学态度和积极有效措施,推动勘查地球化学不断达到新的高度.     

Remobilization of Highly Crystalline Felsic Magma by Injection of Mafic Magma: Constraints from the Middle Sixth Century Eruption at Haruna Volcano, Honshu, Japan

The latest eruption of Haruna volcano at Futatsudake took placein the middle of the sixth century, starting with a Plinianfall, followed by pyroclastic flows, and ending with lava domeformation. Gray pumices found in the first Plinian phase (lowerfall) and the dome lavas are the products of mixing betweenfelsic (andesitic) magma having 50 vol. % phenocrysts and maficmagma. The mafic magma was aphyric in the initial phase, whereasit was relatively phyric during the final phase. The aphyricmagma is chemically equivalent to the melt part of the phyricmafic magma and probably resulted from the separation of phenocrystsat their storage depth of 15 km. The major part of the felsicmagma erupted as white pumice, without mixing and heating priorto the eruption, after the mixed magma (gray pumice) and heatedfelsic magma (white pumice) of the lower fall deposit. Althoughthe mafic magma was injected into the felsic magma reservoir(at 7 km depth), part of the product (lower fall ejecta) precedederuption of the felsic reservoir magma, as a consequence ofupward dragging by the convecting reservoir of felsic magma.The mafic magma injection made the nearly rigid felsic magmaerupt, letting low-viscosity mixed and heated magmas open theconduit and vent. Indeed the lower fall white pumices preservea record of syneruptive slow ascent of magma to 2 km depth,probably associated with conduit formation. KEY WORDS: high-crystallinity felsic magma; magma plumbing system; multistage magma mixing; upward dragging of injected magma; vent opening by low-viscosity magma     

湘南黄沙坪多金属矿床花岗质岩浆性质及演化对成矿差异的约束

黄沙坪矿床是湘南地区最大的铅锌矿床,除铅、锌外,可供开采利用的矿种还包括钨、锡、钼、铜、铁、硫等。矿区内岩浆作用复杂、成矿元素多样、矿化类型丰富,是研究湘南地区斑岩-矽卡岩-热液脉型Cu多金属与矽卡岩W-Sn多金属复合成矿作用的理想对象。为查明矿区Cu多金属与W多金属复合成矿机理,本文在已有研究的基础上,从岩石学、矿物学及元素地球化学等方面分别对区内石英斑岩和花岗斑岩这两类成矿岩体开展了系统研究。结果表明,两类岩体具有相似的源区特征,但在源区性质及其演化过程方面仍存在差异:石英斑岩侵位深度更浅,具有相对较高的氧逸度和较低的形成温度;而花岗斑岩则侵位相对更深,具有更高的形成温度和极高的分异演化程度、更低的氧逸度。这些地球化学特征差异可能是制约石英斑岩成铜矿而花岗斑岩成钨矿的重要原因。     

Simulating regional grain yield distributions to support agricultural drought risk assessment

Most food insecure countries do not have long-term records of either agricultural drought or the impacts of agricultural drought on food security. This lack of data impedes famine early warning and crop insurance programs. One recent paper addresses this issue by using resampled rainfall data, a basic crop yield model, and linear regression to simulate distributions of grain yield. We expand on this process by incorporating flexible regression models and defining a set of criteria to test model performance. We also examine how well a model fit on national data can emulate yield distributions at regions within a country. We find that models with spatially varying coefficients are better able to simulate distributions than basic linear regression models. Generalized additive models also perform well but do not offer substantial improvement over varying coefficient models. We also find that simulated yield distributions are most accurate in higher producing regions that have lower within region diversity of yields.     

海南冬种瓜菜气象灾害风险评估与区划

基于自然灾害风险理论,利用海南省18个站点气象资料、瓜菜生产和社会经济要素资料,通过灾情反演,构建苗期湿涝、冬季寒害和春季干旱致灾等级指标。综合致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力,进行瓜菜气象灾害的综合风险分析与区划。结果表明:苗期湿涝危险性从西南至东北增加,春季干旱危险性东西高、中间低;西瓜寒害危险性从中部向两边减小,豇豆和丝瓜寒害危险性从南往北加重,辣椒寒害危险性从东南到西北增加;苗期湿涝孕灾环境敏感性从中部山区向沿海和平原地区增加,春季干旱和冬季寒害趋势相反;瓜菜灾损风险和防灾能力在区域上存在明显差异;西瓜、豇豆和辣椒气象灾害综合风险总体趋势一致,高风险区集中在海南东部地区;丝瓜气象灾害综合风险高值区在北部地区。     

Using isotopes to understand landscape-scale connectivity in a groundwater-dominated,lowland catchment under drought conditions

The Demnitzer Millcreek catchment (DMC), is a 66 km² long-term experimental catchment located 50 km SE of Berlin. Monitoring over the past 30 years has focused on hydrological and biogeochemical changes associated with de-intensification of farming and riparian restoration in the low-lying landscape dominated by rain-fed farming and forestry. However, the hydrological function of the catchment, which is closely linked to nutrient fluxes and highly sensitive to climatic variability, is still poorly understood. In the last 3 years, a prolonged drought period with below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures has resulted in marked hydrological change. This caused low soil moisture storage in the growing season, agricultural yield losses, reduced groundwater recharge, and intermittent streamflows in parts of an increasingly disconnected channel network. This paper focuses on a two-year long isotope study that sought to understand how different parts of the catchment affect ecohydrological partitioning, hydrological connectivity and streamflow generation during drought conditions. The work has shown the critical importance of groundwater storage in sustaining flows, basic in-stream ecosystem services and the dominant influence of vegetation on groundwater recharge. Recharge was much lower and occurred during a shorter window of time in winter under forests compared to grasslands. Conversely, groundwater recharge was locally enhanced by the restoration of riparian wetlands and storage-dependent water losses from the stream to the subsurface. The isotopic variability displayed complex emerging spatio-temporal patterns of stream connectivity and flow duration during droughts that may have implications for in-stream solute transport and future ecohydrological interactions between landscapes and riverscapes. Given climate projections for drier and warmer summers, reduced and increasingly intermittent streamflows are very likely not just in the study region, but in similar lowland areas across Europe. An integrated land and water management strategy will be essential to sustaining catchment ecosystem services in such catchment systems in future.     

A simple mechanism for the climatological midsummer drought along the Pacific coast of Central America

The global distribution, seasonal evolution, and underlying mechanisms for the climatological midsummer drought (MSD) are investigated using a suite of relatively high spatial and temporal resolution station observations and reanalysis data with particular focus on the Pacific coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Although the MSD of Central America stands out in terms of spatial scale and coherence, it is neither unique to the Greater Caribbean Region (GCR) nor necessarily the strongest MSD on Earth based on an objective analysis of several global precipitation data sets. A mechanism for the MSD is proposed that relates the latitudinal dependence of the two climatological precipitation maxima to the biannual crossing of the solar declination (SD), driving two peaks in convective instability and hence rainfall. In addition to this underlying local mechanism, a number of remote processes tend to peak during the apex of the MSD, including the North American monsoon, the Caribbean low-level jet, and the North Atlantic subtropical high which may also act to suppress rainfall along the Pacific coast of Central America and generate interannual variability in the strength or timing of the MSD. However, our findings challenge the existing paradigm that the MSD owes its existence to a precipitation-suppressing mechanism. Rather, aided by the analysis of higher-temporal resolution precipitation records and considering variations in latitude, we suggest the MSD is essentially the result of one precipitation-enhancing mechanism occurring twice.     

DIE TECHNISCHE UND WIRTSCHAFTLICHE BEDEUTUNG DER GLETSCHER / The Role of Glaciers in the Economy and Technical Development of Alpine Countries

English Summary

In former times the inhabitants of alpine regions looked upon glaciers as an uncanny and dangerous realm which they avoided as far as possible. It was only around the middle of the 18th Century that man became gradually aware of the beauty of the mountains, and approximately at the same time science started to take an interest in glaciers. Most of the questions raised in this field have been solved since. However, even in our times it is not sufficiently well known that glaciers, which are responsible for the characteristics of the regime of alpine rivers, are interesting not only from the point of view of physical geography, but are also of great importance for the economy and technical development of alpine countries.

Torrents which are fed by the melted ice, carry great quantities of water at periods when other streams frequently run dry. Nevertheless, in the terms of hydraulic power economy, it would be an over simplification to consider glaciers as reservoirs. It must not be forgotten, that in the Alps precipitation is highest during the summer months, and consequently that rivers carry more water during that season than during any other period of the year. The presence of glaciers adds to the extreme situation, and therefore the equalisation of seasonal differences in the runoff of glaciers necessary for power economy requires more storage capacity than is needed for catchment areas without glaciers.

On the other hand, there are also arid zones in the Alps, where conditions are entirely different. I am thinking of the deep valleys, running east to west, which are screened from rain by high mountain ranges, as for instance in the Wallis, the Vintschgau, parts of Western Tyrol and the Engadine. In these valleys it is particularly the slopes open to the south and exposed to constant insolation which show the typical characteristics and vegetation of arid zones. Precipitation during the growing season is often far less than the 600mm which is considered as the minimum needed for most types of cultivation, so much so that artificial irrigation has been practised for many generations. Whenever possible, the aqueducts, often very primitive, are fed by the glacier runoff of the large mountain massifs which never run dry. In some parts of the Wallis and in the South and West Tyrol, the water had to be conducted long distances and across difficult terrain; the construction of these primitive aqueducts was therefore a truly difficult task, as financial and technical resources available for that purpose were very inadequate.

This additional water-supply produced by glaciers in summer has a very definite effect on the large rivers rising in the Alps and flowing down in all directions, to name a few of them, the Rhine, the Inn, the Drave, the Rhône, the Adige etc. Not a single one of them has a low water level record in summer equal to that of the Weser or the Elbe and many other rivers of Central Europe which are not fed by glaciers. This low water level in summer has naturally a very detrimental effect on the navigation of rivers, and also on their capacity to replenish ground-water resources. The abundance of glacier runoff assures a fairly steady supply of water to the first mentioned rivers even in their lower courses, a fact which is of special importance for hydraulic economy in general and for hydraulic energy economy in particular. The rich potential of hydraulic energy in Jugoslavia, for instance, suffers from the fact that the quantity of water carried by the karst-rivers is considerably smaller in summer than it is in winter. The river Drave with its tributaries fed by glacier runoff from the Alps in Carynthia and East Tyrol, is practically the only river in Jugoslavia used to a considerable extent for the production of hydraulic power. It carries even more water in summer than during other seasons. This river, which serves to equalise the seasonal production of energy is therefore most valuable for the power economy of the country.

Short-term changes in the size of glaciers which are the subject of our present symposium, are causing the development of glacier lakes of which there exist several types. Most dangerous are those in larger valleys, caused by the tongue of a side glacier forming a dam, for instance here in the Ötztal Alps, at the Gurgler and at the Rofener Eissee near Vent. Other lakes develop in the basins left behind by the tongues of former glaciers. Water suddenly released from glacier lakes due to a breach of the ice or moraine dam, has frequently been the cause of terrible catastrophes. Attempts have therefore been made to protect the valleys against floods by the construction of flood reservoirs suitably situated below the glacier. An example of this type is the reservoir dam which the Austrian torrent-control authorities constructed in the Martellvalley (South Tyrol) in 1898/99 to prevent damage from an eventual breach in the banks of a glacier lake which had developed. Nowadays the large reservoirs constructed for hydro-electric power provide even greater protection.

Reservoirs for power plants in the Alps, which are created by the construction of large dams, require the existence of basins hollowed out by former glaciers during a long geological period. Outside of the glaciated areas, such basins can generally be created only by artificially blocking up a river-valley. This type of reservoir can be easily distinguished from that described above by its entirely different outline.

It must finally be remembered that the large load of sediment carried by glacial rivers has its economic and technical problems. Although it will probably take centuries to fill up the largest hydro-electric reservoirs, or even to considerably reduce their storage capacity, there are many smaller lakes in which this development will take no more than decades. Deposits of mud, for instance in the reservoir of the Margaritze, in the “Tauernfraftwerke” area had, after a mere decade accumulated to the extent that the power-plant administration had to install a floating suction dredger to remove at least part of the sediment. In this connection it was, however, important not to overload the river downstream with mud to such a degree as to cause damage to the fish population. Careful observation was needed to find out to what extent the river was able to cope with the artificial inflow of mud, and to follow the dispersion of the peak values of the suspesion load.

Nowadays waters destined for the generation of hydro-electric power are collected at the highest possible altitudes. An interesting example of the application of modern methods of this type is the collection of the runoff from beneath the Brandner Ferner in the Silvretta from where it is conveyed to the Lünersee. As a water intake on the surface was impossible due to the difficult terrain, a tunnel had to be driven through the rock bed of the glacier and there, immediately underneath it, in an ice cave, the water flows into a cage consisting of strong steel girders. This cage retains the large bolders, while the water from the bottom of the glacier runs off into the tunnel.     

The nature of rainfall in the main drainage sub-basins of Uganda

Abstract

A study of rainfall trends and temporal variations within seven sub-basins of Uganda spanning from 1940 to 2009 has been made. Rainfall climatologies are constructed from observational data, using 36 station records which reflect hydroclimatic conditions. Long-term changes in rainfall characteristics were determined by non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Sen’s T tests), coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index and drought severity index. Magnitude of change was estimated by applying Sen’s estimator of slope. Decadal variability of rainfall with marked seasonal cycles is evident. Temporal variability of drought patterns is detected. Variations in annual rainfall are low with no significant trends observed in the main drainage sub-basins. Significant trends occur in October, November, December and January. A noticeable decrease in the annual total rainfall was observed mostly in northwestern and southwestern sub-basins. Rainfall trend in the second normal of June–July–August (JJA) was decreasing in all the main drainage sub-basins.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Yue

Citation Nsubuga, F.W.N., Botai, O.J., Olwoch, J.M., Rautenbach, C.J.deW., Bevis, Y., and Adetunji, A.O., 2014. The nature of rainfall in the main drainage sub-basins of Uganda. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 278–299.