Analysis of the Structure of the Temperature Field in Relation to the Persistent Snowy and Cold Weather in South China in Early 2008

In early 2008, a persistent cold and snowy weather process occurred in South China. Severe freezing rain (FR) and blizzards hit the region, which was not seen in the past 50 years. This work studied the disaster at its most severe stage (25 January-2 February 2008) and addressed the reason for the occurrence of three rainfall types and particularly the FR that resulted from the temperature inversion and low surface temperature. Evidence suggests that the south-to-north distribution of rainfall, FR, and snowfall was determined by the surface temperature conditions and the stratification features of the northward-tilting front in the mid-lower troposphere over different parts of South China. Under the above frontal conditions,the temperature inversion in the mid-lower troposphere and the cold ground temperature took place and the FR formed. The temperature layer (> 0°C) inside the inversion in this region depended on necessary intensity, depth, and height of the inversion, i.e., the depth of the inversion can be neither too thick or low nor too thin or high. For those too thick and low (too thin and high) inversions, the precipitation fell as rain (snow and ice pellets). In the early 2008 case, the 0-6°C layer occupied 650-850 hPa, below which was the sub-freezing level with temperature < 0°C. With the presence of the low sub-freezing level, FR or ice damage could occur even at the 0-1°C surface temperature condition. Besides, even in the absence of a suitable inversion, a low ground temperature might have made ice-covered water and supercooled drops or water from melted ice freeze rapidly into ice at the surface, and the ground ice maintained and accumulated,which resulted in the severe disaster.     

Forecasting Quasi-stationary Front Rainstorm in Southeast China Using Synthetically Multilevel Analog Forecast Technology

The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.     

我国太阳日总辐射计算方法的研究

对全国23个站点的日照时数、日最高气温、日最低气温、太阳日总辐射量等气象要素实测资料进行统计分析,利用回归分析法建立了以日照百分率和气温日较差为主要相关因子的各地日总辐射估算模型。结果表明：除了高原站拉萨以外,推算模型的复相关系数均介于0．80～0．93之间,拟合效果较好。在春、夏季使用独立的季节模型有一定的必要性,该方法适用于我国各地太阳日总辐射的推算,     

某新建铁路复杂长隧道岩层地质与CSAMT特征

分析了多种地球物理勘探方法在复杂长隧道探测中的优缺点,指出了CSAMT（可控源音频大地电磁）法在工作条件极其困难,地形复杂,交通不便,要求勘探深度大的隧洞勘察中,是一种行之有效的物探手段.以较高的显示度列举了CSAMT法在本区探测成功的实例.就隧道主要特殊岩层膏溶角砾岩的地球物理异常特征进行了详尽分析,给出了CSAMT法在本区隧道结构面综合地质解释结果.     

合成平均图分析在2003年高温天气预报中的应用

大气环流异常对中短期天气变化有着重要影响。利用数值预报产品制作特征要素的合成平均图,是准定量分析前期大气环流异常对中短期天气变化造成影响的有效途径之一,也是对数值预报产品进行合理有效解释应用的一个重要方向。通过利用欧洲中心格点资料制作预报和历史同期合成平均图,结合本地经验指标进行分析比较,并根据临近天气形势进行中短期预报订正,是2003年广西持续性大范围高温天气过程成功预报的关键。     

适于深部取心钻探井超高温聚磺钻井液体系研究

东北松辽盆地强水敏泥岩、泥页岩、凝灰岩发育,地温梯度高达4.1℃/100m。深井钻进过程中易出现井壁失稳、钻井液抗温能力不足等复杂情况,研制深部取心钻进配套用超高温钻井液具有迫切的工程需要。通过造浆土、抗温抗盐处理剂、防塌剂等处理剂优选及复配试验,完成了抗高温聚磺钻井液配方设计。钠土与凹凸棒土复配保证了高温钻井液具有合适的粘土胶粒浓度,处理剂优选在满足良好护胶性能的基础上充分考虑了其粘度效应。综合测试结果表明,该聚磺钻井液在230℃条件下连续加热滚动24h后性能稳定,且具备良好的抑制性、润滑性及一定的抗污染能力。在东北松辽盆地某深井连续取心钻进过程中取得了良好的应用效果。     

河南老代仗沟铅锌矿床原生晕异常的赋存规律及找矿意义

老代仗沟矿床为伏牛山岩浆期后热液充填成因的脉状铅锌矿的代表性矿床。基于1∶20万和1∶5万水系沉积物地球化学综合异常,开展了1∶1万土壤地球化学测量和1∶5千岩石化探测量。土壤化探次生晕异常(Pb、Zn、Ag成矿元素)的分布面积大、强度高,且与矿带展布方向高度一致;岩石地球化学原生晕异常反映了矿带及矿体的浅、深部的铅锌工业矿体主元素的分布规律,其中Pb、Zn套叠好,Ag、Cu套叠差。矿带由内向外横向分带规律为:Pb-Zn-Ag-Cu→Mn-Sn→(Mo)-Co-Ni;轴向分带自上而下(高程750~450m,间隔60m)为:As-Ag→Sn→Zn-Pb→Be→MoCo-Ni→Cu-Mn;找矿指示元素:矿上为Be、Mn;矿中为Pb、Zn、Ag、(Cu);矿下为Co、Ni。该项研究成果可作为矿带、矿体深部勘查预测的依据。     

长江河口潮波时空特征再分析

长江河口的潮波传播受到近岸及河口浅水地形及长江径流的显著影响,表现出很强的时空变化特征。已有相关研究主要关注徐六泾以下的河口段,还缺少对河口系统的潮波特征分析。本文基于大通、南京、徐六泾和牛皮礁4站的年内连续潮位资料,分析了主要天文分潮和浅水分潮的振幅沿程变化、季节变化特征和规律,认识到洪季大径流对江阴以上的近口段潮汐衰减作用显著大于枯季,而河口段的平均潮差有一定的半年周期变化,年内秋季最大。口内高频浅水分潮振幅在河口下段最大,且洪季大于枯季,低频浅水分潮则在河口上游振幅最大,由此反应径流对潮汐改造的非线性作用。这些认识可为水道航运及相关河口研究提供基础认识。最后本文也指出关于长江河口潮汐特征尚需进一步研究的若干问题,以期下一步工作取得相应进展。     

利用断头树估计2016年6月23日阜宁县龙卷风强度与尺度

2016年6月23日在盐城市阜宁县附近发生特大龙卷风事件,人员财产损失惨重。本文利用天气图和多普勒雷达图等气象资料,对此次龙卷风的产生机制进行分析,再根据受灾相对较严重的5个地区断头树情况的调查资料,以“大风中风速达到约42 m/s时,大风经过的树林中折断树的百分比急剧升高到50%”为依据,来估计风速达到42 m/s的龙卷风范围。调查结果显示:大气不稳定层结,冷、暖湿空气交汇,风的垂直风切变是此次龙卷风的重要诱发因子;此次龙卷风风速达到42 m/s的影响范围的长度至少达到20 km,最大宽度至少达到952 m。     

长航道乘潮水位计算新方法研究及应用

随着航道建设规模和航道里程增加,长航道乘潮水位的计算成为航道设计遇到的新技术难题之一。针对多潮位站控制长航道乘潮水位计算问题,提出了乘潮水位计算的多站联合典型潮曲线法。通过构建典型潮曲线,使乘潮累积频率、乘潮历时、潮波传播延时和潮波变形等关键要素同时呈现。基于构建的典型潮曲线,进一步探讨了长航道全程同一乘潮水位、分段变乘潮水位,以及进港、出港等不同情况下乘潮水位的设计取值方法,并以珠江崖门航道为例进行了实例分析,进一步说明了本方法的实用可行。