北京市几种主要污染物浓度与气象要素的相关分析

利用 1 999年 1 1月 1日至 2 0 0 3年 7月 30日间 ,北京市几种主要污染物SO2 、NO2 及PM1 0 浓度逐日资料和风速、温度及降水的逐日资料 ,分别对北京市几种主要污染物浓度与同期气象要素之间的关系进行了分析。通过分析注意到 ,污染物浓度与同期气象要素之间通常存在非常明显的非线性关系 ;因而采用非线性回归方程来描述污染物浓度与气象要素之间的依赖关系 ,这一改进使污染物浓度与气象要素之间的相关性有了明显的提高 ,同时使回归方程的误差减小。     

城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估方法

城市防震减灾能力是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系,对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题。本文首先提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念,把人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间三方面作为衡量城市防震减灾能力的准则;围绕这三个准则归纳出影响城市防震减灾能力的六大因素,并用一些简单、可测量的指标来代表这六大因素,建立起城市防震减灾能力指标体系;然后再分别建立这些指标体系中的各种因素或其子因素与评价三准则中的人员伤亡、经济损失和恢复时间的联系;最后用灰色关联分析方法将三个评价准则综合成一个防震减灾能力指数。从而为城市防震减灾能力评估提供了一个较系统、完整的理论体系框架,可对城市的防震减灾能力进行定量的评价,指导城市防震减灾决策。     

结构平稳随机地震反应时域分析:应用

以平面框架结构为例阐述了结构平稳随机地震反应时域分析方法的应用。首先利用静力凝聚方法大幅度地缩减结构的自由度数目，形成一维链状模型，使得结构运动方程中只包含各层反应从而大大降低计算工作量。其次推导了结点随机反应和层间随机反应的计算公式，可以方便地获得结构在理想白噪声、金井清谱和改进金井清谱三种随机地震地面运动激励下的协方差位移反应函数和协方差速度反应函数。最后通过一个单跨双层的平面框架结构实例，阐述了这种方法的使用过程。     

Facies, cycles, and controls on the evolution of a keep-up carbonate platform (Kimmeridgian, Swiss Jura)

During the Late Jurassic, accelerated ocean-floor spreading and associated sea-level rise were responsible for a worldwide transgression, which reached its maximum in the Late Kimmeridgian. In many Western European basins, this major sea-level rise led to the formation of marly and condensed sections. In the Swiss Jura, however, a shallow carbonate platform kept growing and only subtle changes in the stratigraphic record suggest an increasingly open-marine influence. Field observations and thin-section analyses reveal that the central Swiss Jura was at that time occupied by tidal flats and by more or less open marine lagoons where shoals and bioherms developed. The evolution through time of sedimentary facies and bed thicknesses permits the definition of small-, medium-, and large-scale depositional sequences. The diagnostic features of these sequences are independent of scale and seem largely controlled by the Kimmeridgian second-order transgression. A high-resolution sequence-stratigraphic correlation with biostratigraphically well-dated hemipelagic and pelagic sections in the Vocontian Basin in France reveals that: (i) The most important increase in accommodation recorded in the Kimmeridgian of the central Swiss Jura occurs in the Eudoxus ammonite zone (Late Kimmeridgian) and corresponds to the second-order maximum flooding recognized in many sedimentary basins. (ii) The small- and medium-scale sequences have time durations corresponding to the first and second orbital eccentricity cycle (i.e. 100 and 400 ka, respectively), suggesting that sedimentation on the platform and in the basin was at least partly controlled by cyclic environmental changes induced by insolation variations in the Milankovitch frequency band. The comparison of the high-resolution temporal framework defined in the Swiss Jura and Vocontian Basin with the sequence-stratigraphic interpretation realized in other Western European basins shows that the large-scale sequence boundaries defined in the Kimmeridgian of the Swiss Jura appear in comparable biostratigraphic positions in most Western European basins. Discrepancies that occur are probably because of local or regional tectonics.     

Lithostratigraphy of the Mérida (Wisconsinan) glaciation and Pedregal interstade, Mérida Andes, northwestern Venezuela

At Pedregal, more than 40 m of sediments are exposed within a ‘fan complex’ formed between lateral moraines of the adjacent Mucuchache and El Caballo valleys. Early and late Mérida (Wisconsinan) glaciations are represented by till and till plus proglacial sediments, respectively. A middle Wisconsinan interstadial event, here termed the Pedregal interstade, began at the end of the Early Mérida glaciation at approximately 60 ka BP. Following the retreat of ice from the small Pedregal Basin, a lake formed when the local drainage was blocked due to movement of the Mesa de Caballo along the Boconó Fault. Shallow lake or no-lake phases lasted approximately a few hundred to, at most, 2000 years, and each lake phase was marked by peat accumulation. Four of seven peats identified formed during sufficiently long intervals for soil profiles (incipient to mature Spodosols) also to develop. The Spodosol with the strongest development (Eb/Bsb/Coxb/Cub horizons) is found adjacent to the lowest peat and reflects ongoing early Mérida stadial (MIS 3) conditions; the youngest peats, associated with weak podzolic soils (Eb/Bsb horizons), formed under slightly warmer interstadial conditions, presumably with less soil water. Cyclic lacustrine deposition is related to lake level and relative depth fluctuations, due in part to variable shoreline/delta progradation and shallowing as the lake deepened in general. Whereas final drainage of the lake is related to movement of the Boconó Fault and breach of the moraines that form the Mesa de Caballo, earlier lake level fluctuations appear related to climate change. Radiocarbon dating of the peats suggests they are related to warmer periods and may tentatively correlate with small ‘interstadials’ or ‘D-O events’ detected in the oxygen-isotope record of Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic marine sediments.     

湖南境内沅水流域地质灾害形成因素分析

沅水流域流经湖南省的西部地区，由于地质环境和社会经济背景的特殊性，已成为湖南省地质灾害的主要分布区。通过对流域内地质灾害发育特征的归纳，着重从自然影响因素和人类活动两个方面来分析流域内地质灾害的形成。主要采用灰色关联理论来分析流域内大气降水、地形条件和人类活动等3个主要致灾因子的关联度，其结果分别为0．8332、0．6589和0．5654，从而来探求流域内地质灾害灾变机理的规律性，为流域内各个地区的防灾减灾提供依据，最大限度减少地质灾害所造成的经济损失，促进流域内社会、经济、生态环境的可持续发展。     

200 hPa高空急流与宁夏春季沙尘暴过程的特征分析

 利用NCAR/NCEP全球再分析资料，首先分析了1955年到2003年宁夏春季沙尘暴过程与200 hPa急流的关系，发现2月、3月200 hPa的U、V风场与宁夏春季沙尘暴关系密切。然后对1970\_1999年66次宁夏强和特强沙尘暴过程发生前200 hPa急流的演变情况进行了分析，结果表明：宁夏强和特强沙尘暴过程发生前后，高空急流主要表现为3种类型：一是西风急流型;二是副热带急流型;三是西风急流与副热带急流振荡合并型。最后以2001年4月8日宁夏特强沙尘暴天气过程为例，对其发生前后高空急流演变与沙尘暴落区、垂直环流特征及其对沙尘暴的作用进行了分析和探讨，得到了一些新的启示。     

气溶胶光学厚度的分布特征及其与沙尘天气的关系

 利用MODIS卫星遥感光学厚度资料，分析了中国大气气溶胶光学厚度的时空分布特征，并与同期沙尘天气进行了对比和相关分析，结果表明：①中国主要内陆地区的气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Thickness，简称AOT)分布有4个高值区：①分别位于南疆盆地和青海\,甘肃、内蒙古中西部地区、四川盆地和长江黄河下游地区。②春季北方特别是西北的AOT值明显高于南方，冬季南北AOT值差别不大。③南疆盆地和内蒙古中东部地区AOT值随季节变化明显，而四川盆地、长江黄河下游地区AOT值没有明显的季节变化。④南疆盆地、青海、内蒙古等地区沙尘天气过程与AOT值同步变化。⑤在沙尘天气的多发区，气溶胶光学厚度与沙尘天气有较好的相关性；沙尘天气的少发区，气溶胶光学厚度与沙尘天气基本不相关。因此可以推断，中国北方，特别是干旱荒漠区，大气气溶胶主要来自沙尘天气过程引起的地面沙尘释放。     

Assessing agreement of measurements and predictions in geomorphology

Commonly in geomorphology measurements by different methods are compared to see how far they agree (i.e. are equal), as are predictions from models and corresponding observations. Such assessment usually employs scatter plots, correlation and possibly regression. More appropriate and more effective methods include plotting differences versus means and summary by concordance correlation and other measures of agreement. These methods, some new to geomorphology, are explained and discussed with a variety of examples using fluvial, hillslope, glacial and coastal data.     

华北汛期降水与青藏高原地表温度的相关分析探讨

利用1980～2002年青藏高原月平均地表温度、1957～2002年我国华北地区104站月降水,分析了青藏高原地表温度与华北以及各分区汛期(7、8月)降水的可能联系,结果表明,青藏高原5月地表温度与华北地区汛期降水具有显著的正相关,高相关区域位于高原的东北部和西南部。华北地区汛期降水偏少年,青藏高原5月地温以负距平为主；降水偏多年,青藏高原5月地温为大范围的正距平,距平中心也位于高原的东北和西南部。SVD的分析表明,青藏高原5月地表温度和华北地区汛期降水的第一典型场表现出一致的变化特点,前者的分布型态与华北地区干旱或洪涝对应的合成分布以及相关系数场相似,高值区域分别位于高原的东北部和西南部地区,后者的高值区域,位于华北中部和东部地区。华北不同区域汛期降水与青藏高原地表温度的相关有明显的差异,华北中部和东部与5月高原地温的正相关最显著,其它地区与上年10～12月地温的负相关最显著,同时,影响各分区夏季降水的高原地温关键区也有所不同。