1—3年强震危险区预测的指标体系

强震危险区预测是当前地震预报中的重要课题之一。笔者以预警活断层、预警活断层分段研究解决断层活动的时间和空间尺度为主线，配合地震活动动态分析、地震波介质特征早期信息、近场趋势性前兆异常和危险性概率预测，确定了判别几年尺度强震危险区的指标。在“八五”地震科技课题研究过程中，圈这了范围不超过１００００ｋｍ＾２的５个强震危险区，已成功地对１９９３年１０月２日若羌６．６级地震、１９９５年５月２日乌苏５．８级     

1997年4月6日、11日、16日新疆伽师4次6.3～6.6级地震烈度分布及震害特征

1997年4月6日、11日、16日新疆伽师继1月21日和3月1日3次6级以上地震之后又连续发生了4次6级以上地震。极震区烈度达Ⅷ度．极震区内的英买里乡所有Ⅰ类房屋几乎全部倒塌或严重破坏；江巴孜乡、和夏阿瓦提乡、克孜勒苏乡和巴仁镇的大部分房屋倒塌或严重破坏。在地下水位高、土质松散地区出现大面积喷水冒砂与地裂缝。根据震害评估与宏观考察资料，介绍了各烈度区的震害特征。     

国家气象中心降水数值预报信息效益评估

以列联表形式计算熵函数，由熵函数值对国家气象中心发布的１９９６年汛期６月２２日－８月７日５次暴雨过程降水数值预报进行评估，得到５种数值预报产品给江苏省各区域的雨量预报提供了０．１８２４ｂｉｔ－０．２９１４ｂｉｔ信息等结论。     

回顾与展望

本文对４年来我国工程地质的发展进行了总结，通过长江三峡及黄河小浪底工程施工开挖说明了施工工程地质的重要意义，阐述了地质工程的理论与应用上的发展，环境工程地质及灾害地质研究所取得的进展与不足。对今后工程地质的发展提出了建议。     

Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.     

Trends In U.S. Hazardous Materials Transportation Spills

This paper examines historical and spatial trends in hazardous materials transportation spills from 1971 to 1991. While the number of spills Inc.reased steadily during the 1970s, peaking in 1978–1979, there has been a decline in frequency sInc.e then largely due to modifications in reporting. Monetary damages have the opposite temporal pattern, with major Inc.reases recorded from 1982 onward. Death and injury statistics are more variable. Spatially, accidents are more prevalent in the Rust Belt extending from the Northeast corridor westward to the Great Lakes states, as well as in the Southeast. The greatest potential risk to the public is found in smaller, more densely populated industrial states such as New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. The spatial distribution, however, has not changed. Potential risk sources (e.g., chemical industry, number of hazardous waste facilities, number of railroad miles) are the best predictors of hazmat Inc.ident frequency. Mitigation efforts (statewide regulatory and/or management policies) also help explain the variability in hazmat Inc.idents.     

FARMING THE FOREST EDGE: VULNERABLE PLACES AND PEOPLE AROUND KIBALE NATIONAL PARK,UGANDA

ABSTRACT. Subsistence farmers near Kibale National Park, Uganda, fear and resent many wildlife species. In this article I compare records of crop damage by wildlife and livestock with local complaints about the worst animals and the most vulnerable crops. I discuss the concordance and discrepancies in complaints versus actual damage in light of physical parameters of risk and of social factors that shape perceptions and vulnerabilities. Crop losses were greatest at the edge of the forest, where immigrants are disproportionately represented. State proprietorship of wildlife amplifies local vulnerability and constrains traditional coping strategies, such as hunting.     

泥石流等级和灾度的定量计算

泥石流等级是描述一次泥石流规模大小的定量指标,泥石流灾度是描述一次泥石流造成社会损失大小的定量指标。这两个指标概念明确,简单易行,有利于使描述泥石流规模大小和灾情程度的术语逐步规范化、定量化和普及化。     

Unsiting Nuclear Power Plants: Decommissioning Risks and Their Land Use Context*

Nuclear power plant siting provided the first significant public opportunity to examine nuclear safety and to affect nuclear policy. These discussions were prompted and fueled by perceptions of nuclear risk. Now, as we begin the process of nuclear decommissioning, we are finding that power plant removal—unsiting–is also likely to attract public interest. This paper presents a preliminary survey of how we are likely to react to this emerging theme, applying these findings within a land use context to see if it is likely to produce issues salient to the public. In so doing it also examines how these issues could affect decommissioning timing and type. It suggests that the most likely prospect is that power plants will remain on the landscape long after they are closed.     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。