丰满流域汛期降水变化特征分析

利用丰满流域水文站1936~2008年降水资料、1948~2008年美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料,通过线性趋势分析、小波分析、M-K检验分析和最大熵谱分析对该流域汛期降水量变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:丰满流域汛期降水量与年降水量均呈减少趋势,特别是近20 a和30 a降水量减少较明显,汛期降水量下降趋势倾向值在1989~2008年达到-39.2mm/10a;年降水量下降倾向值在1979~2008年达到-26.5mm/10a,汛期降水量的减少较年降水量减少的明显。汛期6月、7月降水量下降的不明显,8月、9月降水量减少相对明显。最大熵谱分析和Morlet小波分析结果表明,丰满流域汛期降水量的周期变化存在着一个8~9 a左右的降水相对短周期和一个28 a的降水长周期;利用1948~2008年NCEP再分析资料对多雨、少雨的7月、8月200 hPa、700 hPa环流形势场、850 hPa风场进行了分析,以分析流域汛期降水减少的可能原因。丰满流域降水减少的可能原因是汛期影响该流域的台风次数减少、冷涡影响天数的减少,副高偏南、偏西不利于水汽向北输送和南支系统北上的影响。     

极地浮游病毒的研究进展

本文对极地海洋病毒的国内外研究现状进行了扼要阐述,尤其是海冰融化对病毒的生态影响。内容包括极地海域的浮游病毒丰度、多样性及在碳循环中的作用研究,以及我国在极地科考中所进行的与浮游病毒相关的工作。并提出了今后在极地海域要解决的与病毒相关的科学问题。     

基于PS-VF-TBD的地波雷达船只目标航迹起始方法

针对地波雷达低信噪比目标信号"闪烁"导致的航迹起始困难问题,本文提出了一种基于PS-VF-TBD的航迹起始方法.该方法综合利用了地波雷达回波谱中目标信号的展宽特征和运动特性,利用PS-VF-TBD方法对运动目标能量有效积累的特点,提高对疑似目标多帧信号间的关联概率,进而提高对真实目标的搜索概率和航迹起始成功率.通过地波...     

Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Variations of Cosmic Ray Intensity

The monthly cosmic ray intensity (CRI) time series from Climax, Huancayo, Moscow, Kiel, and Calgary are used to investigate the presence of the 11-year periodic component with special attention paid to the solar influence on these variations. The results show obvious 11-year temporal characteristics in CRI variations. We also find a close anticorrelation between the 11-year solar cycle and CRI variations and time delays of the CRI relative to solar activity.     

On the regime of the Earth’s polar motion based on data for the period 1962–2007

The view of the Earth’s polar motion as a completely deterministic process has been called into question in the past decades, because no long-term prediction can be made. At the same time, no fundamental restrictions currently exist in the problem of a long-term prediction of the Earth’s rotation. Determining the boundaries of predictability is related to identifying the regime of the Earth’s polar motion. IERS data for the period 1962–2007 have been used to study the regime of the Earth’s polar motion. Analysis of the plots of polhodes reveals peculiarities in the variations of the pole’s coordinates X and Y in certain intervals along the time axis. The data in the interval from 2003 to 2006 have been analyzed in greatest detail: a model for the Chandler and annual oscillations has been constructed and relations between the parameters of these oscillations have been determined; the shift of the instantaneous pole on the phase plane and the Poincare plane has been investigated. As a result, we have found features inherent in chaotic motion (intermittency) and calculated the period (32 years) of the possible repetitions of such anomalies, as confirmed by our analysis of the plots of polhodes. The intervals where the peculiarities in the motion of the Earth’s instantaneous pole manifest themselves are compared with the intervals of the inflections on the plots of variations in the length of the day (LOD).     

POLAR investigation of the Sun—POLARIS

The POLAR Investigation of the Sun (POLARIS) mission uses a combination of a gravity assist and solar sail propulsion to place a spacecraft in a 0.48 AU circular orbit around the Sun with an inclination of 75° with respect to solar equator. This challenging orbit is made possible by the challenging development of solar sail propulsion. This first extended view of the high-latitude regions of the Sun will enable crucial observations not possible from the ecliptic viewpoint or from Solar Orbiter. While Solar Orbiter would give the first glimpse of the high latitude magnetic field and flows to probe the solar dynamo, it does not have sufficient viewing of the polar regions to achieve POLARIS’s primary objective: determining the relation between the magnetism and dynamics of the Sun’s polar regions and the solar cycle.

What makes a planet habitable?

This work reviews factors which are important for the evolution of habitable Earth-like planets such as the effects of the host star dependent radiation and particle fluxes on the evolution of atmospheres and initial water inventories. We discuss the geodynamical and geophysical environments which are necessary for planets where plate tectonics remain active over geological time scales and for planets which evolve to one-plate planets. The discoveries of methane–ethane surface lakes on Saturn’s large moon Titan, subsurface water oceans or reservoirs inside the moons of Solar System gas giants such as Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus and more than 335 exoplanets, indicate that the classical definition of the habitable zone concept neglects more exotic habitats and may fail to be adequate for stars which are different from our Sun. A classification of four habitat types is proposed. Class I habitats represent bodies on which stellar and geophysical conditions allow Earth-analog planets to evolve so that complex multi-cellular life forms may originate. Class II habitats includes bodies on which life may evolve but due to stellar and geophysical conditions that are different from the class I habitats, the planets rather evolve toward Venus- or Mars-type worlds where complex life-forms may not develop. Class III habitats are planetary bodies where subsurface water oceans exist which interact directly with a silicate-rich core, while class IV habitats have liquid water layers between two ice layers, or liquids above ice. Furthermore, we discuss from the present viewpoint how life may have originated on early Earth, the possibilities that life may evolve on such Earth-like bodies and how future space missions may discover manifestations of extraterrestrial life.     

2003年8月“巴蜀夜雨”过程的模拟和分析研究

结合中尺度数值预报模式AREM的数值试验和观测资料分析,对2003年8月川西地区的9次夜雨过程进行了模拟研究和综合分析.结果表明,在一定环流背景下,川西地区特殊地形引起的沿坡地的辐合上升运动和下垫面提供给低层大气的热通量所导致的大气层结不稳定,对川西夜雨的形成和发展有重要影响.白天,随着陆-气通量交换的增加,低层大气的温度和湿度逐步升高,并在午后达到极值.与此同时,低层偏南暖湿气流在盆地西部由于气旋性弯曲而形成的东北风在午后逐渐加强,这支气流在盆地西部被地形阻挡,产生爬升运动.辐合上升将低层高温高湿的大气向上输送,使得大气不稳定层结的厚度以及强度都增加;日落以后,低层大气的相对湿度随着气温的降低而增大,容易饱和而形成凝结,同时大气中积累了相当可观的对流有效位能,低层辐合抬升等因素容易触发不稳定能量释放,造成对流性夜雨天气.强烈的对流辐合运动需要周围大气的入流补偿,促使偏东风气流增强且向高空伸展,这令辐合抬升作用进一步增强.     

电接风向风速自记纸数字化处理系统的设计与实现

纸质记录曲线的识别和数字化是图像处理和模式识别领域的一项重要内容, 是对气象档案馆保存的气象纸质曲线资料数字化的有效方法。该文研究并构建了电接风向风速自记纸数字化处理系统, 该系统主要包括4个处理阶段:自记纸图像的输入、图像预处理、自记曲线的分割、曲线的跟踪和识别。其中, 自记纸图像的输入应用TWAIN (Toolkit Without An Interesting Name, 无注名工具包协议) 标准来设计, 对记录曲线的跟踪识别, 该文提出的基于灰度积分投影的分段线性插值算法, 取得了很好的识别效果。     

中全新世时期中国地区水循环因子变化的模拟研究

利用全球气候模式CAEM3嵌套区域模式MM5模拟了现代和中全新世时的气候,从模拟结果可以发现中全新世有效降水变化中心随季节变化,最大的有效降水增加出现在夏季东北地区和内蒙古东部,最大值超过3 mm/d;同时,黄河与长江之间区域降水减少,最大变化超过2 mm/d.中国北方地区云量增加,同时,中国东部的长江流域云量减少.高云量变化较小,低云量变化最大,最大变化超过2成.夏季,对应着黄河与长江之间区域的云量减少,这个区域的温度升高最大.从水汽的变化可以看到长江流域地区水汽减少,相对湿度也减少,这与云量的变化一致;华南地区水汽的变化与季节有关;东北地区水汽增加,相对湿度增大,对应云量的增加和降水增多.从结果可以发现相对湿度最大的变化超过15%,不是一个常数.有些地区温度升高,但是水汽却减少.但是,在LGM的温度降低的区域,水汽一致减少.这说明温度降低水汽对应减少,但温度升高不一定对应水汽增加.这与全球尺度水汽相对湿度基本保持常数的结果不同.中全新世时,长江流域除春季外变得干燥、少雨和高温,东北和内蒙古东部变得多雨和潮湿.