利用静止气象卫星监测初生对流的研究进展

本文主要对近年来利用静止气象卫星监测、分析和研究对流初生的国内外若干研究结果和进展给予了简要综述。主要涉及对流的判识、对流的追踪技术、初生对流的多光谱云顶特征、初生对流的判据和问题与展望等方面的内容。总体而言,利用静止气象卫星监测初生对流,以及发展的对流,是目前国内外研究和探索的热点之一。研究表明,通过精心挑选对对流敏感的光谱通道、通道组合和时间演变判据,可以对初生对流进行监测,可比地面雷达更早地预警降雨系统的发展,显示出在临近预报中的应用潜力。监测对流初生的算法流程大体上分为目标判识、目标追踪和初生对流判识三个部分。国际上主要的一些与对流初生相关的成熟算法各具特色,如RDT(Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms)算法在对流判识中强调了垂直形态的峰值检测,追踪对流时利用了速度外推并检测重叠面积。ForTraCC(Forecasting and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters)算法关注活跃对流,一定程度上考虑了对流合并和分裂的情况,具有外推预报功能。GOES-R(The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-Series Program)算法特点是多光谱的使用,利用多光谱判识技术进行对流云顶检测,是面向下一代静止气象卫星探测能力的算法。UWCI(The University of Wisconsin Convective Initiation)构思巧妙,所提出的box-average技术简单易行,适合软件工程化。随着卫星传感器和探测能力的发展,以及计算机技术的快速发展,更多卫星资料将用于联合判识对流。同时,更新的计算机视觉、计算机图像处理和模式识别技术也将用来解决追踪中的复杂问题,进一步改进初生对流的判识准确率。     

浙江省雷电灾害易损性分析及风险区划

根据 2007-2011 年浙江省雷电灾害事故调查资料、浙江省地闪监测资料,选取地闪密度、灾害频数、经济（GDP）损失模数、生命易损模数、雷灾经济损失、人员伤亡等作为浙江省各市雷电灾害易损性评估指标,对浙江省各市进行雷电灾害易损性综合评估,并结合 GIS 方法对浙江省进行了雷电灾害易损性风险区划,为有针对性做好防御雷电灾害规划提供科学依据.     

雷电定位系统与人工观测雷暴日数统计比较

为了利用雷电定位系统 (lightning location system,LLS) 资料统计人工观测雷暴日数,采用湖北省2007—2012年LLS监测资料,选取25个气象站为圆心,统计其不同监测半径 (r) 圆区域内LLS监测的雷电日数,并与人工观测雷暴日数进行比较。结果表明:r≤7 km时,LLS监测平均年雷电日数小于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r≥8 km时, LLS监测平均年雷电日数大于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r=22 km圆区域内年平均雷电日数可替代最大年雷暴日数。根据r=7 km,r=8 km圆区域内LLS监测的年雷电日数、年平均地闪密度资料,分别采用直接替代法、地闪密度法和该文提出的二元法计算年雷暴日数,结果显示:二元法效果最好。二元法计算的2007—2012年25个站平均年雷暴日数与人工观测相等,平均差异为7.4%;二元法计算的2013年年雷暴日数与人工观测相差0.8 d,平均差异为12.3%。     

Statistical Characteristics of Convective Initiation in the Beijing-Tianjin Region Revealed by Six-Year Radar Data

Characteristics of convective initiation (CI) in the Beijing-Tianjin region during the warm season of2008-2013 are examined. A total of 38877 CI cases are identified by a thunderstorm identification, tracking, analysis, and nowcasting algorithm. CI cases are evaluated in the context of associated terrain, weather systems, and land cover properties. The spatial distribution of all CI cases shows that there are dense CI activities around the 200-m elevation, which means that convective storms are more easily triggered over foothills. From 1500-1800 to 0300-0600 BT (Beijing Time), the high-occurrence CI region tends to propagate southeastward (i.e., from mountains to plains, then to ocean). Among the four local weather systems, the Mongolian cold vortex has the highest CI frequency while the after-trough system has the lowest CI frequency. For the land cover relationships with CI, the urban land cover has the highest CI density and the forest-type land cover has the second highest CI density; these two types of land cover are more conducive to CI formation.     

An Overview of Nowcasting Development, Applications, and Services in the Hong Kong Observatory

The Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been developing a suite of nowcasting systems to support op- erations of the forecasting center and to provide a variety of nowcasting services for the general public and specialized users. The core system is named the Short-range Warnings of Intense Rainstorm of Localized Systems （SWIRLS）, which is a radar-based nowcasting system mainly for the automatic tracking of the movement of radar echoes and the short-range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast （QPF）. The differential, integral （or variational）, and object-oriented tracking algorithms were developed and integrated into the nowcasting suite. In order to predict severe weather associated with intense thunderstorms, such as high gust, hail, and lightning, SWIRLS was enhanced to SWIRLS-II by introduction of a number of physical models, especially the icing physics as well as the thermodynamics of the atmosphere. SWIRLS-Ⅱ was further enhanced with non-hydrostatic, high resolution numerical models for extending the forecast range up to 6h ahead. Meanwhile, SWIRLS was also modified for providing nowcasting services for aviation community and specialized users. To take into account the rapid development of lightning events, ensemble nowcasting techniques such as time-lagged and weighted average ensemble approaches were also adopted in the nowcasting system. Apart from operational uses in Hong Kong, SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ was also exported to other places to participate in several international events such as the WMO/WWRP Forecast Demon- stration Project （FDP） during the Beijing 2008 Olympics Games and the Shanghai Expo 2010. Meanwhile, SWIRLS has also been transferred to various regional meteorological organizations for establishing their nowcasting infrastructure. This paper summarizes the history and the technologies of SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ and its variants and the associated nowcasting applications and services provided by the HKO since the mid 1990s.     

降雨条件下北川斜坡破坏的数值模拟

本文采用FLAC的两相流模式和修正的Mohr—Coulomb模型,对北川地区震后土在降雨条件下的位移和速度矢量进行了数值模拟和分析,同时在室内进行了降雨条件下斜坡破坏的模型实验。分析结果表明：土体在沿坡面的最大水平位移发生在坡脚处,土体水平位移是衡量斜坡破坏的首要指标,可采用坡面特征点的位移突变作为斜坡破坏的判别标准;数值模拟得到的斜坡破坏与降雨历时关系与室内模型实验结果吻合较好。     

武汉市油气库雷电预警服务系统设计与应用

依托湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目,湖北省防雷中心于2013年开发出武汉市油气库雷电预警服务系统。在介绍该系统设计思路、主要功能、运行流程的基础上,以2013年7月5—6日武汉市一次强降水过程为例,选取湖北省气象局所在地周边两家加油站作为服务对象进行系统应用测试,跟踪检测系统运行情况及服务效果。结果表明,雷电预警系统闪电监测准确,预警及闪电信息发布及时,服务对象对此反馈良好。     

交叉裂隙岩体裂纹扩展试验及混合有限-离散元数值模拟研究

对预制交叉裂隙岩石试样进行裂纹扩展试验,研究了裂纹萌生、扩展、聚合过程,分析了主裂隙和轴向载荷夹角及主次裂隙夹角对裂纹起裂应力和聚合应力的影响,并用混合有限元-离散元程序,即图形处理器并行化的3D Y-HFDEM代码对试验进行了仿真计算,实现了岩石破坏从连续介质向非连续介质的过渡,对裂纹类及损伤破坏模式进行了识别,捕捉到了试验中难以发现的现象。研究表明：随主裂隙与轴向载荷夹角增加,裂纹聚合区的拉伸裂纹数量增加;裂纹起裂和聚合应力与主裂隙与轴向载荷夹角成正比;主次裂隙夹角增加,岩石的破坏模式由拉伸破坏转为剪切破坏,交叉裂隙加剧岩石破碎程度;主裂隙尖端萌生扩展的拉伸-剪切混合裂缝引起的破坏在岩石破坏中占主导地位,是导致岩体失去承载能力的主控裂纹;混合有限元-离散元仿真软件GPGPU并行化的3D Y-HFDEM IDE在岩石裂纹扩展研究中具有优势,可以捕捉实验室难以发现的损伤断裂类型,可以作为岩石裂纹扩展研究的有力工具。     

Under the surface: Pressure-induced planetary-scale waves,volcanic lightning,and gaseous clouds caused by the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano

We present a narrative of the eruptive events culminating in the cataclysmic January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano by synthesizing diverse preliminary seismic, volcanological, sound wave, and lightning data available within the first few weeks after the eruption occurred. The first hour of eruptive activity produced fast-propagating tsunami waves, long-period seismic waves, loud audible sound waves, infrasonic waves, exceptionally intense volcanic lightning and an unsteady volcanic plume that transiently reached—at 58 ?km—the Earth's mesosphere. Energetic seismic signals were recorded worldwide and the globally stacked seismogram showed episodic seismic events within the most intense periods of phreatoplinian activity, and they correlated well with the infrasound pressure waveform recorded in Fiji. Gravity wave signals were strong enough to be observed over the entire planet in just the first few hours, with some circling the Earth multiple times subsequently. These large-amplitude, long-wavelength atmospheric disturbances come from the Earth's atmosphere being forced by the magmatic mixture of tephra, melt and gasses emitted by the unsteady but quasi-continuous eruption from 0402±1–1800 UTC on January 15, 2022. Atmospheric forcing lasted much longer than rupturing from large earthquakes recorded on modern instruments, producing a type of shock wave that originated from the interaction between compressed air and ambient (wavy) sea surface. This scenario differs from conventional ideas of earthquake slip, landslides, or caldera collapse-generated tsunami waves because of the enormous (～1000x) volumetric change due to the supercritical nature of volatiles associated with the hot, volatile-rich phreatoplinian plume. The time series of plume altitude can be translated to volumetric discharge and mass flow rate. For an eruption duration of ～12 ?h, the eruptive volume and mass are estimated at 1.9 ?km³ and ～2 900 ?Tg, respectively, corresponding to a VEI of 5–6 for this event. The high frequency and intensity of lightning was enhanced by the production of fine ash due to magma—seawater interaction with concomitant high charge per unit mass and the high pre-eruptive concentration of dissolved volatiles. Analysis of lightning flash frequencies provides a rapid metric for plume activity and eruption magnitude. Many aspects of this eruption await further investigation by multidisciplinary teams. It represents a unique opportunity for fundamental research regarding the complex, non-linear behavior of high energetic volcanic eruptions and attendant phenomena, with critical implications for hazard mitigation, volcano forecasting, and first-response efforts in future disasters.     

类砂质泥岩常规三轴浆压致裂起裂压力试验研究

为深入探究两淮矿区典型砂质泥岩劈裂注浆起裂机制,研制了常规三轴劈裂注浆试验装置,开展了类砂质泥岩浆压致裂起裂压力模型试验,基于试验结果分析了岩石强度与应力状态对注浆起裂压力、裂缝扩展形态影响规律,揭示了砂质泥岩劈裂注浆起裂机制。研究表明：起裂压力与岩石抗压强度呈正相关,且岩石抗压强度越高,劈裂路径越复杂;起裂压力对围压的敏感程度远高于轴压,且应力差 Δσ =σ_V −σ_H越大,裂缝形态越规整;孔压三轴条件下,封闭裸孔段浆压致裂法确定的岩石抗拉强度值约为单轴抗拉强度的 2.5倍。该研究结果可为今后类似岩层劈裂注浆参数设计与施工提供参考。