莱州市近岸海域水动力状况分析与海洋环境的合理利用

建立莱州市近岸海域潮流数值模型,并在此基础上建立了拉格朗日余流模型。结合在主要入海排污口进行的数值跟踪,对莱州市近岸海域的物理自净能力进行了分析。并对海洋环境的合理利用进行了探讨。     

A nonlinear wave profile correction of the diffraction of a wave by a long breakwater: Fixed point approach

The authors of the present paper have suggested an iterative scheme to calculate the nonlinear wave profiles [Jang and Kwon, 2005. Application of nonlinear iteration scheme to the nonlinear water wave problem: Stokes wave. Ocean Engineering 32, 1862–1872]. The scheme was shown to be good for estimating nonlinear wave profiles. In the study, the iterative scheme is applied to the wave-diffraction problem by a long breakwater to calculate a diffracted wave by the breakwater. The iterative solution of diffraction was compared with the linear solution of Sommerfeld, 1896. [Mathematische Theoried der Diffraction. Mathematical Annals 47, 317–374]. For a small wave slope, the two solutions were in good agreement. However, the scheme enabled us to observe the nonlinear behaviors of a beating phenomenon and of wave profile such as Stokes’ wave for a relatively large wave slope: as the wave slope becomes larger, we can examine the nonlinear wave characteristics of the actual shapes of waves, i.e., the crests are steeper and the troughs are flatter.     

台湾海峡北口潮汐观测与分析

介绍在台湾海峡北口中部水深约65m处进行临时验潮的方法和过程，并将其测验结果与台湾海峡东西两岸验潮站的资料进行了比较分析。结果显示：海峡北口中部海域与纬度较相近的海峡西岸平潭（东澳）站及东岸的淡水站相比，潮型基本一致，均为正规半日潮，在月赤纬大时，潮汐的日不等现象明显；潮差与西岸较接近，而明显大于东岸；潮时与西岸基本相同而早于东岸。     

浙江海面变化的灰色模型分析与预测

应用灰色模型理论，分析了各影响海面变化因素的影响力度，指出影响浙江海面趋势性变化的主要因素是气温；建立了海面变化的灰色气温模型，其计算值与实测值吻合良好，可根据气温变化趋势预测未来海面变化趋势。若未来百年全球气温再上升１．５－５．５℃，浙江海面将对应上升２４－７８ｃｍ。灰色模型模拟还显示，未来平均高潮位于上升速率明显大于平均低潮位上升速率，潮差将逐渐增大，在相同平均海面升幅的情况下，未来海面上升对     

黑龙江省中强震的周期性特征及中长期预报效能

本文以黑龙江省1900年至1989年>4.5级地震,讨论了中强地震的发生律规及特征,指出:黑龙江省中强地震具有明显的周期活跃性,其发生的地震类型、震中位置、活跃时段、平静期长短等特征都具有"重现性".具有很高的中长期预报效能.这表明:地震是地球上发生的特殊自然现象,也具有"自然节律"的特征.     

Conceptualizing leakage and storage contributions from long open interval wells in regional deep basin flow models

Deep basin aquifers are increasingly used in water‐stressed areas, though their potential for sustainable development is inhibited by overlying aquitards and limited recharge rates. Long open interval wells (LOIWs)—wells uncased through multiple hydrostratigraphic units—are present in many confined aquifer systems and can be an important mechanism for deep basin aquifers to receive flow across aquitards. LOIWs are a major control on flow in the deep Cambrian–Ordovician sandstone aquifers of the upper Midwest, USA, providing a source of artificial leakage from shallow bedrock aquifers and equilibrating head within the sandstone aquifers despite differential pumpage. Conceptualizing and quantifying this anthropogenic flow has long been a challenge for groundwater flow modellers, particularly on a regional scale. Synoptic measurements of active production wells and well completion data for northeast Illinois form the basis for a transient, head‐specified MODFLOW model that determines mass balance contributions to the region and estimates LOIW leakage to the aquifers. Using this insight, transient LOIW leakage was simulated using transiently changing K_V zones in a traditional, Q‐specified MODFLOW‐USG model, a novel approach that allows the K_V in a cell containing a LOIW to change transiently by use of the time‐variant materials (TVM) package. With this modification, we achieved a consistent calibration through time, averaging 19.9 m root mean squared error. This model indicates that artificial leakage via LOIWs contributed a minimum of 10–13% of total flow to the sandstone aquifers through the entire history of pumping, up to 50% of flow around 1930. Removal from storage exceeds 40% of flow during peak withdrawals, much of this flow sourced from units other than the primary sandstone aquifers via LOIWs. As such, understanding the timing and magnitude of LOIW leakage is essential for predicting future water availability in deep basin aquifers.     

Increasing water losses from snow captured in the canopy of boreal forests: A case study using a 30 year data set

Water losses from snow intercepted by forest canopy can significantly influence the hydrological cycle in seasonally snow‐covered regions, yet how snow interception losses (SIL) are influenced by a changing climate are poorly understood. In this study, we used a unique 30 year record (1986–2015) of snow accumulation and snow water equivalent measurements in a mature mixed coniferous (Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris ) forest stand and an adjacent open area to assess how changes in weather conditions influence SIL. Given little change in canopy cover during this study, the 20% increase in SIL was likely the result of changes in winter weather conditions. However, there was no significant change in average wintertime precipitation and temperature during the study period. Instead, mean monthly temperature values increased during the early winter months (i.e., November and December), whereas there was a significant decrease in precipitation in March. We also assessed how daily variation in meteorological variables influenced SIL and found that about 50% of the variation in SIL was correlated to the amount of precipitation that occurred when temperatures were lower than ?3 °C and to the proportion of days with mean daily temperatures higher than +0.4 °C. Taken together, this study highlights the importance of understanding the appropriate time scale and thresholds in which weather conditions influence SIL in order to better predict how projected climate change will influence snow accumulation and hydrology in boreal forests in the future.     

Simulation of long‐term consolidation behavior of soft sensitive clay using an elasto‐viscoplastic constitutive model

The phenomenon of excess pore water pressure increase or stagnation and continuing large ground deformation in soft sensitive clay following the completion of construction of embankment is simulated for a case study at Saint Alban, Quebec, Canada. The present model employs an updated Lagrangian finite element framework and is combined with an automatic time increment selection scheme. The simulation based on an elasto‐viscoplastic constitutive model considers soil‐structure degradation effect. It is shown that without consideration for the microstructural degradation effect, it is not possible to reproduce the field responses of soft sensitive clay even during the construction of the embankment. When the soil‐structure degradation effect is considered, the present model can offer reasonably accurate prediction for the consolidation behavior of soft sensitive clay, including the so‐called anomalous pore water pressure generation and continuing large deformation even after the end of construction, which has been posing numerous uncertainties on the long‐term performance of earth structures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of agricultural drought in Iiuni,Eastern Kenya: application of a Markov model

In semi‐arid Kenya, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity and duration occur. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop performance and yield. The objective of this study was to stochastically simulate the behaviour of dry and wet spells and rainfall amounts in Iiuni watershed, Kenya. The stochastic behaviour of the longest dry and wet spells (runs) and largest rainfall amounts were simulated using a Markov (order 1) model. There were eight raingauge stations within the watershed. The entire analysis was carried out using probability parameters, i.e. mean, variance, simple and conditional probabilities of dry and rain days. An analysis of variance test (ANOVA ) was used to establish significant differences in rainfall characteristics between the eight stations. An analysis of the number of rain days and rainfall amount per rain day was done on a monthly basis to establish the distribution and reliability of seasonal rainfall. The graphic comparison of simulated cumulative distribution functions (Cdfs) of the longest spells and largest rainfall amounts showed Markovian dependence or persistence. The longest dry spells could extend to 24 days in the long rainy season and 12 in the short rainy season. At 50% (median) probability level, the largest rainfall amounts were 91 mm for the long rainy season and 136 mm for the short rainy season. The short rains were more reliable for crop production than the long rains. The Markov model performed well and gave adequate simulations of the spells and rainfall amounts under semi‐arid conditions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.