A New Probability of Detection Model for Updating Crack Distribution of Offshore Structures

1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun…     

海面水包油乳化液溢油量等效估算方法研究

激光诱导荧光(LIF)是一种主动光学探测技术,该技术已在海面未乳化溢油油种鉴别及油膜厚度评估方面取得了一定的研究成果,但乳化溢油的监测理论基础和探测方法尚未成熟。溢油乳化物的量化会直接影响溢油污染的应急处理和灾害评估,但目前对溢油乳化液溢油量的计算尚未有研究报道。本文以水包油乳化液为研究对象,基于等效思想,根据油量相等建立了水包油乳化液与油膜的荧光检测等效模型,并依据光的辐射传输机理推导出等效油膜厚度的估算公式,最后采用仿真实例对估算方法的适用性和有效性进行了验证。实验结果表明,当水包油乳化液含油率小于12×10^-6,厚度小于5.98 cm时,利用所提出的等效方法能有效计算出水包油实际溢油厚度。该方法可为海面乳化溢油量的估算提供一种创新性的方法,具有良好的借鉴意义和实际应用价值。     

Deriving Changjiang coastal zone wind from C-band SAR and its application to salinity simulation

Wind plays an important role in hydrodynamic processes such as the expansion of Changjiang （Yangtze） River Diluted Water （CDW）, and shelf circulation in the Changjiang estuary. Thus, it is essential to include wind in the numerical simulation of these phenomena. Synthetic aperture radar （SAR） with high resolution and wide spatial coverage is valuable for measuring spatially inhomogeneous ocean surface wind fields. We have collected 87 ERS-2 SAR images with wind-induced streaks that cover the Cbangjiang coastal area, to verify and improve the validity of wind direction retrieval using the 2D fast Fourier transform method. We then used these wind directions as inputs to derive SAR wind speeds using the C-band model. To demonstrate the applicability of the algorithms, we validated the SAR-retrieved wind fields using QuikSCAT measurements and the atmospheric Weather Research Forecasting model. In general, we found good agreement between the datasets, indicating the reliability and applicability of SAR- retrieved algorithms under different atmospheric conditions. We investigated the main error sources of this process, and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the wind speed errors caused by the effect of speckle, uncertainties in wind direction, and inaccuracies in the normalized radar cross section. Finally, we used the SAR-retrieved wind fields to simulate the salinity distribution off the Changjiang estuary. The findings of this study will be valuable for wind resource assessment and the development of future numerical ocean models based on SAR images.     

坡面流与坡面侵蚀动力过程研究的最新进展*

在回顾了坡面流及坡面侵蚀过程研究的简史与现状的基础之上,全面总结了坡面流形成机理及其模式、坡面流水动力学特性、坡面侵蚀动力过程及其侵蚀产沙模型诸方面研究的最新进展,并对坡面流各要素分析及坡面小侵蚀陡坎的形成等进行了一些探讨。最后,提出了坡面流及坡面侵蚀过程研究中存在的主要问题及未来展望。     

深水工况下弧面胸墙沉箱堤的反射形态分析

为推广应用新型弧面胸墙沉箱堤,结合模型试验和数值模拟对比分析了深水工况下弧面胸墙沉箱堤和削角胸墙沉箱堤的反射形态。波面和波压的数值结果与试验数据吻合良好,验证了数值方法的有效性。反射系数表明,入射波浪在与弧面胸墙沉箱堤相互作用过程中的能量损耗最小,其反射强于削角胸墙沉箱堤。波面和流速包络图显示,两种堤型均在堤前形成了部分立波系统,腹点和节点以四分之一波长的距离增量交替出现,胸墙和直立部分产生的反射波存在相位差,导致初始腹点的位置向海侧偏移。弧面胸墙沉箱堤前叠合波的相位差影响最小,腹点包络高度最大,节点包络高度最小,反射效应最明显。两种堤型前中下层水流的周期平均速度均较小且对称,表明底床泥沙不会产生趋势性输移,但迎浪基床上方的环流系统可能引起局部冲刷。相对而言,弧面胸墙沉箱堤前的环流强度最弱,更有利于冲刷防护。     

深圳香港海域可能最高潮位和浪高计算分析

基于历史数据的分析,选择历史上强度最强的台风"荷贝"作为设计超强台风的强度,最不利路径的台风"雪莉"作为设计路径,作为深圳香港海域设计超强台风。采用海洋-陆架区-海岸三重嵌套网格建立的天文潮-风暴潮-台风浪耦合模型计算设计超强台风遭遇天文大潮的高潮位登陆时深圳香港海域的可能最高潮位和浪高。计算结果表明,大鹏湾北部和香港吐露港内,可能最高风暴潮位在3.00 m以上,浪高达到4.0～5.0 m;香港维多利亚港风暴潮位2.92 m,深圳香港水域东部南部在2.50 m以上,浪高3.0～5.0 m。可能最高风暴潮位比大鹏湾防潮警戒水位高1.62 m左右,比香港维多利亚港200年一遇的潮位高0.50 m。     

湘鄂西—渝东褶皱带多重滑脱构造变形特征与构造模型

湘鄂西—渝东褶皱带为多层系、多类型天然气大型聚集区,揭示其结构与成因将为拓展该区勘探新领域提供重要依据,为其它陆内强构造变形区的油气评价提供重要参考。本文利用两条拼接的跨研究区的地震反射剖面,以断层相关褶皱几何学、运动学分析方法为指导,对湘鄂西—渝东褶皱带进行精细构造解析。研究结果表明,湘鄂西—渝东褶皱带构造变形主要与4套区域滑脱层有关,具有多层次拆离、多级别滑脱、多方向冲断及多样式组合的特征。纵向上由深及浅依次以低幅度构造、双重构造和冲褶构造为主要特征,空间上自南东向北西总体为由基底滑脱向盖层滑脱、由单层滑脱向多层滑脱的陆内递进式变形。湘鄂西—渝东地区存在多套“源—储—盖”组合,基于多重滑脱构造变形系统及“相对稳定”保存单元概念,认为未来常规天然气勘探可重点关注寒武系盐下领域,非常规页岩气需继续加强对寒武系、志留系、二叠系构造弱变形区的评价。     

1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

Model of wind-generated ambient noise in stratified shallow water

In order to build a rapid ocean ambient noise model adapted for a stratified shallow water, a hybrid model of normal mode method (for far field) and ray method (for near field) is suggested which combines the advantages of both methods. Since the near field of wind-generated noise is not sensitive to the sound speed profile, the sound speed profile is regarded as a constant; which makes the model rapid and accurate. The simulation results are in agreement with those of the wave model.     

论多种数据联合反演的模式及算法

针对日益丰富的数据资料，综述了大地测量反演的发展进程，论述了多种数据联合反演的意义和必要性，给出了兼顾权比确定的大地测量、地震和地质三类数据的联合反演模式及采用水准测量、GPS和重力三种数据联合反演断层参数的具体公式，特别介绍了求解优化问题所有全局最优解的区间算法，并给出了基本算例，结果体现了区间算法无可比拟的优越性及其在大地测量反演领域中的应用前景。