吉林省敦化市乡村人群气候变化感知的偏差及群体分异研究

通过问卷调查,具体分析了吉林省敦化市乡村人群对气候变化趋势和极端冷暖年的感知偏差及人群分异.发现乡村人群对气候变化趋势的感知与科学事实比较符合,由于对变暖转折年代更敏感,因而对变暖的确认度在一些时段与科学事实在变化程度或幅度上存在比较大的偏差.乡村人群对极端冷暖年不如对趋势感知的准确度高.经验积累影响乡村人群对气候变化...     

末次冰消期以来东海内陆架沉积速率及其气候环境响应

对位于东海内陆架浙-闽沿岸泥质带的EC2005孔岩性、粒度以及AMS14C年代进行了分析,着重探讨了研究区自末次冰消期以来的沉积速率变化,划分出4个大的沉积阶段和4次快速沉积事件.千年时间尺度上大的沉积阶段主要受控于物源供应、海平面变化以及可容空间的大小.百年时间尺度上揭示的4次快速沉积事件主要受控于东亚冬季风的增强或...     

末次冰消期以来东海内陆架沉积物磁化率的环境意义

对末次冰消期以来东海内陆架沉积物磁化率的影响因素及其蕴含的古环境信息进行了探讨.对位于浙闽沿岸泥质沉积中心附近的EC2005孔沉积物磁化率、岩性、粒度、常量元素、矿物以及AMS<'14>C测年数据进行了综合分析,得出以下主要结论:EC2005孔沉积物磁化率的变化受多种因素的制约,不同层位的主要控制因素不同,60.20～...     

加拿大老年人口状况及发展态势

采用加拿大2006年人口普查资料,结合旅居加国的经历,统计分析了加拿大老年人口的发展趋势和现状.分析显示:加拿大老年人口前期(1921-1981年)增长慢,后期(2001—2006年)增长快,老年人口数量中,女性比男性多,寿命比男性长,老年人口分布集中在安大略省;人口老龄化发展过程给社会带来了一系列问题,老龄化使政府和企业的养老负担日益加重,瞻养率大幅度下降,政府每年支付养老金及医疗费用的数量增加,导致劳动力市场压力增大,劳动资源不足.文中还介绍了人口专家为解决加国人口老龄化问题所提出的建议和对策,以及加拿大政府在老年人口养老与医疗方面的一些做法,认为值得中国借鉴.     

Microfacies and diagenesis of older Pleistocene (pre‐last glacial maximum) reef deposits,Great Barrier Reef,Australia (IODP Expedition 325): A quantitative approach

During Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 325, 34 holes were drilled along five transects in front of the Great Barrier Reef of Australia, penetrating some 700 m of late Pleistocene reef deposits (post‐glacial; largely 20 to 10 kyr bp ) in water depths of 42 to 127 m. In seven holes, drilled in water depths of 42 to 92 m on three transects, older Pleistocene (older than last glacial maximum, >20 kyr bp ) reef deposits were recovered from lower core sections. In this study, facies, diagenetic features, mineralogy and stable isotope geochemistry of 100 samples from six of the latter holes were investigated and quantified. Lithologies are dominated by grain‐supported textures, and were to a large part deposited in high‐energy, reef or reef slope environments. Quantitative analyses allow 11 microfacies to be defined, including mixed skeletal packstone and grainstone, mudstone‐wackestone, coral packstone, coral grainstone, coralline algal grainstone, coral‐algal packstone, coralline algal packstone, Halimeda grainstone, microbialite and caliche. Microbialites, that are common in cavities of younger, post‐glacial deposits, are rare in pre‐last glacial maximum core sections, possibly due to a lack of open framework suitable for colonization by microbes. In pre‐last glacial maximum deposits of holes M0032A and M0033A (>20 kyr bp ), marine diagenetic features are dominant; samples consist largely of aragonite and high‐magnesium calcite. Holes M0042A and M0057A, which contain the oldest rocks (>169 kyr bp ), are characterized by meteoric diagenesis and samples mostly consist of low‐magnesium calcite. Holes M0042A, M0055A and M0056A (>30 kyr bp ), and a horizon in the upper part of hole M0057A, contain both marine and meteoric diagenetic features. However, only one change from marine to meteoric pore water is recorded in contrast with the changes in diagenetic environment that might be inferred from the sea‐level history. Values of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon are consistent with these findings. Samples from holes M0032A and M0033A reflect largely positive values (δ¹⁸O: ?1 to +1‰ and δ¹³C: +1 to +4‰), whereas those from holes M0042A and M0057A are negative (δ¹⁸O: ?4 to +2‰ and δ¹³C: ?8 to +2‰). Holes M0055A and M0056A provide intermediate values, with slightly positive δ¹³C, and negative δ¹⁸O values. The type and intensity of meteroric diagenesis appears to have been controlled both by age and depth, i.e. the time available for diagenetic alteration, and reflects the relation between reef deposition and sea‐level change.     

浙江省年平均气温百年序列的构建

长时间气温序列是气候变化研究的基础,早期气温观测台站的缺乏在某种程度上限制了区域性气温长序列的建立。将局部台站的气温观测值向代表全区水平的气温观测值转化,亦是一种有效利用早期少数气温站点构建区域性气温长序列的重要途径。基于浙江省气温观测台站资料的统计分析,提出了局部台站观测值全局修正（GAoSV）的气温长序列建立方式,并利用该方式构建了浙江省年平均气温百年序列。研究结果表明：省级区域内气温局部台站观测与全区台站观测,两者的气温年值变化具有高度的趋同相关性,所提出的GAoSV气温序列构建方式可在少数气温观测台站的情况下,有效保证全区气温序列的构建可信度,且随着观测台站数量增多,其构建可信度会进一步增大,该方式尤其适合早期气温观测台站稀缺（仅有1～2个）的省市级气温长序列的建立。以GAoSV方式建立的浙江省年平均气温百年序列显示,1905-2012年浙江省年平均气温总体在逐渐升高,增温速率约为0．11℃／10a,1980-2012年期间气温的上升趋势更为明显,增温速率约为0．51℃／10a。     

Soil fertility evolution and landscape dynamics in a Mediterranean area: a case study in the Sant Llorenç Natural Park (Barcelona, NE Spain)

The cartography of land covers was used to study fertility and soil evolution in a mountainous Mediterranean area during the anthropocene period ( Crutzen P J 2002 Geology of mankind Nature 415 23). The aim was to determine changes in fertility as agricultural lands were abandoned in the 14 000 hectare area that constitutes Sant Llorenç del Munt Natural Park in a pre-coastal Catalan mountain range (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula). The analysis of land covers using vegetation maps, orthorectified images and aerial photography has allowed us to differentiate six vegetation groups: holm-oak wood, pine grove, oak wood, scrub, active agricultural fields and abandoned agricultural fields. The anthropic covers over the past 100 years were subdivided into five categories: active fields and those abandoned over four time periods. Study variables include field shape (concave, convex, flat), orientation (north, south) and slope (ranging from 12º to 24º). The parameters used for the physical-chemical soil analysis included organic material, phosphorous and potassium; fertility was classified based on groups, types and classes. The results indicate that even when the visual appearance of certain landscapes is similar, the edaphic characteristics may be very different. Changes induced by human disturbance share this phenomenon. Therefore, land management should be considered globally, taking into account vegetation, soils and water as interdependent factors, since it is their interaction that produces landscape and most affects its evolution over time.     

Present and Late Pleistocene equilibrium line altitudes in Changbai Mountains, Northeast China

According to the glacial landforms and deposits with the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating results, two glacial stages of the last glacial cycle (LGC) and Late Glacial were identified. The Late Glacial stage (Meteorological Station glacier advance) took place about 11 ka (11.3±1.2 ka), and the last glacial maximum (LGM), named Black Wind Mouth glacier advance, occurred at 20 ka (20.0±2.1 ka). Based on the Ohmura’s formula in which there is a relationship between summer (JJA) atmospheric temperature (T) and the annual precipitation (P) at ELA, the present theoretical equilibrium line altitude (ELAt) in Changbai Mountains was 3380±100 m. Six methods of accumulation–area ratio (AAR), maximum elevation of lateral moraines (MELM), toe–to headwall altitude ratios (THAR), the terminal to summit altitudinal (TSAM), the altitude of cirque floor (CF), and the terminal to average elevation of the catchment area (Hofer) were used for calculation of the former ELAs in different stages. These methods provided the ELA for a range of 2250–2383 m with an average value of 2320±20 m during the LGM, which is 200 m higher than the value of previous investigation. The snowlines during the Late Glacial are 2490 m on northern slope, and 2440 m on western slope. The results show that the snowline on northern slope is 50 m higher than that on western slope during the Late Glacial, and the average snowline is 2465m. The ELA △ values were more than 1000 m during the LGM, and about 920 m lower than now during the Late Glacial stage respectively. Compared with Taiwanese and Japanese mountains in East Asia during the LGM, the effect of the uplift on ELA in Changbai Mountains during the glaciations (i.e. 20 m uplift in the LGM and 11 m in the Late Glacial) is not obvious.     

Cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years

Land use/cover change induced by human activities has emerged as a “global” phenomenon with Earth system consequences. Northeast China is an area where the largest land cultivation activities by migrants have happened in China during the past 300 years. In this paper, methods including documentary data calibration and multi-sourced data conversion model are used to reconstruct historical cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years. It is concluded that human beings have remarkably changed the natural landscape of the region by land cultivation in the past 300 years. Cropland area has increased almost exponentially during the past 300 years, especially during the past 100 years when the ratio of cropland cover changed from 10% to 20%. Until the middle of the 19th century, the agricultural area was still mainly restricted in Liaoning Province. From the late 19th century to the early 20th century, dramatic changes took place when the northern boundary of cultivation had extended to the middle of Heilongjiang Province. During the 20th century, three agricultural regions with high ratio of cropland cover were formed after the two phases of spatial expansion of cropland area in 1900s–1930s and 1950s–1980s. Since 1930s–1940s, the expansion of new cultivated area have invaded the forest lands especially in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40571165) and Innovation Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-315)     

东北地区近百年降水时间序列变化规律的小波分析

利用1905~2005年东北地区哈尔滨、长春、沈阳和大连的降水时间序列资料,采用距平和Morlet小波分析方法,研究了东北地区降水变化的多时间尺度的周期性性变化规律,并对东北地区近期降水状况进行了预测。结果表明:近百年来东北地区年降水量呈现较显著下降趋势,整个东北地区降幅为-5.2mm/10a;长春为-12.7mm/10a;哈尔滨为-7.1mm/10a;大连为-2.7mm/10a;沈阳略为上升趋势为1.3mm/10a。东北地区的年降水量存在着区域性的多重时间尺度下的周期变化特征,2a~3a、5a~6a,10a和50a左右的长期振荡周期具有全域性;长春、哈尔滨年降水的主要控制周期是20a左右;5a~6a的短周期和50年的长周期变化也对年降水有较大影响。