一种利用浮标站资料改进海浪模式有效波高预报的方法

基于浮标站海浪历史数据,利用回归分析方法建立了海浪数值模式有效波高预报产品的一元二次回归方程订正统计模型。通过2017年7月1日-2018年10月10日期间业务试运行结果发现:订正方程能有效改善有效波高数值预报产品的预报精度,且预报时效越短订正效果越显著。其中,第6~11 h预报时效内的订正前后平均绝对误差值减小0.17~0. 241 m,第6~18 h预报时效内订正前后均方根误差减小幅度为0.103~0. 28 m。这说明应用订正统计模型对海浪模式输出产品进行订正,也是改进海浪模式预报准确率的一种有效途径。     

时间尺度重构EEMD-GRNN改进模型预测PM2.5的研究

合理构建PM_2.5浓度预测模型是科学、准确地预测PM_2.5浓度变化的关键。传统PM_2.5预测EEMD-GRNN模型具有较好的预测精度,但是存在过于关注研究数据本身而忽略其物理意义的不足。本研究基于南京市2014-2017年PM_2.5浓度时间序列数据,分析PM_2.5浓度多尺度变化特征及其对气象因子和大气污染因子的尺度响应,基于时间尺度重构进行EEMD-GRNN模型的改进与实证研究。南京市样本数据PM_2.5浓度变化表现为明显的天际尺度和月际尺度,从重构尺度（天际、月际）构建GRNN模型更具有现实意义;同时,PM_2.5对PM₁₀、NO₂、O₃、RH、MinT等因子存在多尺度响应效应,以其作为GRNN模型中的输入变量更具有时间序列上的解释意义。改进后的EEMD-GRNN模型具有更高的PM_2.5浓度预测精度,MAE、MAPE、RMSE和R²分别为6.17、18.41%、8.32和0.95,而传统EEMD-GRNN模型的模型有效性检验结果分别为8.37、27.56%、11.56、0.91。对于高浓度天（PM_2.5浓度大于100 μg/m³）的预测,改进模型更是全面优于传统EEMD-GRNN模型,MAPE为12.02%,相较于传统模型提高了9.03%。     

Geospatial data mining for digital raster mapping

We performed an in-depth literature survey to identify the most popular data mining approaches that have been applied for raster mapping of ecological parameters through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Popular data mining approaches included decision trees or “data mining” trees which consist of regression and classification trees, random forests, neural networks, and support vector machines. The advantages of each data mining approach as well as approaches to avoid overfitting are subsequently discussed. We also provide suggestions and examples for the mapping of problematic variables or classes, future or historical projections, and avoidance of model bias. Finally, we address the separate issues of parallel processing, error mapping, and incorporation of “no data” values into modeling processes. Given the improved availability of digital spatial products and remote sensing products, data mining approaches combined with parallel processing potentials should greatly improve the quality and extent of ecological datasets.     

基于AHP-PSR模型的西南丘陵地区农用地集约利用动态评价

针对西南丘陵地区农用地利用效率低、耕地质量锐减、人地关系逐步恶化等问题构建了基于AHP-PSR模型的西南丘陵地区农用地集约利用评价系统。采用专家打分法进行指标筛选后,基于AHP-PSR模型进行农用地集约利用动态评价,对系统内部协调及稳定性进行分析、评估,较深入地研究农用地集约利用驱动因子,并采用最优子集选取策略分析集约利用驱动力,以避免仅以简单相关性就加入或剔除驱动力因素导致回归系数不符合实际内涵的现象。实验表明:可利用系统调整指标间权重,动态展示人地关系协调可持续发展关系,其分析结果可供有关部门决策参考。     

Building a model-based personalised recommendation approach for tourist attractions from geotagged social media data

When travelling, people are accustomed to taking and uploading photos on social media websites, which has led to the accumulation of huge numbers of geotagged photos. Combined with multisource information (e.g. weather, transportation, or textual information), these geotagged photos could help us in constructing user preference profiles at a high level of detail. Therefore, using these geotagged photos, we built a personalised recommendation system to provide attraction recommendations that match a user's preferences. Specifically, we retrieved a geotagged photo collection from the public API for Flickr (Flickr.com) and fetched a large amount of other contextual information to rebuild a user's travel history. We then created a model-based recommendation method with a two-stage architecture that consists of candidate generation (the matching process) and candidate ranking. In the matching process, we used a support vector machine model that was modified for multiclass classification to generate the candidate list. In addition, we used a gradient boosting regression tree to score each candidate and rerank the list. Finally, we evaluated our recommendation results with respect to accuracy and ranking ability. Compared with widely used memory-based methods, our proposed method performs significantly better in the cold-start situation and when mining ‘long-tail’ data.     

Specifying a joint space- and time-lag using a bivariate Poisson distribution

Separate space- or time-lags have been considered regularly in data analyses; as space–time models are more recently being studied extensively in data analytic fashion, joint estimation of both lags has to be considered explicitly. This paper addresses this issue, taking into special consideration parametric parsimony together with specification richness; use of the bivariate Poisson frequency distribution is advocated and applied to an empirical case. The relation of this approach to random effects specifications is investigated. Data for Belgian regional products constitute the empirical case study.

三维空间中简单线与体之间的拓扑关系研究

三维空间对象的拓扑关系对于研究三维空间对象的操作及其算法至关重要。本文在详细研究拓扑关系的9-交和4-交模型的基础上,指出了它们在表达简单线与体拓扑关系上的局限性,9-交模型的线性相关性以及4-交模型的不完备性。进而提出简单线与体拓扑关系表达的扩展4-交模型,运用扩展4-交模型详细分析了简单线与体的拓扑关系,并给出图示。接着对所提扩展4-交模型线性无关性及完备性进行了论证。最后对所提出的扩展4-交模型进行了总结性说明。     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

台风对海洋叶绿素a浓度影响的定量遥感初探

研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响,是目前海洋遥感技术又一应用领域。由于台风期间天气恶劣,遥感资料较少,国际上主要针对个别典型台风,研究其对海表温度、海洋叶绿素a浓度及初级生产力的影响,很少通过遥感资料系统地对这一影响进行定量分析和建模。自2000到2007年,过境中国近海以及西北太平洋海域台风近百次,作者通过系统地分析这期间MODIS,SeaWiFS的3A级叶绿素a浓度数据,结果发现:(1)台风促进了相应海域叶绿素a浓度的大幅增长,总体上平均增长约1.426倍,个别区域在5倍以上,同时,该增长一般延后3~6d,在7~10d后恢复到原来的水平;(2)进一步对这些数据进行一元统计线性回归,发现叶绿素a浓度增长比(R_chl-a)与台风影响因子(Tsub>w)满足如下关系:R_chl-a=0.0012Tsub>w+1.017,其相关系数达0.8;(3)台风期间叶绿素a浓度与无台风时叶绿素a浓度之间有很强的线性关系,其关系满足:C_chl-a=1.2367C_0chl-a+0.0636,且相关系数高达0.98。这一初步研究结果对进一步通过遥感手段深入研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响有借鉴意义。     

拓扑线性空间中存在非连续线性算子的充要条件

在拓扑线性空间中存在非连续线性泛函的基础上,给出了拓扑线性空间中存在非连续线性算子的充要条件,即拓扑线性空间中存在不闭的线性真子空间.